May 21, 2020
In response to many requests, we've created a map that will track the electoral vote based exclusively on polling averages. While good as a benchmark, keep in mind that polling this far from the election may ultimately prove to be of limited predictive value.
If the difference between Biden and Trump is less than 5%, these will display as toss-ups. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99%. Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more.
Where polling is not yet available, we are using the actual margin between Clinton and Trump in 2016.