May 23, 2020
On Friday, Inside Elections updated its House ratings for the November elections, shifting 15 races. Changes were made to eight competitive races, with seven more moving to safe, taking them out of play - per this forecaster - for November.
The main takeaway from the full report (subscription required): "Even after losing 40 seats in 2018, there’s no guarantee Republicans won’t lose more in November. With less than six months to go before Election Day, not only is the House majority not at risk, Democrats could gain seats. Right now, the most likely outcome is close to the status quo and fall into a range of a GOP gain of five seats to a Democratic gain of five seats."
Three seats moved to safe Democratic: CA-10, CA-45, NY-19. Four more moved to safe GOP: NC-9, OH-12, TX-2, TX-31. In terms of competitive races, CA-25 starts at Tilt Democratic after the Republican victory in this month's special election. The other seven changes moved one category each in favor of Democrats. NY-22 and UT-4 now sit at Tilt D, with IL-14 and NJ-3 moving to Lean D. NV-3 is now Likely D. The final two seats are GOP-held, with MT-AL now at Likely R and TX-21 at Leans R.
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection
50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984
A few interesting contests, although the incumbent party is favored in November in all these races
The Keystone State's mix of urban, suburban and rural areas gives it a politically balanced statewide electorate. It will again be a presidential battleground in 2020.