Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Hawaii Democrats released results Saturday for the state's party-run primary.  Joe Biden finished first with 63% of the vote, winning 16 of the 24 pledged delegates. Bernie Sanders received 37% of the vote, winning the other 8 delegates.  Note that voting in this primary began before Sanders withdrew from the race on April 8.

The primary, originally scheduled for April 4, was changed to be run exclusively by mail in response to the pandemic. Ballots were due back by May 22.

On Friday, Inside Elections updated its House ratings for the November elections, shifting 15 races.  Changes were made to eight competitive races, with seven more moving to safe, taking them out of play - per this forecaster - for November.  

In response to many requests, we've created a map that will track the electoral vote based exclusively on polling averages. While good as a benchmark, keep in mind that polling this far from the election may ultimately prove to be of limited predictive value.

If the difference between Biden and Trump is less than 5%, these will display as toss-ups. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99%.  Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more.

Where polling is not yet available, we are using the actual margin between Clinton and Trump in 2016.  

Oregon holds its regularly-scheduled primary elections Tuesday. With a long history of mail-in voting, the state was not forced to change the date due to the pandemic. Ballots can be returned by mail or dropped off at official drop boxes across the state. In either case, ballots must be received by 8:00 PM local time.^{1 1}The entire state, except for a portion of Malheur County in the southeast corner of the state, is in the Pacific Time Zone. Live results will appear below after 11:00 PM Eastern Time.

President (Democratic): Firmly entrenched as the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden won all 29 delegates in last week's Nebraska primary. Notable in that it was the first time this year it has happened.  Heading into Tuesday, Biden has 1,464 of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination.  61 additional delegates are available in Oregon. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan said Saturday that he would not run a 3rd party campaign for president in 2020.  

After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) May 16, 2020

Amash, who left the Republican Party last summer to become an independent, announced in late April that he was forming an exploratory committee to seek the presidency. He officially joined the Libertarian Party, becoming its first U.S. House member.  He was expected to seek the party's nomination at its convention later this month.

As Michigan law precludes running for both president and congress, Amash said at the time he would not seek reelection to his House seat.  It is not clear if his position on that will shift with today's announcement.

Cook Political updated its 2020 Senate ratings Friday, moving Georgia - the seat held by David Perdue (R) - from Likely to Leans Republican. This aligns it with the special election being held for Georgia's other Senate seat, as well as the forecaster's rating for Georgia in the Electoral College.

Read the Cook analysis >>

Here's the updated Cook Senate ratings map.  Click or tap for an interactive version to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

Republican Mike Garcia has won the special election in California's 25th congressional district. His opponent, Democrat Christy Smith conceded Wednesday afternoon, citing Garcia's lead in the vote counted thus far.

The current vote tally:

As expected, most of Tuesday's elections were decided pretty quickly.  Among the more notable races:

• Republican Tom Tiffany prevailed in the Wisconsin 7th district special election; keeping that seat in GOP hands

• Kara Eastman easily won the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's 2nd district; setting up a rematch of 2018 against incumbent Republican Don Bacon

• Joe Biden received over 77% of the vote in Nebraska's Democratic presidential primary, winning at least 27 of the 29 available delegates

California District 25 Special Election

The one race that remains undecided is the special election to fill the vacancy in California's 25th district.  Republican Mike Garcia has a lead of 56%-44% in the votes that have been counted thus far.  While Garcia seems more likely to win here than not, no winner has yet been declared. The vast majority of ballots in this race were cast by mail, and many remain to be processed.  

If Garcia does win, it will be the first GOP pickup of a Democratic-held U.S. House seat in the state since 1998.