June 24, 2020
Rep. Eliot Engel has lost his primary to progressive political newcomer Jamaal Bowman. As of about 1:30 PM Wednesday afternoon, Bowman held a 62% to 35% advantage over the 16-term incumbent.
Our election results partner, Decision Desk HQ, noted that Bowman took an unexpectedly large lead in the early and Election Day voting and is ahead in the portion of both counties (Bronx and Westchester) that make up the district. While absentee ballots remain to be counted, the margin Engel would need is such that the call for Bowman can be made.
This article from Forbes details some of the missteps Engel's campaign made along the way.
This is a deep blue district: Engel was unopposed in 2018 and no Republicans filed to run this year. While there may be one or more 3rd party nominees on the ballot, Bowman is all but certain to be the next member of Congress from the district.
Engel becomes the fourth member of the House to lose a primary this year. As Dave Wasserman notes, that is right around the average for recent cycles.
The seat will be vacant from the start of the next Congress until after a February 9 special election
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection