There are no primaries for the next two weeks; the calendar picks up again on August 4. Aside from Connecticut (August 11), presidential primaries are complete. Joe Biden will become the Democratic nominee the week of August 17; President Trump will be renominated the following week.
However, there are still a considerable number of states with downballot primaries. In terms of what we track, this includes congressional and gubernatorial contests, although there are often a wide variety of other races (e.g., judicial, state legislative) on the ballot. 14 states will have these in August, with another four during the first half of September. There are also primary runoffs in three states.
This week, there are congressional primaries in Maine and primary runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The largest share of attention is expected to fall on the U.S. Senate races; we've grouped those together in their own section below. In each case, the winner will challenge an incumbent in November. All three races - to varying degrees - are on the competitive radar in November.
Most of the polls across the three states close at 8:00 PM ET; check back for live results after that time.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
8:00 PM
Alabama*, Maine, Texas (CT)
9:00 PM
Texas (MT)
* A very small portion of the state along the Georgia border observes Eastern Time. Those polls close at 7:00 ET.
Alabama (Runoff): One of Donald Trump's earliest supporters, Former Sen. Jeff Sessions would like his old job back. Unfortunately for Sessions, the president is no longer a fan. As Attorney General, he recused himself from Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, earning the president's enmity. Sessions would be forced out in late 2018.
Trump is actively supporting former Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville. The runoff was necessitated when no candidate received 50% of the vote in the March 3 primary. Tuberville finished first with 33%, Sessions was about two points behind.
Tuberville has led most runoff polling since the primary, although there's been only one recent survey released. He was up by 16 points in that one. The winner will meet Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November, in what represents the best GOP pick-up opportunity on this year's Senate map. Jones has trailed both men in polling for the general election, which has a consensus rating of Leans Republican.
In its latest analysis of the electoral map, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved seven states out of the 'safe' column for Donald Trump. Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah are all now rated Likely Republican.
Trump remains the favorite in all of them, but Sabato says the "ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead."
Their current electoral map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Joe Biden won Puerto Rico's Democratic presidential primary Sunday. Originally scheduled for March 29, the primary was first moved to April 26 and then indefinitely postponed.
After today, only Connecticut remains on the presidential primary calendar. Voters there go to the polls on August 11. Plenty of downballot primaries remain, however. 14 states vote in August, with another 4 during the first half of September.
Louisiana holds its presidential primaries Saturday. Originally scheduled for April 4, the primary was first moved to June 20 before being postponed a second time. Polls are open until 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Results will appear below after that time.
Puerto Rico holds its Democratic presidential primary Sunday. On Tuesday, there are runoffs in Alabama and Texas, along with congressional primaries in Maine. Several interesting races that night; we'll have an overview as it gets closer.
On Friday, Inside Elections made eight changes to its 2020 Senate ratings. All moved in the direction of Democrats challenging GOP incumbents seeking reelection.
Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe to Likely Republican
Georgia (special) and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican
July is a quiet month on the election calendar. Tuesday brings us the Delaware and New Jersey presidential primaries, rescheduled from April 28. There are also congressional primaries in New Jersey.
Looking ahead, Louisiana and Puerto Rico11Democrats only have scheduled presidential primaries this weekend. That wraps up the presidential primary calendar, except for Connecticut (August 11).
Next Tuesday, July 14, there are congressional primaries in Maine and primary runoff elections in Alabama and Texas.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states can require Electoral College members to cast their vote for the candidate to whom they were pledged to support. The decision was unanimous.
Recent court decisions, in cases arising out of the 2016 presidential election, had come to opposite conclusions about this issue. That year, Donald Trump won states (and a district in Maine) worth 306 electoral votes; Hillary Clinton won states with 232 electoral votes. When the actual vote of Electors took place on December 19, ten electors attempted to cast votes for others. Two of the Clinton electors (one each in Colorado and Minnesota) were replaced, a third (in Maine) ultimately changed their vote to Clinton.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
