Rhode Island holds its 2018 primaries on Wednesday, September 12th. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will be available on this page after that time. Reload for the latest totals.
Democratic Gina Raimondo is attempting to win a 2nd term. In the 2014 gubernatorial election, she defeated Republican nominee Allan Fung by about 4.5%. A 2018 general election rematch is a distinct possibility, although both must first get past primary challengers. The centrist Raimondo is facing a more liberal opponent, former Secretary of State Matt Brown.
Rhode Island Senate Primaries
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is heavily favored to win a 3rd term in November.
Rhode Island House Primaries
The state has two congressional districts, both held by Democrats. Both incumbents are expected to win reelection in November.
The final week of the 2018 primary calendar has arrived. Three days, three Northeastern states; although for one of those it is the completion of a split primary. New Hampshire kicks things off Tuesday; see below for a preview and live results. Rhode Island holds its primaries on Wednesday. The party primaries for governor are what we'll be watching there. New York wraps things up Thursday, with primaries for non-Federal offices. For our purposes, that is just the high-profile Democratic gubernatorial primary featuring incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo and actress/activist Cynthia Nixon.
New Hampshire Primaries
Most New Hampshire polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, with the remainder closing at 8:00 PM. Live results will be available on this page after that time. Reload for the latest totals.
New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only two states where governor serve for two years instead of four. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is seeking a 2nd term. He will face the Democratic primary winner, either former State Sen. Molly Kelly or Steve Marchand, the former Mayor of Portsmouth. Marchand ran for governor in 2016, losing the Democratic primary. There has been no recent polling. Sununu will start out the favorite against whichever Democrat wins.
New Hampshire House Primaries
The state has two congressional districts, both held by Democrats. District 1 is particularly competitive in general elections. That district alternated between Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta in the four elections from 2010 through 2016. In 2016, Shea-Porter bested Guinta by about 1.3%, while Donald Trump won here by 1.6%. It was one of just 12 districts nationwide that elected a Democrat while voting for the president.
Neither Shea-Porter or Guinta are running in 2018, with the open seat generating a very crowded primary field in both parties. Most of the Democratic establishment has endorsed New Hampshire Executive Council member Chris Pappas. The notable exception is Rep. Shea-Porter, who has gotten behind her former chief of staff Naomi Andrews. Pappas and Maura Sullivan, a former Marine captain and Pentagon official, are the frontrunners, although Andrews is also in the mix. Levi Sanders, son of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is also on the ballot. On the Republican side, State Sen. Andy Sanborn or Eddie Edwards, a former police chief, seem to have the best chance to move on.
Democratic incumbent Rep. Ann Kuster is likely to win a fourth term regardless of which Republican is nominated in the 2nd district.
Florida Rep. Ron DeSantis has resigned from Congress to focus on his campaign to be the state's next governor. DeSantis asked that his resignation be effective September 1, although his letter to Speaker Ryan is dated September 10.
DeSantis recently won the Republican nomination for governor, helped along by the strong support of President Trump. He will meet Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in one of the marquee races this November. Incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R) is termed out; he is running for Senate against incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson (D).
DeSantis was in his third term representing Florida's 6th congressional district; he and Trump both won here by about 17% in 2016. The district is seen as likely to stay in Republican hands, although it could prove more competitive if there's a strong Democratic wave. The party nominees are Republican Michael Waltz and Democrat Nancy Soderberg.
Sen. Tom Carper is facing a primary challenge from the left by a political novice, Kerri Evelyn Harris. While Carper is likely to win, we have seen Democratic House incumbents ousted by progressive insurgents this year, most recently this past Tuesday in the Massachusetts 7th district. There has been no recent polling of the race. Assuming Carper wins, he will be heavily favored to win a 4th term in November.
Delaware House Primary
The state is one of seven with a single at-large congressional district. Incumbent Democrat Lisa Rochester is expected to win a 2nd term against whichever Republican emerges from Thursday's primary.
Ayanna Pressley, who serves on the Boston City Council, defeated 10-term Rep. Michael Capuano in Tuesday's Massachusetts primary. The district, once represented by John F. Kennedy, is one of the most liberal in the country. As with Capuano in 2016, Pressley will have no Republican opponent in November. Capuano is the fourth House member to be ousted in a party primary this year.
All other U.S. House incumbents that faced primary challenges were victorious, and are expected to win re-election in November. In the 3rd district, where Rep. Niki Tsongas is retiring, a 10-way primary remained undecided. Daniel Koh and Lori Trahan were separated by fewer than 100 votes as of Wednesday AM.
Turning to the U.S. Senate race, Republican Geoff Diehl easily won a three-way primary. He will face incumbent Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren in November.
Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker won renomination; he will face Democrat Jay Gonzalez.
Both Warren and Baker are expected to easily win reelection.
There's a competitive three-way primary on the GOP side. Regardless of who wins, incumbent Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is expected to easily win a 2nd term in November.
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Primaries
Despite the strong Democratic lean of the state, incumbent Republican Charlie Baker is one of the most popular governors in the country and is expected to easily win a 2nd term this fall.
Massachusetts House Primaries
The state has 9 congressional districts, all held by Democrats. It is the state with the largest number of districts under single party control. All nine seats are expected to stay in Democratic control, so the real question is whether any incumbents lose in the primaries. Keep an eye on the 1st, 7th and 8th districts for possible upsets. There will definitely be a new Democratic member of Congress in the 3rd district; 10 are competing on the ballot to replace retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas.
A New York Times headline sums it up nicely: "A Black Progressive and a Trump Acolyte Win Florida Governor Primaries". Voters in both parties bypassed the establishment candidate. Democrats selected Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who upset former Rep. Gwen Graham. Republicans followed the endorsement of President Trump, choosing Rep. Ron DeSantis. The general election here thus takes on echoes of neighboring Georgia, both gubernatorial races "between left-leaning African-Americans banking on the region’s new, diversifying electorate, and ardent, Trump-style nationalists."
As expected, Gov. Rick Scott easily won the GOP nomination for Senate, setting up what will likely become one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history.
Rep. Martha McSally defeated hardliners Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in a race where Trump made no endorsement. Likely a pragmatic choice by the president, as neither Ward or Arpaio were seen as particularly good general election candidates. McSally will meet her congressional colleague, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in what will be a closely-contested general election.
Gov. Doug Ducey easily won renomination; he'll face David Garcia in November. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick won the Democratic nomination in Arizona's 2nd congressional district. This is the seat being vacated by McSally, and represents one of the best opportunities for a Democratic gain in November.
Businessman Kevin Stitt won the GOP gubernatorial runoff; he'll meet Democrat Drew Edmondson in November. While Oklahoma is a deep red state, a Democratic flip is not out of the question here in November. Outgoing GOP Gov. Mary Fallin is one of the most unpopular in the country, Edmondson is a strong candidate and polling thus far has him doing better against Stitt than the now-defeated Cornett.
The final big primary day of 2018 comes at us this week, with Arizona and Florida holding contests this Tuesday. There are also a few runoff elections in Oklahoma.
Arizona
Polls close at 7:00 PM local time (9:00 Eastern). Where do I vote?
Senate: Sen. John McCain's death has created a vacancy that will be filled by Gov. Doug Ducey. By law, that replacement must be a Republican, although given Ducey's party affiliation that would be expected in any case. It will be interesting to see what direction he goes. The person selected will serve until a special election is held in 2020. The winner of that will complete the final two years of McCain's term.
The state's other Senate seat is up in 2018 and will be a fiercely-contested general election race. Sen. Jeff Flake is retiring. On Tuesday, we'll mostly be watching the Republican primary, where Rep. Martha McSally is hoping to fend off former State Sen. Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Ward previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2016, where she lost the Republican primary to McCain. McSally has opened up a lead in the most recent polls; a win by Ward or Arpaio would increase the likelihood that this seat flips to the Democrats in November. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is expected to be the Democratic nominee.
Governor: Gov. Ducey is running for re-election. He is expected to win his primary and will face the winner of a three-way Democratic contest. Ducey will start out the favorite in this race.
House: The state has nine congressional districts. Reps. McSally (AZ-02) and Sinema (AZ-09) are foregoing re-election to run for the U.S. Senate. McSally's seat is a major target for Democrats this fall. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is favored in a crowded Democratic primary, while Lea Marquez Peterson appears to have an edge for the GOP. Sinema's seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands; former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton will be the nominee.
Florida
Polls close at 7:00 PM local time (7:00 Eastern except 8:00 PM Eastern for parts of the Panhandle). Where do I vote?
Senate: Gov. Rick Scott faces only nominal competition; he'll meet Sen. Bill Nelson in November. The general election is seen as a toss-up, although Scott has had a small but consistent lead in recent polls. Democrats already have an uphill climb to take control of the Senate, it will be that much harder should they lose the race here.
Governor: The chance to replace termed-out Gov. Rick Scott has created a very crowded primary field in both parties. For the GOP, Rep. Ron DeSantis and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam are the leading candidates. DeSantis' position in the race was significantly strengthened after an endorsement by President Trump in June. On the Democratic side, there seem to be several candidates with a shot at the nomination, including former Rep. Gwen Graham as well as the Mayor of Tallahassee and former Mayor of Miami Beach. The general election is a toss-up.
House: The state has 27 congressional districts. The GOP-held 26th and 27th districts in the very southern part of the state present good pick-up opportunities for Democrats. Both those districts were among 23 (before PA redistricting) that elected a Republican to Congress while voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, these two gave Clinton her largest margin of all such districts. The 27th is particularly vulnerable, where 15-term incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is retiring. One of the candidates running for the GOP nomination to replace her was abducted by aliens.
Oklahoma
Polls close at 7:00 PM local time (8:00 Eastern). Where do I vote?
The state will hold runoffs Tuesday for races where no candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 26th primary. This includes the GOP primary for governor and several congressional districts.
Primary Calendar
After Tuesday, there are only a few East Coast states that remain on the 2018 primary calendar
Republican Troy Balderson has been certified as the winner of the recent special election in Ohio's 12th congressional district. After absentee and provisional ballots were counted, Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor by 1,680 votes, or 0.8%.
Once Balderson is sworn in, Republicans will hold 237 seats, Democrats 193, with five vacancies. Those seats will remain unfilled until after the November 6th midterm elections.
Balderson and O'Connor will have a rematch for a full term this November. Most forecasters give a slight edge to Balderson at the moment. Donald Trump won here by about 11% in 2016.
