We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator. This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).
Bellwether: Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.
Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
The Cook Political Report has updated its electoral college outlook, making for changes. The most significant of these has Florida moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Axios reports that "Doug Sosnik, who was the White House political director during President Clinton's successful re-election race, is out with one of his famous political decks, six weeks out from the start of early voting for president."
"Trump changed our politics, but the coronavirus changed our country. Both of these accelerated a new era in American politics. 2020 is not 2016.
In an effort to explain away his abysmal poll numbers, Trump makes the case that today he is in the same position that he was in at this time in 2016, and he still won. The problem with that argument is that it’s a complete misreading of the 2020 election. In 2016, voters faced a choice between two candidates. In a re-election campaign, voters will see it as a referendum on Trump’s presidency – one that will long be remembered as the coronavirus election. At some level Trump grasps that the election is about him, but he mistakenly concludes that he’s an asset, not a liability.
The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.
The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.
Inside Elections has updated its electoral college outlook, making 19 adjustments (17 states + 2 districts), all of which are in the direction of Joe Biden. The last refresh of these ratings was in April, and the large number of changes reflects the shift in polling and President Trump's job approval ratings during the last three months.
"For three-and-a-half years, Trump’s job rating was arguably the most stable part of his presidency. With a committed and loyal base of Republicans for the president and a slightly larger committed and loyal group of Democrats against him, the country was on a trajectory to experience a close and competitive Electoral College contest with both parties fighting over a half-dozen or so key states.
The Cook Political Report updated its 2020 House outlook on Friday. It updated the ratings in 20 races, all in the direction of Democrats.
"President Trump's abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a "check and balance" message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats moving too far left under a potential Biden administration."
There are no primaries for the next two weeks; the calendar picks up again on August 4. Aside from Connecticut (August 11), presidential primaries are complete. Joe Biden will become the Democratic nominee the week of August 17; President Trump will be renominated the following week.
However, there are still a considerable number of states with downballot primaries. In terms of what we track, this includes congressional and gubernatorial contests, although there are often a wide variety of other races (e.g., judicial, state legislative) on the ballot. 14 states will have these in August, with another four during the first half of September. There are also primary runoffs in three states.
This week, there are congressional primaries in Maine and primary runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The largest share of attention is expected to fall on the U.S. Senate races; we've grouped those together in their own section below. In each case, the winner will challenge an incumbent in November. All three races - to varying degrees - are on the competitive radar in November.
Most of the polls across the three states close at 8:00 PM ET; check back for live results after that time.
Polls Close (Eastern Time)
Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
8:00 PM
Alabama*, Maine, Texas (CT)
9:00 PM
Texas (MT)
* A very small portion of the state along the Georgia border observes Eastern Time. Those polls close at 7:00 ET.
Alabama (Runoff): One of Donald Trump's earliest supporters, Former Sen. Jeff Sessions would like his old job back. Unfortunately for Sessions, the president is no longer a fan. As Attorney General, he recused himself from Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, earning the president's enmity. Sessions would be forced out in late 2018.
Trump is actively supporting former Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville. The runoff was necessitated when no candidate received 50% of the vote in the March 3 primary. Tuberville finished first with 33%, Sessions was about two points behind.
Tuberville has led most runoff polling since the primary, although there's been only one recent survey released. He was up by 16 points in that one. The winner will meet Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November, in what represents the best GOP pick-up opportunity on this year's Senate map. Jones has trailed both men in polling for the general election, which has a consensus rating of Leans Republican.
