Federal prosecutors indicted Rep. Christopher Collins on Wednesday, charging the third term Republican with securities fraud, wire fraud and making false statements. The charges relate to insider trading associated with a biotech firm.
Collins represents New York's 27th congressional district, a conservative district between Buffalo and Rochester. Collins won reelection by 34% in 2016, and was unopposed in the state's primary in late June. Sabato's Crystal Ball has modified its 2018 election rating from safe to likely Republican on news of the indictment.
Gonna move Collins' seat from Safe R to Likely R following news of his arrest. NY-27 (western NY) very tough seat (Trump +25) but Kathy Hochul almost held it against Collins in 2012 and Collins now has some... issues.
Results overview for the four state primaries and the Ohio special election held Tuesday August 7th.
Ohio 12th District Special Election
Republican Troy Balderson has a narrow lead over Democrat Danny O'Connor, with several thousand provisional and absentee ballots still to be counted. Balderson - and President Trump - have claimed victory, but the Associated Press says the race remains too close to call as of Wednesday morning. Oddly, the provisional ballots won't be counted for 10 days. If the final margin is less than 0.5%, there will be an automatic recount. The table below will show the latest results.
Regardless of who wins, the closeness of the race in this Republican-leaning district continues the trend of Democratic over performance in elections since Trump took office. Balderson and O'Connor will meet again in the November general election.
Trump-endorsed Secretary of State Kris Kobach and the current Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer were separated by just 0.1% - less than 200 votes - as of Wednesday morning. This race is also too close to call as of the time of this article. See the table below for the latest:
While either candidate will start out the favorite against Democratic nominee Laura Kelly, a Kobach victory would increase the odds for a Democratic takeover of this seat.
The Democratic nomination in the 3rd congressional district also remains undecided, with Sharice Davids and Brent Welder separated by 1%. Davids is attempting to become the first Native American woman elected to Congress. The winner will face incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in what is expected to be a highly competitive general election race in this Omaha-area district.
Primary voter turnout was the heaviest in at least 40 years. Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won their respective nominations. The general election is seen as a toss-up.
In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow will meet Republican John James, who won his primary with the help of a presidential endorsement. Stabenow is favored to win a 4th term in November.
Rashida Tlaib is expected to win the general election primary in Michigan's deep-blue 13th congressional district. She will run unopposed in November, and will become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress.
As expected, incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Missouri Atty. General Josh Hawley easily won their primaries. This sets up a highly competitive general election in a state Donald Trump won by nearly 20 points
Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell and Republican Susan Hutchison won the state's top-two Senate primary. Cantwell is expected to win a 4th term in November. The closeness of the aggregate party vote in the GOP-held 3rd and 5th districts indicates these races may be more competitive than expected in November. In top-two primaries, aggregate party vote has proved to be a good indicator of general election outcomes.
In the 3rd district, aggregate Democratic vote actually exceeded the Republican vote by a 50.3% to 49.7% margin. Contrast this to 2016, where incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler won a 4th term by nearly 24%. Donald Trump prevailed by 7% over Hillary Clinton here.
In the 5th district, seven-term incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who is the 4th most powerful Republican in the House, won by 19% in 2016, while Donald Trump won by 13%. In Tuesday's primary, aggregate Republican vote was 50.5% while the one Democrat on the ballot received 47.1%.
Voters in Ohio's 12th district will fill the vacancy created when Republican Pat Tiberi resigned in January. Despite the Republican lean of the district, recent polls have shown very little separation between the nominees, Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor. This is an extremely tight race for Ohio, where the closest margin of victory in a 2016 U.S. House race was over 18%*. Regardless of who wins, the two will meet again in the November general election.
Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern; reload this page for the latest live results after that time.
Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington hold primaries on Tuesday. There are races to watch in each state. For an overview and live results click or tap one of the links at the top of this page.
The final congressional special election before the 2018 midterms takes place this Tuesday and it is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Voters in Ohio's 12th district will fill the vacancy created when Republican Pat Tiberi resigned in January. The most recent poll of the race showed just one point separating the nominees, Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor. This is an extremely tight race for Ohio, where the closest margin of victory in a 2016 U.S. House race was over 18%*. Regardless of who wins, the two will meet again in the November general election.
Tuesday also brings us primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington. The poll closing times are listed in the table below, along with the number of congressional districts in the state - all are up for election in November - and whether there is a Senate and/or gubernatorial election in 2018.
If you live in one of these states, click or tap the name to find your polling location.
1 All times Eastern. Some states have local variations; it is recommended that you confirm the time for your particular polling place 2 Polls close 8:00 PM local time; all but a lightly populated portion of the Upper Peninsula is in the Eastern Time Zone 3 Polls close at 7:00 PM local time; all but a small portion of the state is in the Central Time Zone 4Predominantly vote by mail. Ballots must be postmarked on or before August 7 or dropped off in a ballot box by the closing time
Washington is a top-two state, similar to California. All candidates appear on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, moving on to the general election.
* A consequence of the state's highly gerrymandered congressional districts. Fortunately, Ohio voters recently approved a resolution that will modify the process beginning with the next redistricting in 2021.
A few highlights from Thursday's Tennessee primaries. For the vote totals for all congressional and gubernatorial primaries, go here.
Businessman Bill Lee emerged from a crowded field to win the Republican nomination. Rep. Diane Black finished 3rd, becoming the fifth House member to lose* in a bid for higher office. Lee will start out as the favorite against the Democratic nominee, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean. The current governor, Republican Bill Haslam, is termed-out.
As expected, GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn and Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen easily won their respective party's nomination. This is shaping up to be a highly competitive general election race. The current incumbent, Sen. Bob Corker, is retiring.
All five incumbents that faced a primary challenge were victorious. Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett and businessman John Rose won the open Republican nomination in the 2nd and 6th districts, respectively. State Senator Mark Green was unopposed for the GOP nomination in the open 7th district. These are very safe GOP districts - Donald Trump won each by over 35% in 2016 - and all three are likely headed to Congress in 2019.
* Idaho's Rep. Raul Labrador also lost a bid for governor, while Indiana's Todd Rokita and Luke Messer both lost in Indiana's U.S. Senate primary. In West Virginia, Evan Jenkins also lost his U.S. Senate primary. For more, see this List of 2018 House Retirements.
We don't usually see Thursday primaries, but Tennessee holds one this week. The state has both a Senate and gubernatorial race this year, along with elections in its 9 congressional districts. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, which is 7:00 PM local time for those in the Central Time Zone. Unlike many Southern states, there is no runoff - whomever gets the most votes moves on to the general election.
Results will appear below after the polls close. Reload the page for the latest numbers.
Tennessee Gubernatorial Primaries
Republican Governor Bill Haslam cannot run due to term limits. On the GOP side, Retiring Rep. Diane Black (TN-06) started out as the frontrunner, but the primary has turned into a four-way race that polling indicates is too close to call. Polling has Karl Dean well ahead on the Democratic side. The general election is seen as Likely Republican at this point.
Tennessee Senate Primaries
Republican Senator Bob Corker is not running for reelection. While both parties have contested primaries, the real action in this race is expected in November. Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN-07) and Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen should coast to their respective party nominations. Bredesen has had a small lead over Blackburn in most recent general election polling. However, this remains a deep red state - Donald Trump won by 26% in 2016. As such, the general consensus of this race at present is Leans Republican.
Tennessee House Primaries
Three Republican members of the Tennessee U.S. House delegation are not standing for reelection in November. This includes the aforementioned Diane Black & Marsha Blackburn, as well as the retiring 16-term incumbent in the 2nd district, John Duncan. While these three districts will have new names on the ballot, they are safe GOP districts. In fact, none of the state's nine districts is expected to be competitive this fall.
After a quiet month of July, the calendar picks up again next week. Tuesday the 7th will see primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state, along with a competitive special election in Ohio's 12th congressional district.
A new Monmouth University poll indicates another competitive special election is coming up next Tuesday, this time in Ohio's 12th congressional district. The Republican nominee, State Senator Troy Balderson leads by just one point over Democratic nominee Danny O'Connor, who is the Franklin County Recorder. Monmouth's prior poll of the race had Balderson up by 10%. Other recent polling has also shown a close race, although
The seat has been vacant since January, when former Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned his seat. This Central Ohio district leans Republican - Tiberi won reelection by 36% in 2016, while Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 11%. It has not elected a Democrat since 1980.
Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, these two will meet again in the November general election for a full two-year term in the 116th Congress that begins in January.
We've added a new 'tilt' ratings option on the interactive maps. It is currently available on the gubernatorial maps, with Senate and House to follow in the near future.
The tilt rating sits between toss-up and leans. The forecaster Inside Elections uses this designation for races that are highly competitive, but where one party has a slight edge. Among the 36 gubernatorial contests in 2018, they currently rate Michigan and Nevada as Tilt Democratic, with Alaska and Ohio Tilt Republican.
The current Inside Elections map follows. Use it as a starting point to create your own 2018 gubernatorial forecast:
Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp moved on to the general election after easily defeating the state's Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial runoff election. Recent polling had indicated that Kemp had moved ahead in the race, but none foresaw Kemp's 39% margin of victory.
Kemp will meet Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in the general election. Abrams is attempting to become the first black female governor in the nation's history. The most recent poll of the race, conducted by SurveyUSA, showed Kemp with a two point lead, well within the margin of error. It will be interesting to see if/how that margin changes now that the GOP nomination has been decided.
In the 6th district Democratic runoff, gun control advocate Lucy McBath defeated businessman Kevin Abel by 7.5%. McBath meets incumbent Republican Rep. Karen Handel in November. Handel will be seeking her first full term after winning a high-profile special election over Jon Ossoff in 2017. Handel will start out the favorite; although this is likely to be one of the most competitive districts in the state.
Meanwhile, in the 7th district Democratic runoff, college professor Carolyn Bourdeaux edged businessman David Kim for the nomination. Bourdeaux will face off against Republican Rep. Rob Woodall in November. This district is seen as a tougher 'get' for Democrats - Woodall is a four-term incumbent who won re-election by 21% in 2016. Trump won here by 7%, while his margin in the adjacent 6th district was under 2% over Hillary Clinton.
There are three runoff elections of note in Georgia Tuesday. Republicans will choose a nominee in the gubernatorial race, while Democrats will go to the polls to do the same in the state's 6th and 7th congressional districts.
Polls close at 7:00 PM. Results will begin to appear on this page shortly thereafter. Reload for the latest updates.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle faces off against Brian Kemp, the Secretary of State. Cagle received more of the vote (39% to Kemp's 25%) in the May 22nd primary and also led in early runoff polling. However, two of the most recent polls have Kemp well ahead by 18 points, while a third has him up by 6%. Kemp was also endorsed by President Trump in a tweet last week.
The winner will meet Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams in the general election. Abrams is attempting to become the first black female governor in the nation's history. The most recent poll of the race, conducted by SurveyUSA, shows a surprisingly competitive race in a state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1999. Both Cagle and Kemp lead Abrams by 2 points, well within the margin of error. The consensus view of the general election is likely Republican, although that may change if Kemp wins the nomination; as Cagle is seen as the stronger general election candidate.
Turning to the House of Representatives, Democrats will choose a nominee in runoff elections in two Atlanta-area districts. Both GOP-held districts are the only two potentially competitive general election districts in the state, although the 7th is more of a reach for Democrats.
In the 6th district runoff, gun control advocate Lucy McBath squares off against businessman Kevin Abel. The winner will meet incumbent Republican Karen Handel in November. Handel will be seeking her first full term; she won a high-profile special election over Jon Ossoff in 2017.
Meanwhile, in the 7th district runoff, it is a college professor, Carolyn Bourdeaux up against businessman David Kim for the nomination. The winner will meet Republican Rep. Rob Woodall in November. This district is seen as a tougher 'get' for Democrats - Woodall is a four-term incumbent who won re-election by 21% in 2016. Trump won here by 7%, while his margin in the adjacent 6th district was under 2% over Hillary Clinton.