Summary of Polling Resources on 270toWin

August 28, 2020

President

  • Most Recent Polls:  A listing of the latest polls in reverse chronological order.  You can also choose to see the most recent poll in each state where there has been at least one poll. Choose a location to see all polls and a calculated average.
  • Polling Averages by State: The 270toWin polling average for each state. Default sort is most recent poll, with options to sort by state, competitiveness (closest states first) and highest to lowest Biden or Trump %. Select the state name for its voting history. Select the 'All Polls' text to see all polls. There's an option to display polls where 3rd party candidates have been specifically named. Note that this 3rd party polling has been very limited.
  • Electoral Map Based on Polling: This interactive map categorizes each state based on the spread between Trump and Biden. Use the timeline above the map to see how the map has changed each day since late May. The 2016 actual spread between Trump and Clinton is used where there are no polls.1 1Many states are polled infrequently, so this map can sometimes show unlikely outcomes. For example, the only Arkansas poll, as of the date of this article, showed a two-point Trump lead. Therefore, the state shows as toss-up on the map, despite it being one of the most GOP-leaning in the country.  
  • Direct Links: Use the map below to link directly to the presidential polls in each state. Where district-level polling is available in Maine or Nebraska, it will be displayed. These pages also have the 'When did it last happen' feature.  Curious when the last time a Democrat won Florida while a Republican won the presidency? This will tell you (1924).  States in gray have not been polled, but you can still link to them for the historical feature.

Senate

  • Most Recent Polls:  A listing of the latest polls in reverse chronological order.  Choose a state to see all polls and a calculated average.
  • Senate Forecast Based on Polling This interactive map categorizes each state based on the polling average spread between the Democratic and Republican nominee. Many non-competitive races have not been polled; the 'safe' rating is used for those.2 2Senate polling is not frequent in most places. As with the presidential polling map, this can sometimes lead to ratings that may not reflect the current state of the race. 
  • Direct Links: Select a green-colored state in the map below to view Senate polls. States in the darker gray have not been polled; states in lighter gray have no Senate election this year.

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Headlines

Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight

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Polling Map with No Toss-ups

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