September 22, 2020
FiveThirtyEight recently added a Senate forecast to its website. As of this writing, their model gives Democrats a 62% probability of winning control. The most likely outcomes are a 50-50 split, followed by a 51-49 Democratic margin. In a 50-50 split, the outcome of the presidential election will determine Senate control. The 62% figure is therefore somewhat influenced by the site's presidential forecast.
We've created an interactive map based on this model. It will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities associated with each race. Click or tap the image below for full details and to use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.
Highly competitive contests for president and Senate have placed the Peach State front and center for this upcoming election.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.