September 16, 2020
Our new polling map categorizes states as red or blue based on who is leading in the polling average. There are no toss-ups here unless the state is exactly tied. This map will update three times a day; the image below will reflect the latest update. Click or tap for an interactive version.
You can compare this to the more granular polling map, which rates states based on the margin between the two nominees. This map updates on the same schedule as the no toss-up map, so that they remain in sync. Click or tap for an interactive version.
The seat will be vacant from the start of the next Congress until after a February 9 special election
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection