September 24, 2020
The November election in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district will be delayed after the death of Adam Charles Weeks, nominee of the Legal Marijuana Now Party. The seat will be vacant from the start of the 117th Congress in January until after a special election is held on February 9, 2021.
Per Minnesota law, if a major party nominee dies within 79 days of Election Day, a special election will be held on the second Tuesday of February. The Legal Marijuana Now Party qualifies as a major party in the state.
Statement from Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon
District 2 covers the southern part of the Twin Cities metro area. Democratic Rep. Angie Craig flipped the seat in 2018, defeating incumbent Republican Jason Lewis. The GOP nominee this year is Tyler Kistner, a former U.S. Marine Corps officer. Craig is favored to win a second term, although there is some disagreement among analysts about how strong her position is. Cook Political has the seat as Leans D; Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D; Inside Elections Safe D.
Complicating an Electoral College Tie
This temporary vacancy may prove relevant should the presidential election need to be decided in the House of Representatives (e.g., in a 269-269 tie). In that case, each state's U.S. House delegation gets one vote. The partisan split is currently 5-3 in favor of Democrats. There are three safe Democratic districts and two safe GOP districts. District 1 leans Republican. If GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn wins there, the split will be 3-3 with the majority decided by the result in District 7. This is a true toss-up: Democrat Collin Peterson is seeking a 16th term in a district that has grown progressively more GOP-leaning over the years. It voted for Donald Trump by 31% over Hillary Clinton in 2016, far and away his largest margin in any district represented by a Democrat in the House.
Highly competitive contests for president and Senate have placed the Peach State front and center for this upcoming election.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.