Election News

Highlights from the March 15 primaries:

For our review of today's events (both parties), including a recap of polling and a little more on delegate allocations, visit our March 15 primary polling update.

For anyone interested, we've created a spreadsheet that lets you allocate delegates in today's five Republican primaries, four of which are among the 10 states with the most delegates. Use it to make your own projections and see the proportion of remaining delegates each candidate will need after today, based on that forecast. 

The current values include Donald Trump's 9 delegates from today's caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands. Not all sources agree on delegate counts, so if yours are different, just change the 'Current' field.

Tuesday is shaping up as a key day in the 2016 presidential race. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes in each party, will be voting. On the Republican side, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. 

Where We Stand

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are closely matched in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, a new poll series from Public Policy Polling finds. These three states, along with Florida and North Carolina, hold their Democratic primaries on Tuesday. Clinton should easily win the latter two states.

The three competitive states are all open primary states. The poll found that Sanders is benefiting from the support of independents and Republicans planning to vote with the Democratic ballot. Sanders leads by 30-40 points in those groups, while Clinton leads by about 20 among Democrats. Overall, the poll found Clinton with a 5 point lead in Ohio and a 3 point lead in Illinois, with Sanders up by 1 in Missouri.

A series of polls from NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist provided mostly positive news for for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton heading into Tuesday's primaries in Florida, Ohio & Illinois. There was also some good news for Ohio governor John Kasich as he holds a small lead in that state's crucial winner take all vote. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is polling just behind Clinton. 

The good news is we finally have a current Missouri poll. The bad news is that the sample size is quite small and so caution should be used in relying too heavily on the results.

Republican: The poll found Donald Trump at 36% with Ted Cruz seven points back at 29%. Marco Rubio and John Kasich are non-factors, at below 10%. With a margin of error of 7%, it would be prudent to say that either Trump or Cruz could win. This is consistent with what we noted earlier in our discussion of the March 15 Republican primaries. That narrative also included information on how Missouri allocates its 52 delegates.

Tuesday, March 15 is shaping up as a pivotal day in the Republican nomination fight. Five states, including four of the top ten delegate prizes, will be voting. Additionally, the date marks the first date when states have the option for winner take all allocation of delegates. In all, these states will put 358 delegates into play.

As of now, Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 458 delegates, about 100 ahead of Ted Cruz.  Trump has about 37% of the 1,237 needed to nominate.

Donald Trump has earned 458 delegates in the contests held thus far, about 37% of the 1,237 required to get the nomination. The map below shows the delegates he's earned in each contest thus far, with the states colored to reflect his position in the popular vote.

This is a prototype. If we can work a few things out, we'll have similar maps for the other Republicans and the two Democratic candidates.

Defying polls that had him down 20 points, Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton by 2 points in Michigan, a huge boost to his campaign. The estimated 65 delegates Sanders amassed was his 2nd largest single event total thus far. Hillary Clinton easily won Mississippi, continuing her dominance in Southern primaries.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won events in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi, with Ted Cruz winning Idaho. Marco Rubio finished no better than 3rd, earning no delegates for the evening.

Preliminary updated delegate counts follow. For more details, visit our Republican and Democratic nomination pages.

One week out from the delegate-rich Florida primary, a new Florida Decides poll (taken by SurveyUSA) shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with rather large leads. The poll also showed a very close general election between Hillary Clinton and any of three surveyed opponents.

Republican: Trump received 42% support in the poll, about double that of Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz was third with 17%. Rubio's 22% in this must-win state was his weakest poll showing since late January. Florida is a winner take all state; in fact it is the largest winner take all Republican primary with 99 delegates.