April 6, 2017
A Gravis Marketing survey of Montana likely voters gives Republican Greg Gianforte a 12 point lead over Democrat Rob Quist in the race for the state's at-large congressional seat. The special election will be held May 25th. The seat became vacant when Republican Ryan Zinke resigned after being confirmed as Secretary of the Interior.
Gianforte, a technology entrepreneur, saw 50% support in the poll, with Quist, a musician, at 38%. The seat has been in Republican hands since 1997. Zinke won re-election by 15 points in November, while Donald Trump won the state by 21 points. The race is rated as likely Republican by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, while Inside Elections has it as safe Republican.
He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.