270toWin Redesign

Shift in White Working Class Voters, Not Turnout, Helped Lead Trump to Victory

March 29, 2017

The New York Times Upshot reports that nearly one in four white, working class voters who supported President Obama's reelection in 2012 abandoned the Democratic party in the 2016 presidential election, selecting either Donald Trump or a third-party candidate. It is this shift, not a major change in expected turnout, that propelled Mr. Trump to victory in the 2016 presidential election.

The Upshot reached this conclusion by reviewing actual voter files, comparing those to The Upshot's pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns in these three states are representative of broader trends throughout the nation, according to the analysis.

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