2024 Presidential Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.

2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map

This map will track the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

February 6: No changes

For those interested, we have a separate map that only considers polling. In using that map, keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.

2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

The map will update three times daily. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.

Crystal Ball 2024 Electoral College Ratings

The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

January 4: No changes. Read the analysis >>

Cook Political Report 2024 Electoral College Ratings

The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

December 19: Michigan and Nevada move from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Read the analysis ($)

Inside Elections 2024 Presidential Ratings

The current ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

September 1: No changes

 

 

Elections Daily 2024 President Ratings

The current Elections Daily ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.

January 29: Initial ratings. Read the analysis >

 

Split Ticket 2024 President Ratings

The current Split Ticket ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.

Read the analysis behind these ratings.

February 13: No changes

U.S. News 2024 Presidential Ratings

The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024.

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

January 2: Michigan moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Read the analysis >