2024 Presidential Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.
2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map
This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters.
Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
September 16: Colorado moves from Likely to Safe Democratic.
To compare this map to a map based just on polling, go here >
2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. In most cases where polling is not yet available or not recent, the margin associated with Biden-Trump polls, prior to the president's withdrawal is used. If that polling is also insufficient, recent history is considered.
The map automatically updates three times daily.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
The map is interactive. Use it to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.
Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.
2024 Map Based on Polls (No Toss-ups)
Updated three times daily, this map will track the electoral vote count based on polling, with no toss-ups (unless exactly tied).
The candidate that leads in the polls is shown as the winner of the state. The 2020 party winner is used where there are no polls.
See the regular Harris-Trump Polling Map for more granular ratings based on the polling margin between the two nominees.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Crystal Ball 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
September 15: No changes.
Most recent rating change was August 20, where North Carolina moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Read the analysis >
Cook Political Report 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
August 27: Minnesota and New Hampshire move from Lean to Likely Democratic; North Carolina Lean Republican to Toss-up. Read the analysis ($)
Inside Elections 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
August 29: North Carolina moves from Tilts Republican to Toss-up.
538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Fox News 2024 Presidential Power Rankings
The 2024 Presidential Power Rankings from Fox News. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
September 12: Georgia and North Carolina move from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Ohio Safe to Likely Republican.
Split Ticket 2024 President Ratings
The current Split Ticket ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
Read the analysis behind these ratings.
May 18: Alaska, Maine-2, Nebraska-1, and Ohio move from Likely to Safe Republican; Georgia and North Carolina Toss-up to Leans Republican; Michigan and Nevada Leans Democratic to Toss-up.
Elections Daily 2024 President Ratings
The current Elections Daily ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
August 14: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada move from Leans Republican to Toss-up; Minnesota Leans to Likely Democratic. Read the analysis >
cnalysis 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current 2024 presidential forecast from cnalysis. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
September 17: Alaska moves from Safe to Likely Republican; North Carolina Tilts Republican to Toss-up; Virginia Likely to Safe Democratic.
U.S. News 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is the chief correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
September 10: Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia move from Leans to Likely Democratic; North Carolina Leans Republican to Toss-up. Read the analysis >
Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
CNN 2024 Electoral College Map
The current 2024 electoral college outlook from CNN: "Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has dramatically reshaped the 2024 electoral map since earlier this year, when the contest looked to be between an unpopular and elderly incumbent president and the former president."
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
August 19: Forecast added to 270toWin.
Note that CNN does not use a 'Likely' designation in its ratings.
RacetotheWH 2024 Presidential Forecast
The 2024 Presidential Election forecast from RacetotheWH. This data driven model was created by Logan Phillips, who founded the website in 2020.
The Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Very Light (65%+) Light (75%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
