Updating the 270toWin Website After Biden's Withdrawal
By 270toWin Staff
July 22, 2024, 8:55 AM ET
From the New York Times, "President Biden on Sunday abruptly abandoned his campaign for a second term under intense pressure from fellow Democrats and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris to lead their party in a dramatic last-minute bid to stop former President Donald J. Trump from returning to the White House."
The article goes on to say "The president’s decision upended the race and set the stage for a raucous and unpredictable campaign unlike any in modern times, leaving Ms. Harris just 107 days to consolidate support from Democrats, establish herself as a credible national leader and prosecute the case against Mr. Trump."
As a result of this late change to the Democratic ticket, look for the following changes to 270toWin in the days ahead:
Polling Averages: This page will be updated in the next couple days to reflect Harris-Trump polling averages. The final Biden-Trump averages will remain available. Keep in mind that Harris-Trump polling has been limited, and may shift significantly as the voting intention question moves from a secondary hypothetical to center stage.
State Polling Detail: Most existing Harris-Trump polls are available toward the bottom of the individual state pages. Click an 'All Polls' link from the Polling Averages page, and scroll toward the bottom. Alternately, you can visit the Most Recent Polls page.
Polling Map: The Biden-Trump polling map will be replaced with a similar one for Harris-Trump. The Harris-Trump map will start out as a bit of a hybrid, reflecting final Biden-Trump polling where Harris-Trump isn't available.
Simulator: The simulator continues to operate, using the underlying model's final Biden-Trump update on July 21. The model is anticipated to be relaunched by August 1.
Battleground 270: This page reflects 25,000 simulations run daily. It is updated through July 21, and will pick up again when the new model is available.
