Forecasts Used to Create the 2024 Consensus Maps

To create a consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one.

Only states rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.

Forecasts within each section are listed in alphabetical order. All are weighted equally. 

President

Click the link above for the 2024 Presidential Election Consensus Map. To see individual forecasts, including the below and others, visit the Presidential election forecasts page.

  • Cook Political Report
  • Elections Daily
  • Inside Elections
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball
  • Split Ticket
  • US News

Senate

Click the link above for the 2024 Senate Consensus Map. To see individual forecasts, including the below and others, visit the Senate election forecasts page.

  • Cook Political Report
  • Elections Daily
  • Inside Elections
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball
  • Split Ticket
  • US News

House

Click the link above for the 2024 House Consensus Map. To see individual forecasts, including the below and others, visit the House election forecasts page.

Note that several states, including Alabama, Louisiana, New York, North Carolina, and Ohio may have additional redistricting and new maps for 2024. As the outcome is largely unknown, forecasters have taken different approaches. Some are not making projections for any districts in one or more of these states, while others have rerated safe districts as toss-up where boundary changes are more likely. As of now, for the most part, we are ignoring these, with the consensus map largely going with a status quo for these states.

  • The Cook Political Report
  • Elections Daily
  • Inside Elections
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball
  • Split Ticket

Governor

Click the link above for the 2023-24 Governor Consensus Map. To see individual forecasts, including the below and others, visit the gubernatorial election forecasts page.

  • Cook Political Report
  • Inside Elections
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball
  • Split Ticket
  • US News

To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one.

Only states rated safe by at least six of the forecasts are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.