2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Current as of Map Timestamp

This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used.

The map automatically updates three times daily.

States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is up to 8%, Likely up to 12%. Safe is >12%.

The map is interactive. Use it to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.

October 1: Ranges (see above) for each category narrowed. Polling should be more predictive as the election draws near. Prior ranges were <5% for Toss-up, <10% Leaning, <15% Likely. 

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2024 election as a Trump vs. Harris forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2024 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year

June 29, 2025

He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation

Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026

June 28, 2025

A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year

Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary

June 24, 2025

Several other city offices are on the ballot

Live Results: Buffalo Mayoral Primary and Legislative Special Elections

June 24, 2025

Buffalo's acting mayor seeks renomination for a full term; a FL special features the ultimate sibling rivalry

Overview and Live Results: 2025 Virginia Primary

June 17, 2025

Statewide offices and seats in the House of Delegates are on the ballot this year