Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Polymarket website.
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Headlines
Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year
Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary
Several other city offices are on the ballot
Live Results: Buffalo Mayoral Primary and Legislative Special Elections
Buffalo's acting mayor seeks renomination for a full term; a FL special features the ultimate sibling rivalry
Overview and Live Results: 2025 Virginia Primary
Statewide offices and seats in the House of Delegates are on the ballot this year
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