Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.

Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

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Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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Coming Events Which Could Shake Up the Campaign

A.B. Stoddard: “From the first debate to the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s...

Bonus Quote of the Day

“If I took this shirt off, you would see a beautiful, beautiful person. But you would...

Melania Trump Stays Quiet

“After Melania Trump missed key events in her husband’s presidential bid earlier...

Republicans Begin to Worry About Election

Politico: “Outside of the money race, a series of other developments in recent days...

I Hope the Debate Surprises Me

GOP strategist Whit Ayres previewed this week’s presidential debate this way:...


Update: Virginia Congressional District 5 Republican Primary

June 21, 2024

Having alienated both Donald Trump and supporters of Kevin McCarthy, Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good is at risk of losing his seat

Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs

June 18, 2024

Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year

Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries

June 10, 2024

There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio

Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic Caucuses

June 7, 2024

The final nominating contests for 2024 take place in two U.S. territories

Live Results: Primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

June 4, 2024

Several down-ballot races of note, along with the final state-run presidential primaries of this cycle.