Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.

Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

Current

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

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Conspiracy Theorist Joins Trump for 9/11 Ceremony

“Laura Loomer, a right-wing activist who posted last year that 9/11 was an...

Trump Allies Don’t Want Him to Debate Harris Again

Rolling Stone: “By early Wednesday morning, multiple Trump aides were telling...

How Swing Voters Reacted to the Debate

Sara Longwell: “I conduct focus groups with voters every week, and I’ve heard...

A Catastrophic Debate for Trump

Karl Rove: “Will this debate have an effect? Yes, though perhaps not as much...

Taylor Swift Registers New Voters

NPR reports that as of 11 a.m. ET today there have been 306,422 visitors to Vote.gov...

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

September 10, 2024

The final three statewide primaries before the November 5 general election take place Tuesday

Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

September 3, 2024

Outside two GOP congressional primaries, there's not all that much to see in this Democratic stronghold

Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election

August 27, 2024

Top two runoffs are required in 10 state legislative districts where no candidate received a majority in the June 18 primary

538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

August 23, 2024

The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible

Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries

August 20, 2024

Just a handful of 2024 primaries will remain after Tuesday's contests