538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. 

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2024 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2024 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
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Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: 2025 Virginia Primary

June 17, 2025

Statewide offices and seats in the House of Delegates are on the ballot this year

Overview and Live Results: New Jersey Primary

June 10, 2025

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is termed-out; there are contested primaries in both parties.

Live Results: June 10 Legislative Special Elections

June 10, 2025

Seven elections will fill vacancies across three states

Live Results: San Antonio and Garland Texas Mayoral Runoffs

June 7, 2025

San Antonio hasn't elected a GOP mayor in 30 years, but this race looks competitive

Election Recap June 3, 2025: Dems Hold State House Seat in South Carolina

June 4, 2025

On a related note, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly