538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. 

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2024 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2024 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
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DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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Headlines

Live Results: San Antonio and Garland Texas Mayoral Runoffs

June 7, 2025

San Antonio hasn't elected a GOP mayor in 30 years, but this race looks competitive

Election Recap June 3, 2025: Dems Hold State House Seat in South Carolina

June 4, 2025

On a related note, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly

Live Results: South Carolina State House District 50 Special Election

June 3, 2025

This will fill the one vacancy in the Republican-dominated chamber

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville Announces Gubernatorial Campaign

May 27, 2025

He'll be the favorite to succeed termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey in this deep red state

Election Recap May 20, 2025: Pittsburgh Mayor Ousted in Primary

May 21, 2025

Mayor Ed Gainey was defeated by a more centrist Democrat.