538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year
He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year
Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary
Several other city offices are on the ballot
Live Results: Buffalo Mayoral Primary and Legislative Special Elections
Buffalo's acting mayor seeks renomination for a full term; a FL special features the ultimate sibling rivalry
Overview and Live Results: 2025 Virginia Primary
Statewide offices and seats in the House of Delegates are on the ballot this year
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