538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. 

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

House Election Update: One District Remains Uncalled

November 28, 2024

Republicans will hold one of the narrowest majorities in history as the new Congress gets underway in January

Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled

November 16, 2024

The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14

November 14, 2024

Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin

Republicans Retain House Majority

November 11, 2024

The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10

November 10, 2024

One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined