JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast.  This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.

Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2024 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2024 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation

July 1, 2025

Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor

Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year

June 29, 2025

He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation

Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon Not Seeking Reelection in 2026

June 28, 2025

A formal announcement will come Monday; Bacon was seen as among the more endangered Republicans next year

Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary

June 24, 2025

Several other city offices are on the ballot

Live Results: Buffalo Mayoral Primary and Legislative Special Elections

June 24, 2025

Buffalo's acting mayor seeks renomination for a full term; a FL special features the ultimate sibling rivalry