CERTIFICATION
LIVE ELECTION RESULTS
Polling Map for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
By 270toWin Staff
July 25, 2024, 9:07 AM ET
We've created a Harris vs. Trump polling map. This will replace the Biden vs. Trump polling map that is no longer being updated.
The polling map does not consider forecasts of how the election will go in November. It is best thought of as an 'if the election was today' view of things.
State-level polling for the nascent general election match-up is extremely limited to this point, but should become more plentiful in the weeks ahead.
Given the lack of polling, each state on the map is rated based on the following methodology:
- The calculated Harris vs. Trump polling average (if multiple qualifying polls) or most recent poll (if only one)
- If nothing available in #1, we use the Biden vs. Trump average (or most recent poll if only one) as of July 21, the date of the president's withdrawal
- If nothing available in #2, we use the 2020 margin between Trump and Biden
Headlines
House Election Update: One District Remains Uncalled
Republicans will hold one of the narrowest majorities in history as the new Congress gets underway in January
Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled
The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin
Republicans Retain House Majority
The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10
One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined