Election News

Pennsylvania: Clinton leads by one, 42-41, in the poll, indicating the race is essentially tied in the most delegate-rich competitive state in the rust belt. Almost all polling in this state has shown a competitive race, notable in a state that has voted Democratic since 1992. The Consensus Map shows the state as leaning Clinton. This distinguishes it from Ohio and Florida, seen as toss-ups, although that's probably somewhat based on recent history, as those other two states voted Republican as recently as 2004.

Florida: Quinnipiac found an eight point lead for Clinton here, up from just one five weeks ago. While Trump can win without Florida, it would likely require a near-sweep of rust belt states that haven't voted Republican in a generation. In a separate article from earlier this week, we discussed paths to victory for Clinton and Trump. The Consensus Map shows Florida as a toss-up.

If that 'blue wall' holds and Clinton wins Florida, the race is over. Even without Florida, there are many paths to victory via other states Obama won twice, including Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Clinton's super PAC is planning to spend $145 million in these six states, Florida and North Carolina, which Obama won once.

Donald Trump's Path to Victory: "Trump's team is aiming to capture America's Rust Belt -- specifically Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin -- where polls generally show him performing better than Mitt Romney did at this point in 2012. If he can capture Florida and keep North Carolina — the 2012 red state of the lightest hue — a strong showing that includes capture of the Rust Belt could, Trump’s team believes, put him over the top." 

In the map below, we've started with the actual 2012 result, moving the four rust belt states to Trump. We kept Florida blue to highlight that Trump can reach exactly 270 by winning those four states, keeping everything else the same from 2012.  

If Trump was able to flip Florida in the above scenario, he would not need to win all four of the rust belt states. He need only win Pennsylvania and either Ohio or Michigan. He could also get there by losing Pennsylvania and winning the other three states.

While Trump's team is pursuing the rust belt strategy, it is worth noting that the candidate himself believes he can put 'blue wall' states such as California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland into play. To that end, a Trump super PAC is spending on national cable ads as opposed to focusing on the traditional battleground states.

Rep. Ron DeSantis (FL-06), another Senate candidate, may choose to run for another term as well.

The filing deadline in Florida is June 24th, with the primary elections taking place on August 30th.

Assuming Rubio wins the primary, he would likely face either Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) or Rep. Alan Grayson (FL-09). The race is currently seen as a toss-up by Sabato's Crystal Ball, a rating that is not expected to change in the near-term, even with a Rubio candidacy.

Using Florida as an example, the top part of the page lists the available Clinton vs. Trump general election polls.

Where sufficient polling is available, an average is displayed. It is also easy to compare the two most recent surveys by the same pollster.

The 2nd part of the page introduces a new feature that displays the various combinations for state and election winner and when it last happened. For example, the last time a Republican won Florida while a Democrat won the election was in 1992. 

You can view each map on the poll page by selecting the year or click/tap the map for more details about the specific presidential election.

The endorsement comes on the heels of Obama's meeting with Bernie Sanders at the White House earlier today. 

Clinton, with an estimated 2,755 delegates, is now almost 400 delegates clear of the 2,383 required to win the nomination. She's less than 200 short of achieving that number based on pledged delegates alone. 

As of late last night, before Clinton was known to have won California, Sanders said he would remain in the race.

Elsewhere Tuesday, Clinton easily won New Jersey, the other large delegate prize of night. She has also been declared the winner in New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders won in Montana and North Dakota.

Turning to delegates, Clinton has thus far picked up 114 on the night to Sanders 94. Clinton is now 100 delegates from winning a majority of pledged delegates (2,026), a number she'll easily surpass once California's 475 delegates are allocated. She will remain about 200 pledged delegates short of an overall majority (2,383); she is the presumptive nominee as superdelegates committing to her have made up the difference.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won all five primaries, adding 297 delegates to his total.

She has reached 2,383 delegates, the exact number needed to win, as an additional block of superdelegates has apparently committed to vote for her at the Democratic convention in July. 

Clinton was expected to easily cross the threshold tomorrow, when six states hold contests. However, the AP apparently surveyed uncommitted superdelegates and found enough to get her to 2,383. We noted this as a possibility yesterday, as the AP did something similar on the Republican side, making Donald Trump the presumptive nominee on May 26th; earlier than the expected date of June 7th. 

@Nate_Cohn If PR gets her close, thinking AP might survey uncommitted superdelegates before Tues. to see if that gets her to 2,383

— 270toWin (@270toWin) June 5, 2016

For their part, the Bernie Sanders campaign disagrees with the AP's assessment, putting out this statement:

Nearly 700 pledged delegates are available in the six contests Tuesday, which includes five primaries and the North Dakota caucus. The first polls close in New Jersey at 8PM ET. Clinton leads the polls by 21 points over Bernie Sanders there, and she will likely cross the delegate threshold before voting ends in any of the other states. 

The big prize is California, with 475 pledged delegates. The polls close there at 11PM ET. Sanders has drawn nearly even in recent polling. A Sanders win there would make for an odd evening for Democrats, bookended on one end by Clinton being declared the presumptive nominee, only to have her lose the largest Democratic state a few hours later. 

Limited polling in New Mexico points to a Clinton victory. No polling is available in the other states. However, Sanders has won every other state in that part of the country so he should do well.

The table below allocates delegates assuming the polling averages are exactly right. It also assumes the statewide vote is the same in each congressional district. That won't be the case, but with proportional allocation and only two candidates, it is a pretty good proxy.

Even assuming Sanders takes most of the Dakotas and Montana delegates, Clinton will likely end up in the neighborhood of 2,700 delegates, 300+ clear of the needed number and a lead of well over 800 on Sanders. Clinton will still be about 200 short based on pledged delegates, but with a 300-325 delegate margin expected in that category, there's little reason to believe superdelegates will switch en masse barring a major 'black swan' event between now and the Democratic convention in late July.

The one remaining Democratic primary is June 14 in District of Columbia.

For now, we are showing the totals excluding that final delegate:

Today is the Puerto Rico primary, with 60 pledged delegates available. Polls are open from 8AM to 3PM Eastern Time.