Election News

The left part of the table shows the 16 potentially competitive races in 2016; these are the seats that will determine control of the Senate. For a race to be in this list, at least one of three 'pundits' needed to see the race as at least somewhat competitive. The other 18 seats were seen as safe for the incumbent party by all three; these are listed to the bottom right.

In the top right, we've summarized what it all means. The current Senate is controlled by Republicans, with 54 seats; Democrats have 46 (including Maine independent Angus King). More than 70% (24 of 34) of the seats to be contested this year are currently held by Republicans, with the composition of safe seats much closer to 50-50. This puts the Democratic floor at 43 seats, Republicans at 41 or, put another way, 3 Democratic seats are at risk, while 13 Republican ones are in play. 

Several of the seats fall into the 'likely' category; those may or may not end up as competitive. If we adjust for that, we end up with a 'Likely' floor of 46 for Republicans, 44 for Democrats, with 10 seats seen as highly competitive.

The three pro ratings we used are those of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. 

The president nominates Supreme Court justices, who must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

What Now?

The Court is ideologically divided 4-4 with the vacancy created by Scalia's passing. We obviously have a presidential election this year, and 34 U.S. Senate seats are up for election. The presidential race is likely to be competitive, and it is also close to 50/50 as to who will control the Senate.

This creates an interesting 'game theory' situation. Does President Obama nominate someone now, knowing that if he name someone with his ideological view, that person would have a very difficult time getting confirmed in a Republican-controlled Senate? Or does he nominate a moderate, hoping that person can get approved?  Both parties will be reading the tea leaves as the year goes on.

For example, Republicans are already saying (McConnell, Cruz) that the appointment should wait until a new president is in office. However, if it becomes obvious that Democrats will win the White House and take control of the Senate, they might become more accommodating to an Obama nominee as the year goes on.

Ironically, Senator Cruz's statement could work against him, to the benefit of establishment Republicans, if voters conclude that Cruz or other outsiders like Donald Trump can't win in 2016.

The Nevada Democratic caucuses are on February 20.

The ratings changes follow. Use our 2016 House Interactive Map for a visual view and to create your own forecast. Note that we have recently enlarged the map and are working on some other enhancements to make it more user-friendly.

Fiorina's exit, along with the likely departure of New Jersey governor Chris Christie, would leave just 7 of the original 17 Republicans in the race. Follow the race on our Republican Nomination page, which includes delegate and poll information, as well as links to information about each state's contest.

Both parties allocate delegates in a proportional manner. After two events, Donald Trump leads with 17 delegates; Ted Cruz has 10. 1,237 are needed to win the Republican nomination. Bernie Sanders earned 13 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 9 in New Hampshire. Clinton is well ahead in delegates, owing to her receiving the support of a large number of party superdelegates. 

Up next are the Nevada Democratic caucus and South Carolina Republican primary, both on Saturday, February 20.

All of today's surveys were conducted prior to last night's debate, where Rubio's effort was widely panned. Fox News analyst Brit Hume said that the Florida Senator's performance "reminded me of nothing so much as Dan Quayle in the 1988 (vice) presidential debate..."

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders holds a 15 point lead, on average, over Hillary Clinton after today's new set of polls.

Correction: Rubio had 19.4% in the Suffolk poll, which rounds to 19%. The text "Trump's lead ranging from 9 to 21 points" in the above paragraph has been updated to reflect this change.

Democrat: Bernie Sanders leads in all five polls, with margins ranging from 9 to 20 points. Interestingly, the Suffolk survey showed the smallest spread in both parties.

 American Research Group and UMass Lowell have been conducting daily tracking polls, so expect to see continued polling releases over the weekend. 

The Tuesday snowstorm threat we discussed earlier seems to have waned with this afternoon's forecasts. The storm is still expected to form, but looks to track further offshore than earlier projections, limiting snow accumulations. Things could change again, of course.