Election News

Politico reports that Chris Suprun, one of Texas' 38 Republican electors, has indicated that if Donald Trump wins his state, as seems likely, he may cast his electoral college vote elsewhere. Earlier in August, Baoky Vu, then a Georgia elector, indicated the same, while going even further by saying he wouldn't vote for Trump in November. Shortly after those comments, Vu resigned.

About half the states bind electors legally, the remainder do not. Texas and Georgia are two of the states that do not require electors to vote in line with the popular vote results. Electors not voting as pledged are known as 'faithless electors'. These are rare, particularly in modern times, as the electoral slates are usually comprised of those very loyal to the party they represent. Wikipedia has a list of faithless electors. 

For third party candidates, ballot access is crucial if polling support is to translate into votes on Election Day. As of now, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is on the ballot in 43 states + DC, with efforts underway to get access in the remaining seven states. Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on the ballot in 35 states + DC. 

Johnson's ballot access represents 487 of 538 electoral votes, while Stein is at 425. Although clearly less desirable, it is worth noting that some states allow limited access via write-in for names not printed on the ballot.

The Clinton campaign is opening a field office in Salt Lake City, the USA Today reports. Although no Democrat has won the state since 1964 and Mitt Romney won by almost 50 points in 2012, the campaign sees an opportunity in the high unfavorable ratings for Donald Trump.

A new poll out today, however, shows it will be a steep climb. Public Policy finds Trump ahead by 20 points in a head-head match-up vs. Clinton. When third parties are included, Trump's lead drops to 15 points, with Gary Johnson receiving 12%. Independent Evan McMullin, who entered the race on August 10th, is at 9%. (McMullin, a member of the Mormon church, would be expected to see his best numbers in the state, where he is already on the ballot.)

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 19 point lead over Donald Trump in Virginia, a new poll from Roanoke College finds. This is the fourth August poll finding the Democratic nominee with a double digit lead. When 3rd party nominees are included, the lead is 16 points. The last time Roanoke surveyed the Commonwealth, back in May, the race was tied.

The Associated Press is out with an analysis of the electoral map this weekend, reporting that "Hillary Clinton heads into the fall out front in enough states to give her at least a tie in the Electoral College, meaning a victory in any of the several states now a toss-up would be enough to push her over the top and into the White House.

Here's a look at the AP ratings on our electoral map. Click or tap the map to view an interactive version.

The August 15 update* to the Consensus Pundit Electoral Map gives Hillary Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Donald Trump; 68 electoral votes in four states are seen as true toss-ups. 

The main changes from the prior map were to move Virginia and New Hampshire from toss-up to leaning Clinton. This was enough to push Clinton across the 270 electoral vote threshold for the first time. Several red states also became more competitive, with Kansas and South Carolina moving from safe to likely Trump, Missouri from likely to leaning Trump.

Hillary Clinton leads by 14 in Colorado, 13 in Virginia, 9 in North Carolina and 5 in Florida, according to a new series of battleground polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist.

With today's result, Virginia moves to Lean Clinton in the electoral map based on polls, putting the Democratic nominee across 270 electoral votes for the first time. 

While other traditionally red states have shown signs of being competitive this November, the Lone Star State still looks safe for Donald Trump. The Republican nominee leads Hillary Clinton by 11 points in Texas, a new poll from Dixie Strategies finds. 

This is the first Texas poll since the conventions, with the 11 point lead slightly wider than the 7-8 point lead found in a couple of late June Texas polls.

The first 2016 survey of South Carolina shows a tight race in a state not won by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Public Policy finds Donald Trump leading by 2 points 41%-39%, with 5% supporting Gary Johnson.

Hillary Clinton continues to get good news in the polls. Today it is from Wisconsin. The mid-August release of the well-respected Marquette Law poll gives her a 15 point lead over Donald Trump, a gain of 11 points from mid-July. Including 3rd parties, the lead remains well into double digits.