Election News

Republicans, unhappy with that, want to change the rules.  The current composition of the state legislature, and a pending election season, have added impetus to the effort.

Interestingly, redistricting after the 2010 census made the 2nd district more Republican, making it less likely that the electoral vote would be won by a Democrat in the future. If there was to be an electoral split in 2016, it is perhaps more likely (although still unlikely) that it would come via a Republican winning Maine's mostly rural 2nd district.

For more on the implications of moving from winner take all, see our feature Gaming the Electoral College.

Once Grimm leaves office, the seat will be vacant until a special election is held.   By New York law, the governor (Andrew Cuomo (D)) will announce a date for a special election, which will be 70 to 80 days after the date he makes the announcement, but no later than next November's general election.  (This time period was extended from 30 to 40 days in 2011, to provide ample time for overseas military personnel to cast their ballots).

Grimm won a third term in Congress in November, defeating Democrat Domenic Recchia by 13%, a surprisingly large margin in this competitive district.  Absent the incumbent, the special election will likely be hard-fought by both parties.

• Senate: Republicans gained 9 seats, giving them 54 in the new Senate. To view the new Senate, see our 2015 Senate map.

• House: Republicans gained 13 seats, giving them 247 in the new House. The last time Republicans had this kind of majority was in the 80th Congress (1947-49), when they held 246 seats. Interestingly, that was the 'Do Nothing' Congress, so-named by Democratic president Harry S. Truman. Republicans lost 75 seats in the subsequent election.
  

• Governor: Republicans will control 31 governorships next year, up from 29 this year. Democrats lost 3 seats, with one of those going to an independent in Alaska.

The map is colored to reflect the party composition of Senators in each state. Hover over (or tap) a state to see its Senators. The table under the map divides the Senate by class  / next election date. For those Senators up in 2016, we list the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball. 

A party breakdown of those classes can be seen to the right of the map.  Interestingly, each class is currently heavily stacked toward one party or the other. There's no historical reason for this distribution. In fact, with no state's two Senators in the same class, it seems like an unlikely evolution.  Yet that is where we are, and 2016 will have 24 Republican seats up for grabs vs. just 10 currently held by Democrats.

The first image below shows the projected winner in each race; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer races in the polls (AK, CO, GA, IA) trended more Republican in recent days. Kansas was the closest race, with Greg Orman remaining slightly ahead in the end.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

The first image below shows the projected winner by state; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer states (AK, CO, GA, IA) have been trending Republican in recent days. Kansas continues to be pretty consistent at around 60% for Greg Orman.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

• Uncontested: 32 seats (16 Democrat, 16 Republican) are completely uncontested. This includes 7 of Georgia's 14 Districts and 6 of the 9 in Massachusetts. The incumbent is running in 30 of these races: Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11 opted to run for Senate, while Ralph Hall (R) TX-4 was defeated in his party's primary.

• No Major Party Opposition: 37 seats (20 Democrat, 17 Republican) pit one major party against one or more 3rd party or independent candidates. While acknowledging that the election hasn't yet occurred, none of these appear to be competitive races. (Two of these districts, LA-2 and LA-3 have multiple candidates from the major party as well as 3rd party/independent opposition, owing to the open primary that will take place on Election Day). 

• Both Candidates From Same Party: 8 seats (5 Democrat, 3 Republican). 7 of these are from California, 1 from Washington. These states hold 'top two' primaries, where the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. 

Data for this review was gathered from and is courtesy of The Green Papers and Wikipedia. If we've missed anything, please let us know.