Election News

The case is likely to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

North Carolina's current congressional districts can be seen on the map below, which is a partial preview of a state page from our soon to be launched updated House map. Each state will have its own map, and there will be a national map that can be zoomed and panned to view any desired region of the country. All the maps will be interactive and will work in conjunction with each other.

Included on the state pages will be information on the incumbent and a race rating for 2018. Additionally, they will show each district's margins from 2016, both from the race for Congress and the presidential election. The results in North Carolina highlight how effective the state legislature's gerrymander was --- none of the 13 districts was decided by less than 12%. 

The Washington Examiner reports that "Arpaio, a close ally of President Trump and former sheriff known for his provocative approach to combating illegal immigration, is running for Senate in Arizona." Meanwhile, Politico's Kevin Robillard tweets that Arizona Republican Rep. Martha McSally has "special announcements" set for Friday. It is likely that she will enter the race at that time.

McSally has events scheduled beginning in Tucson then moving on to Phoenix and Prescott. Her 2nd district covers the Southeastern corner of Arizona, including much of Tucson. It was reported in early November that McSally was planning to join the race, so her expected announcement will not be a surprise.

The new entrants set up a three-way battle for the Republican nomination. McSally, in her 2nd term in Congress, is the preferred candidate of the establishment. The conservative Ward has received support from President Trump and an endorsement from Steve Bannon, although she's distanced herself from Bannon in recent days. Arpaio is likely to appeal to many of the voters drawn to Ward. This could actually ease McSally's path to the nomination.

Whomever emerges as the nominee will likely face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the general election. That contest is seen as a toss-up at this time. 

McSally's district is also seen as a toss-up. While she won reelection by 14% last November, Hillary Clinton won the district by 5%. It is one of just 23 districts nationwide that elected a Republican to Congress and voted for Clinton over Trump.

While Royce won reelection by nearly 15% in 2016, the district is one of just 23 nationwide that elected a Republican to Congress and voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Clinton won here by 8.6%. With the incumbent retiring, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved this race to toss-up from Leans Republican.

Royce brings to 44 the number of House members retiring or seeking another office; that's over 10% of the body's 435 seats.

Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2017

DeSantis represents the 6th district, which runs from south of Jacksonville through Daytona Beach to north of Orlando. Both DeSantis and Donald Trump won here by 17 points in 2016, and the district is seen as safe Republican.

The gubernatorial race is one of 36 to be held in 2018. It is considered a toss-up at this point.

43 House members have announced they aren't running in 2018. One of them, Ohio's Pat Tiberi, will be leaving Congress on January 15th. Gov. John Kasich has set August 7th as the date for a special election, which will be preceded by a primary on May 8th.

Related: Full list of House Retirements

Separately, Ohio Republican Pat Tiberi, who announced this past October that he would leave Congress by the end of January, has set January 15th as his departure date. Gov. John Kasich, who represented the 12th district prior to Tiberi (both of them served nine terms) will set the date for a special election. Donald Trump won this district by about 11% in 2016 and it likely will remain in Republican hands.

Shuster represents Pennsylvania's 9th district, which covers a large part of the south-central part of the state. The seat is safely Republican. Donald Trump won the district by over 42 points in 2016, his largest margin anywhere in the state. 

Shuster becomes the third Pennsylvania U.S. House member - all Republicans - to pass on the 2018 race. Rep. Charlie Dent (PA-15) is also retiring, while Rep. Lou Barletta (PA-11) is running for U.S. Senate. 

This is the first House retirement announcement of 2018. There are now 41 members on the list of departures, including 27 Republicans and 14 Democrats. One of the Republicans, Ohio's Pat Tiberi, is expected to leave Congress this month.

Now in his 7th term, Hatch is the longest-serving Republican in the Senate. He joined in early 1977 after winning in 1976. Only Vermont's Patrick Leahy, who entered the Senate in 1975, has served longer. Leahy was elected to an 8th term in 2016.

Romney would be the prohibitive favorite to win should he choose to run.

Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in a special election on December 12th. He is the first Democrat to win a Senate election in Alabama since 1992, when Richard Shelby was reelected to a 2nd term. Shelby would become a Republican two years later. Now in his 6th term, Shelby remains the state's senior Senator. Jones will serve the remainder of the term. The seat is up again in 2020.

Smith was appointed by Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton to replace Franken. She is expected to face the voters in a special election this November. The winner there will complete the remainder of Franken's term. This seat is also up again in 2020.

The Democratic gain in Alabama will bring the Senate to 51-49 Republican. Democrats will need to pick up two seats to gain control in 2018.

Smith's appointment is temporary. Minnesota will hold a special election coinciding with the midterm elections next November. The winner will serve the final two years of Franken's term. That seat's next regularly scheduled election is in 2020.

Minnesota's other Senator, Amy Klobuchar, is also up for reelection in 2018. According to an analysis by Sabato's Crystal Ball, this will be the 55th time since 1913 that a state has had a 'double-barrel' Senate election. The analysis shows that in the vast majority of cases, the same party wins both elections. In fact, this has been the case 100% of the time since 1966. 

Use our Senate Interactive Map, now updated for Alabama and Minnesota, to create and share your own 2018 Senate election forecast.

At this point, Texas and Florida look to be the big winners, gaining 3 and 2 electoral votes, respectively. Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Oregon will gain one each. As the number of electoral votes is fixed, these 9 increased votes must come from somewhere else. The current projection is that Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are on track to lose one each. This projection is virtually unchanged from late 2016. The only difference is that Illinois, as opposed to Texas, would be allocated the final congressional district.

Of course, much can change between now and 2020. For example, hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico this summer - after the July 1 estimate date - leading to an outward migration of those residents to Florida. It is unknown how many of those will return to the island when life gets back to normal there.

We've created interactive maps of the last five presidential elections using the projected 2024 map. There's little change from 2016, where Donald Trump would win two more electoral votes with the 2024 map. However, looking back to 2000, George Bush would have won 19 more electoral votes, giving him a wider 290-248 victory over Al Gore. That said, Florida would still have made the difference. The Sunshine State is projected to have 31 electoral votes in 2024, vs. 25 in 2000.