Election News

Republican Trey Gowdy of South Carolina and Democrat Bob Brady of Pennsylvania announced Wednesday that they will retire at the end of the year. This brings to 49 the number of current members not seeking reelection. 34 of those are Republicans, while 15 are Democrats.

Gowdy, in his 4th term, chairs the House Oversight Committee, and is most well-known for chairing the Benghazi investigation. His 4th district includes much of Greenville and Spartanburg in the northwest corner of the state. Gowdy won reelection in 2016 by 36 points, while Donald Trump won here by 26 points over Hillary Clinton. The district is expected to remain in Republican hands.

Gallup has published Donald Trump's approval rating in each of the 50 states. This is based on over 170,000 interviews conducted during 2017.  Trump's national approval rating averaged 38% during 2017, with 56% disapproving. Breaking it down by state, the results ranged from 26% in Vermont to 61% in West Virginia. (Washington D.C. gave Trump an approval rating of 6%).

Gallup found that Trump had approval ratings above his 38% national average in 33 of the 50 states. This occurred because some of the states where he performs most poorly are very populous states like California. At a high level, this outcome sounds pretty similar to what we saw in the 2016 election, where Trump surpassed 270 electoral votes while losing the popular vote. 

New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee, announced Monday that he will not seek reelection. Politico notes that "[he] is the eighth Republican committee chairman to forgo reelection in the House ahead of a midterm cycle that’s building against the GOP. But Frelinghuysen, whose district grew increasingly competitive in 2016, only served one full year as appropriations chairman and was not term-limited in his position, unlike other retiring lawmakers."

While Frelinghuysen easily won a 12th term in 2016, Donald Trump only bested Hillary Clinton by 0.8% in the district, and the race was shaping up to be highly competitive this year even with the incumbent running. Three Democrats outraised Frelinghuysen in the 3Q of 2017.

Pennsylvania Rep. Patrick Meehan (PA-7) has announced his retirement from Congress at the end of this year. The four-term Republican has been under scrutiny in recent days after it became public that inappropriate behavior with an aide led to a settlement paid by Congress. Meehan was subsequently removed from his seat on the House Ethics Committee.

Meehan's path to reelection in November was further clouded this week as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ordered the state's congressional district lines to be redrawn for the 2018 midterms. The Court found that the lines established by the General Assembly back in 2011 violated the state's constitution. If the decision survives appeal, Meehan's suburban Philadelphia district will likely be significantly altered. That district is among the most gerrymandered in the entire country. 

The new 2018 House Interactive Map is live.

• There's a national map, as well as a map/URL for each individual state.  Here's Texas.
• The national and state maps are interactive; rotate colors and create your forecast directly on the map
• All the maps work together - changes on a state map will update the national map and vice-versa
• Your map changes will be saved (if cookies are enabled)
• Pan and zoom the national map
• Table below the maps includes select district info + 2016 margin of victory (House & Presidential)
  • National map at full size:  Competitive districts
  • National map, zoomed:  All districts then currently visible in the map window
  • State map:  List of the full congressional delegation

More features, including social sharing of individual forecasts, will be coming soon.

In a split decision, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the state's Congressional Redistricting Act of 2011 violates the state's Constitution, ordering the General Assembly to submit a revised plan to the governor by February 9th. Failing that, or if the governor doesn't approve the plan submitted, the Court will develop a plan for redistricting. The Court further directed that the new districts will be effective for the May 15th primary. The changes will not affect the March 13th special election in the 18th congressional district.

The decision is being appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to this AP article. Providing some background, the article states that "Republicans who controlled the Legislature and governor’s office following the 2010 census broke decades of geographical precedent when redrawing the map...they shifted whole counties and cities into different districts in an effort to protect a Republican advantage in the congressional delegation. They succeeded, securing 13 of 18 seats in a state where registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 5 to 4."

There are elections for governor in 36 of the 50 states this year. 26 of those offices are held by Republicans and nine by Democrats, with one independent in Alaska. Only half of the Republican incumbents are running; all the departing governors, except for Idaho's Butch Otter, are term-limited. On the Democratic side, five of the nine incumbents are running; two of the four departures are due to term limits.

Overall, as of January 16th*, Republicans hold 33 governorships and Democrats 16, with one independent. This year's gubernatorial elections will take on more national importance than usual as the governors elected this year will be in office^ when redistricting occurs after the 2020 Census. In most states, the legislature draws the district lines, while the governor has veto power.

Telling the national GOP to "grow a pair of ovaries", Rep. Martha McSally joined the U.S. Senate race in Arizona Friday. She will compete against former State Senator Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio for the Republican nomination. The winner will likely face McSally's Democratic House colleague Kyrsten Sinema in November. Incumbent Senator, Republican Jeff Flake is retiring.

California Republican Darrell Issa will not seek reelection, he announced Wednesday. Issa narrowly won reelection in 2016. His roughly 0.5% margin of victory over Democrat Doug Applegate was one of the five closest congressional races in 2016. Hillary Clinton won the district by 7.5%, one of only 23 districts nationwide (7 in California) that elected a Republican to the House while supporting Clinton over Trump in the presidential election.

Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the 2018 race for the 49th district from Toss up to Leans Democrat.

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights shows a very competitive 3-way race for the Republican nomination in the Arizona U.S. Senate race. Rep. Martha McSally leads with 31%, just ahead of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio at 29%. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward is in 3rd at 25%. In a mid-November poll by the same firm, Ward held an 8 point lead over McSally; Arpaio was not included in that survey. 

McSally is the establishment favorite, and her number is little changed from November. Arpaio's share came primarily from Ward; this makes sense in that they both will appeal to many of the same voters. It is also notable that Arpaio & Ward's combined share exceeds 50%, well ahead of McSally. This indicates that a three-way race all the way to the August 28th primary may make McSally's path to the nomination easier than if Arpaio or Ward drop out at some point and endorse the other.