February 2, 2016
Republican: Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses, with about 28% of the vote. In a close three-way race, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio were next at 24% and 23%, respectively. Cruz and Rubio outperformed the polling average by several points, while Trump underperformed slightly.
Delegates are allocated proportionately in Iowa so delegates were pretty evenly split among the top three finishers. Cruz received 8, with Trump and Rubio getting 7 each. A few delegates remain unallocated at this point.
Mike Huckabee received about 2% of the vote, and suspended his campaign.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both received about half the vote in an exceptionally tight race. Clinton's campaign has claimed victory, but the race has not been called by the Associated Press as of this writing. Regardless of who ultimately wins, the delegate account is proportional here as well so it doesn't make much practical difference, beyond bragging rights. The exact delegate numbers are a little sketchy, but it looks like Sanders will have 21, with Clinton having between 23 and 29, depending on whether so-called 'super delegates' are included. Click or tap the above graphic to see the full Democratic results.
Martin O'Malley received less than 1% and also withdrew from the race.
Up next: New Hampshire primary on February 9. Trump has a huge lead in Republican polling, with Sanders also well ahead in the Democratic polls.
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February 1, 2016
After a poor showing in Iowa, former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is expected to suspend his campaign.
This will leave a two-person Democratic race. As of this writing, Iowa is too close to call between Sanders and Clinton.
February 1, 2016
We've added delegate state maps to our Republican and Democratic nomination pages. These maps let you see how many delegates each state will send to the respective party's national convention. You can choose to view the map based on time, contest type or allocation method, and from there look at any slice of those three elements.
Each state can be clicked or tapped to get a little more detail on the state's contest as well as a polling average (if enough recent polls are available) and individual poll detail.
This Republican map, for example, is based on allocation methods, and shows how the 689 delegates up on Super Tuesday will be allocated.
Within the time dimension, there's also an option for 'Up Next', which will highlight the next date one or more contests are being held. It's not particularly exciting with only one, but here's the Democratic map using that filter:
February 1, 2016
The polling is (should be) done, and the vote takes place tonight at the Iowa caucuses.
Republicans: Donald Trump has led in all recent polls, averaging a four point margin over Ted Cruz in the last five polls. Rubio has been gaining some momentum in recent surveys, although the 'gold star' Iowa poll out over the weekend had him well back of Cruz and Trump. It wouldn't be terribly surprising if there was a very close 3-way battle tonight; perhaps with Trump, Cruz and Rubio finishing within 5% of each other.
Democrats: Polls have varied widely in this race, although many of the most recent ones have shown a slight lead for Hillary Clinton. It appears that turnout for the Sanders campaign will be crucial in determining whether the Vermont Senator can score an important early win. Either way, it is looking good for Sanders in next week's New Hampshire primary. A new poll out this AM has him up by 31 points over Clinton.
February 1, 2016
Third term Republican Reid Ribble (WI-08) announced his retirement over the weekend, turning a safe Republican district into a toss-up race for 2016.
37 House members have announced they are not running this year, 22 Republicans and 15 Democrats. Of those, eight Republican seats are highly competitive (toss-up or lean per Sabato's Crystal Ball). Four are competitive on the Democratic side.
Seven members of each party are leaving to run for the U.S. Senate; a single Democrat is running for governor with another running for local office. The remaining six Democrats and 15 Republicans are retiring (or have not announced plans to run for another public office).
The full list of departures, as of February 1, follows:
January 30, 2016
The final pre-caucus Iowa poll released tonight showed Donald Trump with a 28% to 23% lead over Ted Cruz, with Marco Rubio at 15%. This is a 6 point improvement for Trump over the prior poll in mid-January, turning a 3 point deficit into the 5 point lead.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 45% to 42%. Both Clinton and Sanders made small gains over the last poll, with the net margin not changing much.
The poll is conducted by Selzer & Company, the best pollster in politics, and sponsored by the Des Moines Register.
January 30, 2016
The New York Times has endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination while giving the nod to Ohio Governor John Kasich for the Republican nomination.
The Times says that, in Clinton, the Democrats "have the chance to nominate one of the most broadly and deeply qualified presidential candidates in modern history." While complimentary of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the Times says that he "does not have the breadth of experience or policy ideas that Mrs. Clinton offers."
As might be expected, the paper was not as glowing about the Republican field, finding businessman Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz "equally objectionable for different reasons." In a lesser-of-evils pick, the times gives the nod to Kasich: "...though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race."
The pre-caucus Des Moines Register Poll, conducted by the well-respected pollster Selzer & Company, will be released this evening at 6:45PM ET. This should be our final look at how Iowa is shaping up before the actual caucuses take place. Their last poll showed Ted Cruz with a three point lead over Donald Trump, down from ten points before Christmas.
More recent Iowa polls have shown Trump ahead, averaging a 6 point average lead over Cruz. Marco Rubio has been showing signs of strength as well, possibly helped by the Register's recent endorsement of him.
January 28, 2016
Donald Trump has leads ranging from 7 to 19 points over Ted Cruz in three early voting states, a new set of polls from NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist shows. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have huge leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively, while Iowa is essentially tied four days in advance of the February 1 caucuses.
Trump leads by 7 in Iowa, the poll found. This is consistent with most recent polls, as is his much larger 19 point lead in New Hampshire. There's been less polling in South Carolina, although here too there's not much new with Trump's 16 point lead.
Marco Rubio has made nice gains in Iowa; this latest poll has him at 18%, his highest number there yet. The top 3 candidates in Iowa now have support from 75% of likely caucus goers. In New Hampshire, it continues to lok like a tight battle for 2nd, with Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich basically tied, with Bush and Christie within the margin of error.
For the Democrats, the real battle seems to be for Iowa. Sanders has pulled well ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, while Clinton continues to dominate the polling in South Carolina.
It will be interesting to see how the polls from New Hampshire and South Carolina change after Iowa has had its say.
January 26, 2016
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz remain locked in a tight battle six days before the February 1 Iowa caucuses, a new Quinnipiac University poll found. These results are virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac's prior poll released two weeks ago.
Overall, Trump holds about a five point leader in the 270toWin Iowa average, with much higher volatility across pollsters, ranging from a two point lead for Cruz to an eleven point lead for Trump. Rubio has been consistent in the low teens, and looks likely to finish third.
Part of the reason the Iowa polls are so varied is that the caucus format is difficult for pollsters to model; much depends on which organization does the best job at getting its supporters to the caucus sessions. One area that impacts turnout is the weather. At this point, the National Weather Service is showing pretty benign weather for next Monday. Des Moines shows mostly cloudy, with a high of 34, while the Cedar Rapids forecast is for a slight chance of snow with a high of 33. These highs are close to the average for early February.