Election News

Suspending a Campaign vs. Ending It

If you've ever wondered why candidates 'suspend' their campaigns instead of just declaring them over, it mostly boils down to two things. First, in the unlikely event that the world changes, it is easier to revive the campaign. However, the main reason is that it takes a while to wind down a campaign, paying off bills/debts etc. This article from 2012 discusses some of this in a bit more detail.

The upcoming Republican debate, hosted by CNN at the Reagan presidential library, will take place next Wednesday, September 16 at 8PM EDT. It will be preceded by a forum for lower-polling candidates, which will take place at 6PM.

CNN recently changed the debate criteria so that Carly Fiorina, who has polled well since the first debate, could participate. At this point, it appears that there will be 16 candidates participating between the two debates. The first debate will include all 10 from the first Fox debate plus Fiorina (names are those in the above image), with Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki invited to the earlier event. 

Republican Primary/Caucus: Donald Trump leads in both states, coming in at just under 30% support. In Iowa, only Ben Carson comes close, at 22%; no other candidate exceeds 6%. In New Hampshire, John Kasich and Ben Carson trail trump, both in the low teens. It is interesting to also note regional differences in candidate support; see table below. That's a reminder that national polling should be viewed somewhat skeptically, as the nomination will be decided based on the results of state-level contests that take place over several months. 

General Election: The poll surveyed Clinton or Biden vs. Bush or Trump. The most notable results were that Bush has opened up an 11 point lead over Clinton in Iowa and that Biden outperforms her vs. these prospective Republican challengers. Keep in mind that Biden is not in the race, and he's not being subject to the attacks and negative publicity that accompany a campaign. Visit our 2016 general election poll page to follow all the polls. 

Joe Biden was surveyed against Bush and Trump, leading Bush by 3 points and Trump by 6 points. Bernie Sanders lost 3 of the 5 match-ups he was in, most notably by 6 points to Ben Carson.

Visit our 2016 presidential election poll page for all the national and state-level general election surveys.

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Bored at the office? Try our States I've Visited Electoral Map.

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Fiorina participated in an earlier forum at the August 6 Fox debate, and her strong performance has propelled her to well within the top 10 in polls taken since then.

The new CNN rules will keep the original criteria, while adding a separate criteria to include those in the top 10 for polls taken post-debate until September 10.

This likely means 11 participants at the September 16 debate, including the 10 candidates from the first debate plus Fiorina. As it turns out, this appears to be a good break point, based on the average of the most recent polls: 

Here's the full CNN statement on the rules change. The debate will take place at the Reagan Presidential Library.

Democratic Nomination: Clinton led with 45%, with Sanders at 22% and Biden at 18%. Clinton has lost 10% off the 55% she received in the last Quinnipiac poll. Half of that support has moved to Sanders, half to Biden. 

General Election: The Democratic nominee was ahead in most of these match-ups, although usually pretty close. What was most interesting is that VP Biden, still not in the race, is outperforming his prospective rivals vs. Republicans. Of course, the very fact that he's not in the race might have something to do with this.  

Quinnipiac also asked "What is the first word that comes to mind..." in regards to Clinton, Bush and Trump. We've compiled the top 10 for each candidate below; use the links in the preceding sentence to go to the full list. Some amusing responses.

Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in the 2nd consecutive poll of New Hampshire democrats, and has now taken the lead based on a 270toWin average of recent polls. Sanders enjoys a regional benefit here, being well-known as Senator from neighboring Vermont. That said, while Clinton leads in most other places, the outsized importance of New Hampshire as an early primary state should give added visibility to Sanders.

The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for February 9, 2016.

Bush remains in third place overall when averaging the two recent Texas polls. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 1, 2016, part of the 'SEC Primary' of 8 southern states.

Click or tap the image above to see who is leading the Republican polls in each state.

• Bush and Rubio have moved well ahead of Clinton in Florida
• Biden does as well as, or better than Clinton vs. Republicans
• Bush and Rubio are outperforming Trump vs. Democrats

These new numbers have caused some changes on our polling-based Clinton vs. Republican 2016 electoral maps. You can also get to our new Sanders vs. Republicans maps from that preceding URL.

In the Republican primaries, Trump is ahead in Florida, notably taking the lead over home-state rivals Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State. Trump also leads, by double digits, in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, that state's governor John Kasich leads, with Trump in 2nd.

 Hillary Clinton continues to hold a wide margin on the Democratic primaries in all 3 states, where the results were basically the same. That said, she is now polling under 50% in all three states, a loss of 8-15 points since the last time Quinnipiac surveyed these states in June.

To see all the primary/caucus polls to this point, visit our Republican Nomination or Democratic Nomination pages. The individual state links are below the national polls.

Debate Implications

The 2nd Republican debate, hosted by CNN, will be held September 16 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA. 16 candidates that averaged 1% or more in 3 national polls have been invited. Jim Gilmore was not, although he has until September 10 to make the cut.

As with the first debate, the field will be divided into two groups, with those in the top 10 making the main stage. At this point, it looks like 11 candidates will be fighting for those 10 slots. Carly Fiorina's strong performance in the 'kids's table' debate last month has propelled her into the top 10. This means that one of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Fiorina, John Kasich or Chris Christie will likely be excluded. All 5 are tightly bunched within 1% at this time.