Georgia's 6th congressional district special election remains a nail-biter, a new poll from Landmark Communications for WSB-TV finds. Democrat Jon Ossoff leads Republican Karen Handel by one point, 49% to 48%. Just 3% say they are undecided 2 1/2 weeks out from the June 20 runoff.
Despite the fact that more than $36 million has been spent on this race, the most expensive House election in U.S. history, the findings of this poll are consistent with just about every survey taken since late March. All but one of these polls has found the candidates separated by two points or less, well within the margin of error.
Republican Greg Gianforte will become Montana's at-large congressional representative after winning Thursday's special election by about 6 points over Democrat Rob Quist. The race, already more competitive than expected, was thrown into last-minute turmoil Wednesday night as Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after an altercation with a reporter. It appears that incident didn't have a huge impact on the outcome, with nearly 2/3 of the total votes cast in the election submitted by mail prior to Election Day.
Gianforte apologized for the incident, and to the reporter by name, while speaking to supporters Thursday night. He is scheduled to appear in court on June 7th.
Montanans will go to the polls today to fill their at-large Congressional seat. The seat has been vacant since Ryan Zinke resigned on March 1st to become President Trump's Secretary of the Interior. The polls are open until 8:00PM Mountain Time (10:00PM Eastern).
The race, already more competitive than originally expected, was thrown into last-minute turmoil Wednesday night when the Republican, Greg Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after an altercation with a reporter from The Guardian. While Democrats called on Gianforte to withdraw, it is unclear how much of an impact this event will have on today's vote. Over 250,000 ballots have already been returned by mail in a state with just 699,000 registered voters, according to The New York Times. In the 2016 general election, about 517,000 votes were cast in the state. That 74% turnout is unlikely to be replicated for a special election on the Thursday before a holiday weekend. This means the majority of votes in this election have already been cast.
Additionally, while there's no across-the-board data, early voting in many elections is often disproportionately Democratic vis-a-vis Election Day itself, when more Republicans tend to vote. Some of that can be seen in the most recent poll on the race. While finding a 14 point lead for Gianforte, his Democratic opponent Rob Quist held a one point lead among those in the poll who had already voted. The point is: Given the current war on the media from the right, some of today's voters in this conservative state will look favorably on Gianforte's standing up to a reporter.
Democrat Jon Ossoff has a 7 point lead over Republican Karen Handel in a new SurveyUSA poll of 549 likely voters in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. Ossoff is at 51%, Handel 44%. The runoff election is four weeks from Tuesday (June 20th).
For those that want to communicate with one or more of their elected representatives, we've updated our elected officials look-up with a variety of contact information. You can see (where available): Mailing address, phone number, e-mail and website. For Congress, Facebook and Twitter links are also included.
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Five weeks out from the June 20th runoff, a new Gravis Marketing poll mirrors what other polling has found: A highly competitive race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel. This new poll of 870 likely voters gave Ossoff a two point lead, 47% to 45%. This is within the poll's 3.3% margin of error.
Ossoff's 47% is little changed from the 48% he received in the April 18th non-partisan primary. Handel received 20% on that date, although her vote was split among a number of viable Republican alternatives. Since nobody received a majority of the vote, these two will meet in the June runoff.
This race has attracted national attention and, as we noted earlier this month, will be the most expensive House race in U.S. history.
Passage of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) and President Trump's unpopularity are combining to make many more Republican House seats look competitive in the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new analysis from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. They have moved the ratings of 18 seats in the direction of Democrats, including 13 that have moved into the lean/toss-up category.
Raul Labrador, in his 4th term representing Idaho's first congressional district, has announced he will run for governor of the state in 2018. He will be the 8th person to join the race to replace retiring incumbent Butch Otter. Idaho is one of 36 gubernatorial seats to be contested next year. In addition, Virginia and New Jersey will elect a new state chief executive in 2017. Check our 2017-18 interactive gubernatorial map for more details.
Labrador becomes the 12th House retirement this cycle. This includes eight Republicans and four Democrats. Four of these (all Republicans) are retiring (or have not announced other plans), while six are running for governor and two for the U.S. Senate. All eight of those elections will take place in 2018. Only two of the 12 House seats are seen as highly competitive in 2018, one from each party.
Two recent polls of Montana's upcoming U.S. House special election show a single digit lead for the Republican. The seat became vacant after Ryan Zinke resigned March 1 to become Secretary of the Interior.
The most recent poll, from Gravis Marketing, gives Republican Greg Gianforte an 8 point lead over his Democratic challenger Rob Quist. A late April poll from Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang showed a similar 6 point Gianforte lead.
This is a statewide race, as Montana has a single congressional district. The seat has been in Republican hands since 1997. Zinke won re-election by 16% last November, while Trump did even better, outpacing Hillary Clinton by 20%.
The Hill notes that "The 2020 presidential election could feature the most crowded Democratic primary in decades, with scores of Democrats rumored as potential contenders." They've come up with a list of 43 possible candidates, including many from outside the political sphere, as Trump's success essentially opens the playing field to just about anyone with name recognition and money.
