Election News

Nearly two in three respondents to the overnight 270toWin straw poll said Donald Trump had won the Fox Business Republican debate. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were roughly tied for second, far back at around 10%. The remainder of the seven participants were selected by fewer than 5% of respondents.

Who do you think won the January 14, 2016 Fox Business Republican debate? Vote now in our straw poll.

As the Republican candidate (except for Rand Paul) gather for tonight's Fox Business-hosted debates in Charleston, national polling continues to show Donald Trump well ahead of his nearest challengers. In an NBC News / WSJ poll out this afternoon, Trump had 33%, a 13 point lead over Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio and Ben Carson were also in double digits. 

An NBC News/Marist Iowa Poll out this morning shows Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders just 3% behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; within the poll's margin of error. This is the first Iowa poll of 2016 and comes just three weeks prior to the state's February 1 caucuses. Clinton remains well ahead in our Iowa poll average, so it remains to be seen if this latest poll is an outlier or a shift toward Sanders.

Our new interactive Senate map is now live. This three-part map will let you view the current Senate, create and share your 2016 forecast and see the impact on the 2017 Senate.

Check out these features and tips for more informaton on the functionality of the map.

Happy Presidential Election New Year! There are 312 days until the 2016 presidential election. This year will also see contests for all 435 House seats as well as 12 gubernatorial contests. Republicans currently hold the House with 246 seats (218 needed for control) and control 31 of the 50 state executive chairs.

Republicans also control the Senate, with 54 of the 100 seats. Unlike the House, where Republicans will most likely hold power, the Senate is once again up for grabs. Republicans gained control in 2014, when most seats up were held by Democrats. The situation is reversed this year, with 24 of the 34 elections held by Republican incumbents. Outside the presidential election, this will be the most interesting area to watch and forecast.

Former New York Governor George Pataki, who struggled to gain traction in a very crowded Republican field, is reportedly going to end his campaign. 

If true, this will leave 12 candidates vying for the party's 2016 nomination.

Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, running a distant third in the Democratic presidential field, drew just one person - a man named Kenneth - to an event in Iowa on Monday, the Hill reports. 

Despite the one-on-one time, O'Malley was unable to convince Kenneth to vote for him at the Iowa caucus, although he did have some nice things to say about the candidate.

According to Politico, Fox Business will announce qualifying criteria for the next Republican debate on Tuesday. The main stage could see as few as six participants. Those who place in the top 6 nationally based on the 5 most recent recognized polls as of January 11 will qualify. If any other candidate is in the top 5 in New Hampshire or Iowa based on recent state polls, they will also qualify.

Once again, there will be a preliminary debate. In this case, those with 1% in one or more of five recognized polls will qualify.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham suspended his presidential campaign Monday, Politico reports. Today was the final day for Graham to remove himself from the ballot for the February 20 South Carolina Republican primary. Graham was only averaging 1.8% in his home state, good for a distant 9th in the then 14-person race. Graham's national poll numbers were even worse, averaging less than 1%. As such, he could never crack the main debate stage, which limited his ability to gain exposure.

The Politico article notes that Graham now has an opportunity to be kingmaker in South Carolina, giving him a chance to be more vocal about his opposition to Donald Trump and fellow Senator Ted Cruz.