Election News

While 2017 is an off-year in the political cycle, there are still a few seats being contested this fall.

(9/26) Alabama U.S. Senate Republican Runoff:  With no candidate achieving a majority, the top two vote getters from last month's Republican primary will meet next Tuesday, with the winner moving on to the special election in December. Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of Alabama's Supreme Court won that primary, with the incumbent Senator, Luther Strange finishing 6 points back.  Moore has led in the polling conducted since the primary, sometimes by double-digits, although some polls have been much closer.  The most recent poll has him up by a 50-42% margin. Strange has the endorsement of President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell; both Trump and Vice President Pence will campaign for the incumbent prior to the runoff.

Seeking a more active role for the state in choosing the next Democratic presidential nominee, The California Legislature has approved a bill to move the presidential primary from June 2nd to March 3rd in 2020. The bill has been sent to Gov. Jerry Brown for his signature. 

The state controlled over 11% of Democratic delegates in 2016, but Hillary Clinton was already the presumptive nominee by the time the state voted that year. If the move becomes law and assuming the same roster of Super Tuesday states - and delegate distribution - in 2020, approximately 1/3 of all delegates will be awarded that day, up from about 20% in 2016. 

2nd term GOP congressman Dave Trott (MI-11) has announced he won't seek reelection to the House in 2018. Politico reports that "Trott is the third Republican to vacate a potential battleground district ahead of the 2018 midterm elections."  The 11th district sits* to the north and west of Detroit. Trott won reelection last year by almost 13%, while Trump bested Clinton by 4.5%. 

Last week saw similar decisions announced by Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08). All three districts are now potentially in play for 2018, with the Michigan and Washington races seen as toss-up; Pennsylvania as leans Republican. Of course, the quality of the nominees from each party, as well as the overall political enviroment at this time next year will determine if these districts are actually competitive.

With Trott's decision, 25 House members, including 17 Republicans and 8 Democrats, have decided to retire or run for another office. 

From Time: "The House voted overwhelmingly on Friday to send a $15.3 billion disaster aid package to President Donald Trump, overcoming conservative objections to linking the emergency legislation to a temporary increase in America's borrowing authority. The legislation also keeps the government funded into December." 

The bill passed the House in a bipartisan 316-90 vote. The 90 no votes, all Republican, were primarily on a philsophical objection to tying debt ceiling and government funding actions to other issues. 

Curious how your (or any) Representative voted?  Click or tap the map below. On the landing page, you can see how your Representative voted, as well as the votes of those expected to be in competitive 2018 races. You can also click or tap any individual state to see how all that state's representatives voted. 

The Washington Post reports that "Republican Congressman Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, leader of an influential caucus of GOP moderates in the House, has announced he will not seek re-election to an eighth House term next year."

Dent has been a frequent critic of President Trump.

This somewhat surprising announcement puts Pennsylvania's 15th district in play for 2018. The rating moves from safe to leans Republican. Six of Pennsylvania's 18 districts, primarily those in the suburbs/exurbs of Philadelphia, look to be competitive this year:

Several updates on the House retirement front:

Republican 4th term Rep. Lou Barletta (PA-11) will forego reelection to the House next year to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey. This race is currently rated Likely Democratic by Sabato's Crystal. Ball. In their latest review, from late August, they said: 

"Let’s start in the two states that hypothetically should be the easiest for [Democrats] to hold, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They, like New Jersey and Virginia, are rated as Likely Democratic, but we include them here as potentially more fruitful GOP targets, both because of the states’ 2016 turn toward Trump and also because of the potential for intriguing Republican nominees against Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Bob Casey (D-PA).

In the Keystone State, it appears as though Trump ally Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA-11) is going to run. While there are other candidates running, Barletta would have the biggest profile, although Casey’s two victories both have been fairly comfortable."

The Cook Political Report has made five ratings changes in their 2018 Senate forecast. Four races have moved to toss-up, including Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and West Virginia. Of those, only Nevada currently has a Republican incumbent.  

Roy Moore and Sen. Luther Strange took the top two spots in Tuesday's Alabama Senate Republican primary. As neither received more than 50% of the vote, they will meet in a runoff on September 26th. The winner that day will face off against Democrat Doug Jones, who advanced to the general election by winning over 60% of the vote in the Democratic primary. The general election will be held on December 12th.

6th Term Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas (MA-03) has announced she will not seek reelection to the House in 2018. This brings to 21 the number of Representatives that will not seek another term. The updated list, along with the current ratings, courtesy of Sabato's Crystal Ball, can be seen in the table below.

Of the 21 leaving the House, 13 are Republicans (R), eight are Democrats (D). Eight (5R, 3D) are running for governor of their state, while five (3R, 2D) are running for U.S. Senate. One Democrat is running for president in 2020. The remaining seven (5R, 2D) are retiring, or are not currently seeking another office. 15 seats (9R, 6D) are considered safe for the incumbent party, while the other six (4R, 2D) are expected to be at least somewhat competitive.