Election News

Full results, as well as other national and state polls can be found on our 2016 polls page.

Turning to the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio led in both polls, showing 15% support in the Quinnipiac poll, 13% in the Fox News survey. Overall the field remains tightly bunched.

It is possible that some of these poll results are a bit distorted by current news: Rubio's recent 2016 announcement and enhanced scrutiny of Clinton since her official announcement. Time will tell.

Democratic Primary: Clinton received 69% share in the survey, her highest number to-date. The poll did not include Elizabeth Warren as a named option with most of her support (10%) in the last CNN-ORC poll going to the front-runner. Former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee was polled for the first time, receiving 1%.

General Election: Clinton crushes the Republican field in each prospective match-up. Rubio performs best, trailing Clinton by 14%. Hard to read too much into the general election numbers at this point, given the awareness advantage Clinton has over a fragmented Republican field.

Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 58% of the Democratic (and leaning Democratic) vote, with Elizabeth Warren at 14% and Joe Biden at 12%. 

General Election: Clinton's lead ranges from 8% over Rand Paul to 16% over Ted Cruz. Her lead is 11% over Jeb Bush and 12% over Marco Rubio and Walker. Interestingly, Walker received exactly 40% support in both the primary and general election surveys. The initial NBC 2016 Electoral Map* (from late 2014) shows Wisconsin as a possible battleground state, although this poll and one taken last month don't support that idea. Wisconsin last voted Republican in the 1984 Reagan landslide; Obama won the state by 7% in 2012.

*For those of you visiting from a mobile device, you will now be able to see and use 270toWin interactive maps. We have launched a map that doesn't use Flash for those visiting from smartphones and tablets.

Home Page: On a mobile device, you'll see the new map, initially set to the results of the 2012 election. Tap states to create your own forecast. If cookies are enabled, your map should be as you left it when you return to 270toWin

Shared Forecasts: You can view maps created on the Flash version and shared by others. These will be displayed using the new map. For example, the NBC Battleground 2016 map. 

Polling Maps: We've created a series of electoral maps that show how different Republicans are performing against Hillary Clinton, purely based on early polling. These will now be visible on your device.

In the weeks ahead, we'll be upgrading the new map, adding many of the other features of the Flash map. 

If you have any feedback or run into any issues, please add a comment to let us know.

There hasn't been a great deal of early polling for a general election match-up between Rubio and Hillary Clinton; that link will let you track the race and also links to an interactive map that looks at polling + 2012 results in unpolled states.

While Clinton enters the 2016 race as a prohibitive favorite, it is worth noting that she was the presumed front-runner at this same time in 2007, polling about 35-40%, about 10% ahead of a not-yet-well-known Senator from Illinois. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani was seeing twice as much support as John McCain.

Looking ahead to November, 2016, there has been some polling on Clinton vs. a number of prospective Republican nominees. We're tracking those with a series of electoral maps*. 

*We are creating a non-Flash version of our interactive electoral maps to provide a much better experience for the growing percentage of 270toWin visitors viewing the site from a mobile device. You should start seeing this map in the next few weeks. 

Paul and Cruz have both been averaging about 10% in Republican primary polls, trailing but competitive with early polling frontrunners Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. Looking to the general election, should it be Paul vs. Hillary Clinton, early polling has Clinton with the advantage. However, when considering polled states + 2012 results for unpolled ones, this is the only match-up that doesn't currently show Clinton ahead in states totaling 270 electoral votes.

Florida: Former governor Jeb Bush leads with 24% of the vote with Senator Marco Rubio in 3rd at 12%. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is in-between, with 15%. These results are similar to those seen in last week's Public Policy poll. Rubio is scheduled to announce his 2016 plans on April 13. 

Ohio: Senator John Kasich garnered 20% of the vote; the only candidate to crack double-digits. Kasich has gotten little support in other polling, but his popularity in this critical general election battleground could become important. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.  

Pennsylvania: Walker was the only prospective candidate with double-digit support here, and the only one to finish in the top three in all three states polled. Former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second at 9%. Santorum has gotten little support elsewhere.

Quinnipiac also polled the Democratic field in these three states. Hillary Clinton's support ranged from 48% in Pennsylvania, to 54% in Ohio, to 65% in Florida. While Clinton is clearly ahead, this wide variation in support for the presumptive (if she runs) nominee might be something to monitor. 

• Jeb Bush leads Clinton by 45% to 42% in Florida. While within the margin of error, this is one of the stronger Republican showings vs. Clinton seen in 2016 competitive state polling thus far
• Rand Paul leads Clinton by 45% to 44% in Pennsylvania
• Scott Walker's recent strong performance in Republican primary polling is not yet carrying over to the general electorate. Walker trails Clinton by 5% to 11% across the three states
• Clinton is polling strongest overall in Ohio, leading by an average of 8.6% (vs. 4% to 5% in the other two states). A Republican has never won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

We've made a few updates to our polling-based HRC vs. GOP electoral maps.