2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator

This three-part calculator allows you to monitor the progress of the leading Democratic candidates as they pursue the 1,991 pledged delegates required to win the 2020 Democratic nomination on the first ballot.

The Estimated Actual button will look back at completed contests. The Polling Average button projects where each candidate will end up based on polling. The Custom Calculator button lets you create your own forecast for each state, with the option to set withdrawal dates.

See Using the Delegate Calculator for more detailed instructions. See the notes below the table on this page for limitations on projecting delegates with polling averages.

A note about ties and fractional delegates: A tied result is extremely unlikely in the real world – the Democratic party calculates results to 3 decimal places (one thousandth of a percentage point). It is more likely to occur in polling, where results are generally reported to the nearest percentage point. In situations where there is a tie involving an odd number of delegates, the calculator will split the final delegate between those in the tie. This may lead to fractional delegate totals. You can remove any ties in the Custom Calculator.

Estimates based on polling are directionally useful, but there are a couple notable reasons why the delegate count will vary.

• Some delegates are awarded based on the statewide vote but the majority are based on the outcome in each congressional district (or other local jurisdiction). Our calculator evaluates each district independently - expand any row for detail - but we are limited to using statewide polling. District-to-district differences in voting will affect the accuracy of the estimate. In addition, the party’s 15% threshold also applies in each district. For example, a candidate that gets 14% statewide will likely exceed 15% in one or more districts, thus earning some delegates.
• Polling assumes each candidate will still be in the race when that state’s primary or caucus is held. However, the reality is that early nominating contests will almost certainly reduce the field. In addition, those early contests will affect voter perception of the viability of each remaining candidate. This sequencing will significantly affect the allocation of delegates.