Election News

While limited, polling in the Lone Star State has been pretty similar over the past several weeks, with most surveys showing a small, but consistent lead of about 3 points for Trump. This spread was seen again in today's U. Texas poll.

Trump now leads by 3.6% on average. While that spread keeps Texas a toss-up in the electoral map based on polls, the consistency of the polling - not to mention the state's voting history - would point to him having the advantage with just over 10 days to go until Election Day.

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Consensus Pundit Map: This is the composite Election Day forecast of 15 organizations. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least 13 pundits are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.  

Hillary Clinton's average lead has increased by 12 since Wednesday, with Clinton up four to 304, while Donald Trump dropped 8 to 179. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

Since our last update on October 13th, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's average total electoral votes are little changed. Clinton is at 300, Trump 187. Within Trump's average, however, we are beginning to see an erosion in states where the Republican nominee is favored vs. those that are leaning in his direction. For example, a couple forecasters have moved Texas from favored to leaning. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

Trump still leads by about 6 points in the state polling average, and he has led every poll (aside from a tied online survey) conducted this year. While the state will almost certainly yield a closer result in 2016 than in recent elections, Trump should prevail here barring a Clinton landslide. Texas last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The state still rates as leaning Trump in the electoral map based on polls.

Since our last update on October 5th, Hillary Clinton's average total electoral votes climbed from 280 to 300, most of which derived from forecasters moving states out of toss-up. Donald Trump's average only fell slightly, from 193 to 189. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

Looking at those 11 seats, Illinois and Wisconsin seem to be the Republican seats most likely to flip, although the Wisconsin polling has been quite a bit closer lately. The incumbent Republicans in three states (Arizona, Florida, Ohio) are leading in the polls. If those five seats fall that way, we'll have 47 Democrats and 47 Republicans, meaning control of the Senate would depend on the remaining six toss-up races:

Our three-way electoral map allows you to consider the possibility that a 3rd party could win electoral votes in 2016. Specific names can be set by clicking to the left of the electoral counter. We've given Utah to McMullin in the example below.

The partial poll release has been removed from our database. Below, we compare the results to the last full NBC/WSJ poll from September 21.

Both head-head and where 3rd parties were included, Clinton's lead grew by 3 points overall. However, the post-debate margin of 7 points is roughly the same as the full mid-September poll, so maybe we are right back to where we were a few weeks ago. That said, a 7 point lead nationally is significant - about the same margin as Barack Obama defeated John McCain in 2008. In that election, Obama received 365 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed to win.