The Upshot team at The New York Times has taken a look at the electoral map for a general election match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. They see a challenging landscape for the presumptive Republican nominee if he cannot improve his standing in the polls between now and November.
Use the link above to read the article. For those that want to play around with the scenarios in it, we've created interactive versions of the maps. Click or tap any one of them to get started.
Scenario 1: Based on current polling, Clinton wins 347-191. This is the actual 2012 electoral map with North Carolina flipping to the Democrats.
Scenario 2: Trump improves by 5% in each state's polling; Clinton narrowly wins 285-253. This is the 2012 map with Ohio and Florida moving from blue to red.
Scenario 3: Trump improves by 10% in each state's polling; Trump wins 305-233 by earning an additional 52 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.
This analysis assumes that shifts across states would move in tandem. It's a reasonable way to look at things at this point. However, given that Trump's philosophy diverges from other recent Republican nominees, it is possible that his campaign may need to focus its efforts in such a way that a winning electoral map would end up somewhat differently than the above.
Embed or share your own electoral map: We've made it easier to share electoral forecasts via social media or to embed a map, like the above, on any web page. Just click or tap 'Share Map', and utlize the buttons that become active below the map. One of those is an Embed button that will let you copy a few lines of HTML to place the map on your page.
Ohio governor John Kasich will suspend his campaign today, the Wall Street Journal reports. Kasich was fourth in delegates, having only won his home state of Ohio, yet his campaign was the last one to yield to Donald Trump.
Kasich's suspension comes on the heels of a similar announcement by Texas Senator Ted Cruz last night. The Republican field, once 17-deep, is now down to just Trump.
Trump will meet Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
Here's the latest (in some cases only) poll for Clinton vs. Trump in each state. This is limited to polls conducted in 2016. Alongside the result is the party winner of the last four presidential elections.
A new Public Policy Polling survey of West Virginia shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead in advance of next Tuesday's Republican primary there. For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders has a single digit lead over Hillary Clinton. This is the first poll of the state since February.
The West Virginia Republican primary awards 34 delegates in what Politico has called "a mind-boggingly compex delegate election process". That said, given Trump's 61% showing in this poll (22% for Cruz, 14% for Kasich) and the increasing likelihood that he's on a path to the nomination, it would be reasonable to expect he'll do well in the delegate count despite the system.
Sanders leads Clinton by 8 points in the Democratic West Virginia primary, 45 to 37. The state awards 29 pledged delegates which, as in other Democratic contests, will be allocated proportionately partially based on the statewide result, partially based on each congressional district.
Looking ahead to November, West Virginia's 5 electoral votes seem safe for the GOP. In the most likely match-up, Trump leads Clinton by 57% to 30%. The only scenario where the poll shows the election would be close is Ted Cruz vs. Bernie Sanders. This is not a surprise, when looking at the state's history. Starting with the Great Depression-era election of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, West Virginia was a pretty reliable 'blue state' through 1996, when it voted with Bill Clinton for a 2nd time. Since then, however, the state has voted Republican, with increasing margins in each election. Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by abput 27 points in 2012.
Indiana holds the only primary this week. The polls are open 6AM to 6PM local time. Part of the state is in Central Time, meaning the last polls would close at 7PM Eastern Time. That is likely when the networks will begin reporting results. Depending on the outcome, the narrative may begin to shift to a prospective Trump vs. Clinton match-up this fall.
Republican: Trump is at about 1,000 delegates after his strong showing on the East Coast the past two weeks. Indiana has 57 delegates, awarded on a split winner take all basis. 30 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner, with the remaining 27 awarded, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's 9 congressional districts.
Reviewing the polls, Trump has a 3 point lead, on average. However, Trump likely has the momentum heading into Tuesday. The two most recent polls have him up by 9 to 15 points. The one poll that shows Cruz well ahead was a survey conducted over a two week period. A Trump victory statewide seems likely; the question then becomes how many congressional districts he will win. Assuming it is at least 5, that will put him over 1,050 delegates, well inside 200 of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination.
Looking ahead, there's been no polling for next week's Nebraska primary, which awards 36 delegates on a winner take all basis. The conventional wisdom has been that Cruz will win there. However, the prediction markets have made a pronounced move in Trump's direction over the past week; with his probability of winning doubling, to near 60%.
If Trump were to take Indiana and then win in Nebraska, his path to 1,237 would be that much more clear. Map it out with our interactive delegate calculator.
Democrat: Clinton enters the week about 200 delegates short of the required 2,383. This includes superdelegates. Bernie Sanders strategy revolves around leading in pledged delegates by the time the primary calendar wraps up and then convincing the superdelegates to switch their positon at the Democratic Convention. The math is not in his favor. It is also worth noting that, in the superdelegate era, Al Gore was the only Democrat to arrive at the convention having clinched the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone.
Looking specifically at Indiana, most polls give Clinton a single digit lead; it averages about 6 points. Tuesday's primary will award 83 pledged delegates, allocated proportionately based on statewide and individual district results. This proportional approach, common to all Democratic contests, makes a late-in-the-campaign comeback by Sanders all that much more challenging.
Neither Trump nor Clinton is likely to officially clinch the nomination until the California primary on June 7. However, it seems increasingly likely they will meet in November.
This week's 5 East Coast primaries, dominated by Hillary Clinton & Donald Trump, have moved those candidates much closer to a general election meeting on November 8th.
On the Republican side, after sweeping all five states on Tuesday, Trump is now just short of 1,000 delegates. While he outperformed across the board, his biggest boost is coming from Pennsylvania, where he seems to getting the support of the majority of the state's 54 elected, unbound delegates. According to the AP, Trump has thus far secured the commitment of 40 of those, to just 4 for Ted Cruz. While these unbound delegates can theoretically change their mind, the AP is usually pretty conservative with their allocations.
Considering this Pennsylvania windfall, Trump's path to the nomination has gotten a bit easier. Whether he makes it will likely come down to California, although a win in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where Trump leads by 5, would go a long way. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get Trump to 1,237.
The math is much easier for Hillary Clinton. She is now just 200 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. She'll likely pick up about 45 in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where she leads by 6 in the polls. There are only about 235 pledged delegates available during May (including Indiana). Absent a surge in commitments by the remaining superdelegates, Clinton will likely not officially achieve the required number until June 7, the day of the huge (delegate-wise) California primary.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made substantial progress toward their respective party nominations Tuesday night. Trump won all five primaries, while Clinton won four of five. The delegate counts updated as of 8AM Wednesday:
Trump swept to victory in five East Coast states Tuesday, in the process mathematically eliminating Ted Cruz from winning the nomination outside a contested convention. Trump won at least 105 of the day's 118 delegates, and is sitting at 950 as of Wednesday morning. 1,237 are needed to win the nomination.
Trump exceeded polling expectations, easily exceeding 50% in all five states, and surpassing 60% in a couple of them. We've updated the interactive delegate calculator to reflect the results.
Hillary Clinton won all but Rhode Island against Bernie Sanders. When the remaining delegates from Tuesday are allocated, she'll be within about 200 of the 2,383 needed to officially secure the nomination. The Associated Press noted last night that Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination. While Sanders vowed to stay in the race, both campaigns have begun a shift in tone that recognizes that she will, in all likelihood, be the party's 2016 nominee.
Electoral Map: For those that think we are heading toward a Clinton vs. Trump election, our electoral map based on polls will let you see how that race is developing. We wouldn't put too much stock in the November polls to this point; however it certainly will be interesting to see how the map evolves if this is the match-up. Both candidates have high unfavorables, while Trump's areas of strength could yield a map quite different than we've grown accustomed to in the last several elections.
The polls are open until 8PM* in the five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states holding their primaries today. It looks to be a good day for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the delegate counts. Keep in mind these are rough projections; there's not much to go on at the congressional district level where a decent chunk of the delegates will be awarded.
Republican: The image below is from our interactive delegate calculator, where you can create your own forecast of whether Trump will reach the necessary 1,237 delegates before the Republican Convention.
Trump starts the day with 845 delegates, with 118 at stake across the five states. If the polling is even remotely accurate, there's little doubt that Trump will win all five states, likely exceeding 50% in at least a couple of them. Each state has a somewhat different allocation methodology, leading to a variety of delegate outcomes. For details on each state's approach and more polling detail, see our Republican primary preview.
Recent polling has been even more favorable for Trump. Based on that, we expect him to win in the neighborhood of 100 delegates today. This will put him within about 300 of winning the nomination. There are 54 technically unbound Pennsylvania delegates that will be directly elected by the voters today (3 in each congressional district). It is expected that a decent portion of them will support the state or respective congressional district winner. Additionally, next week's Indiana primary, awards 57 delegates on a split winner take all basis. The disposition of these 111 delegates will go a long way toward determining how likely it is that Trump reach 1,237 by the end of the primary season.
Democrat: Clinton is likely to win all five states today, although one recent poll in Rhode Island showed Bernie Sanders slightly ahead. Democratic delegate allocation is essentially the same in each state: Some proportional by statewide vote, others at the congressional district level. There are also a number of unbound superdelegates in each state. The table below shows the breakdown of pledged delegates in each state voting today.
Clinton is projected to grow her lead by about 50 pledged delegates today. More importantly, it takes another 384 delegates off the table. When factoring in committed superdelegates, she will likely need fewer than 20% of those remaining to win the nomination. As we noted in our Democratic primary preview, Clinton is likely to reach the magic number of 2,383 on June 7.
* This information is believed to be accurate, but do not rely on it in deciding when to vote