Election News

Scenario 1: Based on current polling, Clinton wins 347-191. This is the actual 2012 electoral map with North Carolina flipping to the Democrats. 

 

 

Trump will meet Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November. 

Sanders leads Clinton by 8 points in the Democratic West Virginia primary, 45 to 37. The state awards 29 pledged delegates which, as in other Democratic contests, will be allocated proportionately partially based on the statewide result, partially based on each congressional district.

Looking ahead to November, West Virginia's 5 electoral votes seem safe for the GOP. In the most likely match-up, Trump leads Clinton by 57% to 30%. The only scenario where the poll shows the election would be close is Ted Cruz vs. Bernie Sanders. This is not a surprise, when looking at the state's history. Starting with the Great Depression-era election of Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, West Virginia was a pretty reliable 'blue state' through 1996, when it voted with Bill Clinton for a 2nd time. Since then, however, the state has voted Republican, with increasing margins in each election. Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by abput 27 points in 2012.

Reviewing the polls, Trump has a 3 point lead, on average. However, Trump likely has the momentum heading into Tuesday. The two most recent polls have him up by 9 to 15 points. The one poll that shows Cruz well ahead was a survey conducted over a two week period. A Trump victory statewide seems likely; the question then becomes how many congressional districts he will win. Assuming it is at least 5, that will put him over 1,050 delegates, well inside 200 of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination. 

Looking ahead, there's been no polling for next week's Nebraska primary, which awards 36 delegates on a winner take all basis. The conventional wisdom has been that Cruz will win there. However, the prediction markets have made a pronounced move in Trump's direction over the past week; with his probability of winning doubling, to near 60%.

If Trump were to take Indiana and then win in Nebraska, his path to 1,237 would be that much more clear. Map it out with our interactive delegate calculator.

Democrat: Clinton enters the week about 200 delegates short of the required 2,383. This includes superdelegates. Bernie Sanders strategy revolves around leading in pledged delegates by the time the primary calendar wraps up and then convincing the superdelegates to switch their positon at the Democratic Convention. The math is not in his favor. It is also worth noting that, in the superdelegate era, Al Gore was the only Democrat to arrive at the convention having clinched the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone. 

Looking specifically at Indiana, most polls give Clinton a single digit lead; it averages about 6 points. Tuesday's primary will award 83 pledged delegates, allocated proportionately based on statewide and individual district results. This proportional approach, common to all Democratic contests, makes a late-in-the-campaign comeback by Sanders all that much more challenging.

Neither Trump nor Clinton is likely to officially clinch the nomination until the California primary on June 7. However, it seems increasingly likely they will meet in November.

On the Republican side, after sweeping all five states on Tuesday, Trump is now just short of 1,000 delegates. While he outperformed across the board, his biggest boost is coming from Pennsylvania, where he seems to getting the support of the majority of the state's 54 elected, unbound delegates. According to the AP, Trump has thus far secured the commitment of 40 of those, to just 4 for Ted Cruz. While these unbound delegates can theoretically change their mind, the AP is usually pretty conservative with their allocations. 

Considering this Pennsylvania windfall, Trump's path to the nomination has gotten a bit easier. Whether he makes it will likely come down to California, although a win in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where Trump leads by 5, would go a long way. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get Trump to 1,237.

The math is much easier for Hillary Clinton. She is now just 200 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. She'll likely pick up about 45 in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where she leads by 6 in the polls. There are only about 235 pledged delegates available during May (including Indiana). Absent a surge in commitments by the remaining superdelegates, Clinton will likely not officially achieve the required number until June 7, the day of the huge (delegate-wise) California primary.

Trump swept to victory in five East Coast states Tuesday, in the process mathematically eliminating Ted Cruz from winning the nomination outside a contested convention. Trump won at least 105 of the day's 118 delegates, and is sitting at 950 as of Wednesday morning. 1,237 are needed to win the nomination.

Trump exceeded polling expectations, easily exceeding 50% in all five states, and surpassing 60% in a couple of them. We've updated the interactive delegate calculator to reflect the results. 

Hillary Clinton won all but Rhode Island against Bernie Sanders. When the remaining delegates from Tuesday are allocated, she'll be within about 200 of the 2,383 needed to officially secure the nomination. The Associated Press noted last night that Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination. While Sanders vowed to stay in the race, both campaigns have begun a shift in tone that recognizes that she will, in all likelihood, be the party's 2016 nominee.

Electoral Map: For those that think we are heading toward a Clinton vs. Trump election, our electoral map based on polls will let you see how that race is developing. We wouldn't put too much stock in the November polls to this point; however it certainly will be interesting to see how the map evolves if this is the match-up. Both candidates have high unfavorables, while Trump's areas of strength could yield a map quite different than we've grown accustomed to in the last several elections.

Trump sweeps all five states, winning 105 delegates, reaching 950 total. Kasich has won 5 delegates, Cruz 0

Trump has swept delegates in DE, PA, CT. 8 more delegates remain to be allocated.

Trump now only candidate that can reach 1,237 before convention

Clinton wins MD, DE, PA, CT, picking up 190 delegates thus far, surpassing 2,150.  

Sanders wins RI; he has gained 114 delegates tonight. About 80 more delegates remain to be allocated

AP: Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination ow.ly/4n8o70

For detailed vote results, visit the New York Times.

Trump starts the day with 845 delegates, with 118 at stake across the five states. If the polling is even remotely accurate, there's little doubt that Trump will win all five states, likely exceeding 50% in at least a couple of them. Each state has a somewhat different allocation methodology, leading to a variety of delegate outcomes. For details on each state's approach and more polling detail, see our Republican primary preview. 

Recent polling has been even more favorable for Trump. Based on that, we expect him to win in the neighborhood of 100 delegates today. This will put him within about 300 of winning the nomination. There are 54 technically unbound Pennsylvania delegates that will be directly elected by the voters today (3 in each congressional district). It is expected that a decent portion of them will support the state or respective congressional district winner. Additionally, next week's Indiana primary, awards 57 delegates on a split winner take all basis. The disposition of these 111 delegates will go a long way toward determining how likely it is that Trump reach 1,237 by the end of the primary season. 

Democrat:  Clinton is likely to win all five states today, although one recent poll in Rhode Island showed Bernie Sanders slightly ahead. Democratic delegate allocation is essentially the same in each state: Some proportional by statewide vote, others at the congressional district level. There are also a number of unbound superdelegates in each state. The table below shows the breakdown of pledged delegates in each state voting today.

Clinton is projected to grow her lead by about 50 pledged delegates today. More importantly, it takes another 384 delegates off the table. When factoring in committed superdelegates, she will likely need fewer than 20% of those remaining to win the nomination. As we noted in our Democratic primary preview, Clinton is likely to reach the magic number of 2,383 on June 7. 

* This information is believed to be accurate, but do not rely on it in deciding when to vote