Election News

As expected, most of Tuesday's elections were decided pretty quickly.  Among the more notable races:

• Republican Tom Tiffany prevailed in the Wisconsin 7th district special election; keeping that seat in GOP hands

• Kara Eastman easily won the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's 2nd district; setting up a rematch of 2018 against incumbent Republican Don Bacon

• Joe Biden received over 77% of the vote in Nebraska's Democratic presidential primary, winning at least 27 of the 29 available delegates

California District 25 Special Election

The one race that remains undecided is the special election to fill the vacancy in California's 25th district.  Republican Mike Garcia has a lead of 56%-44% in the votes that have been counted thus far.  While Garcia seems more likely to win here than not, no winner has yet been declared. The vast majority of ballots in this race were cast by mail, and many remain to be processed.  

If Garcia does win, it will be the first GOP pickup of a Democratic-held U.S. House seat in the state since 1998.

Two congressional vacancies will be filled via special election Tuesday. In addition, Nebraska is holding its scheduled primary election.  Follow live results below, beginning at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, after polls close in Nebraska and Wisconsin.

California District 25

The more competitive of today's two special elections will be for this Los Angeles-area seat that has been vacant since former Rep. Katie Hill (D) resigned last year.  Hill had been serving in her first term, after defeating incumbent Republican Steve Knight in the 2018 midterms. It was one of seven GOP-held seats in the state that Democrats flipped that year on their way to taking control of the House.

Knight's attempt at regaining the seat he held for two terms was unsuccessful as he finished third in the top two primary.^{1 1}If a candidate had received a majority of the vote in the primary, that person would have been elected. Democrat Christy Smith, a member of the State Assembly, finished first with 36% of the vote. Republican Mike Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, was second with 24%. Across the large 12-person field, however, the vote was pretty evenly split between the two parties.  Most analysts see the race as a toss-up.

Regardless of the outcome of today's election, both Smith and Garcia will be on the ballot again in November, vying for a full two-year term. Turnout may be the ultimate driver in both cases. A standalone special election often yields lower turnout, in which case the most reliable voters - older, white Republicans - may make the difference.  However, in November, a much higher Democratic turnout associated with the presidential election is expected.  Of course, nobody really knows how this will play out in an election conducted during the pandemic.  The vast majority of ballots are expected to be cast by mail, with some in-person polling places open.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Sabato's Crystal ball has made three changes to its gubernatorial ratings, all favoring the incumbent. These moves leave Montana as the only highly-competitive race among the eleven governorships up for election in 2020.

In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper is favored to win a second term; that rating moves from Leans to Likely Democratic.  Meanwhile, incumbents Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Phil Scott in neighboring Vermont each look likely to win a third term - those go from Leans to Likely Republican. Those two New England states are the only ones where terms are two years instead of four.

In Montana, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is termed out; his entry into the U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Steve Daines has made that race much competitive. The gubernatorial race is still taking shape; both parties have competitive primaries on June 2 and the general election is seen as a toss-up.  It is a little surprising that these statewide races are so competitive in a year where President Trump is expected to easily win the state's three electoral votes.  Drew Savicki will discuss Montana politics in the next Road to 270 installment on Monday.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan has become the first Libertarian member of Congress.  The move comes just days after the Republican-turned-independent announced his intention to run for president.  Libertarians will select a nominee at the party's convention, which begins May 22.

To focus on his presidential bid, Amash also announced last week that he would not stand for reelection to his current seat. This may have reflected a political reality - his prospects for winning a 6th term had grown dimmer. In addition, Michigan law precludes someone from running simultaneously for both offices.

U.S. House

With the move by Amash, the U.S. House now has 232 Democrats, 196 Republicans and one Libertarian. There are six vacancies. One of these, in Maryland's 7th district, will be filled by Democrat Kweisi Mfume, who won a special election there last week.  Special elections to fill two other seats are upcoming next Tuesday, May 12. These are in California's 25th district and Wisconsin's 7th district. 

Joe Biden won the Kansas Democratic primary, with about 77% of the vote. Unlike many states, the event was not moved due to the coronavirus. However, it transitioned to a contest conducted entirely by mail - with ballots due back no later than the scheduled May 2 date.

Biden won 29 of the state's 39 pledged delegates. He now has 1,435 of the 1,991 needed to clinch the party's nomination, per NPR and the Associated Press.  Note that this delegate count has been revised slightly to reflect a recent agreement between the Biden and Sanders campaign that allows the Vermont Senator to retain statewide delegates, which would normally not be the case per Democratic party rules. 

Forecasters at the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have moved the South Carolina Senate race from Safe to Likely Republican. The Crystal Ball has also made that same ratings change in Alaska.  These seats remain longshot pickup opportunities for Democrats - particularly given the history of Senate races in presidential election years - but conditions on the ground indicate they have at least some possibility of becoming competitive.

On Tuesday, we'll have results from the Ohio primary and a special election in Maryland's 7th congressional district.  Ohio results are expected after 7:30 PM Eastern Time, while those in Maryland should arrive after 8:00 PM.

Ohio

Ballots had to be postmarked by yesterday, but can still be dropped off today in drop boxes. Any ballots with a timely postmark received by May 8 will be counted, so it is possible that close races may not be called tonight.

President: The state postponed its primary on the eve of the scheduled March 17 date, ultimately turning it into an all-mail election, with few exceptions.  While Joe Biden is expected to win most of the state's 136 pledged delegates, Bernie Sanders - and many other withdrawn candidates - remain on the ballot. Heading into today, Biden has 1,305 of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination.  On the GOP side, Donald Trump is unopposed. He has already clinched renomination.

Editor's Note: We're pleased to welcome Drew Savicki, who is taking over The Road to 270 beginning this week. Drew kicks things off with Connecticut, his state of birth.  Special thanks to Seth Moskowitz for his work bringing this series to life; we wish him well as he moves on to a new career opportunity.  

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The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears.