Gubernatorial Rating Changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sabato's Crystal ball has made three changes to its gubernatorial ratings, all favoring the incumbent. These moves leave Montana as the only highly-competitive race among the eleven governorships up for election in 2020.

In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper is favored to win a second term; that rating moves from Leans to Likely Democratic.  Meanwhile, incumbents Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Phil Scott in neighboring Vermont each look likely to win a third term - those go from Leans to Likely Republican. Those two New England states are the only ones where terms are two years instead of four.

In Montana, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is termed out; his entry into the U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Steve Daines has made that race much competitive. The gubernatorial race is still taking shape; both parties have competitive primaries on June 2 and the general election is seen as a toss-up.  It is a little surprising that these statewide races are so competitive in a year where President Trump is expected to easily win the state's three electoral votes.  Drew Savicki will discuss Montana politics in the next Road to 270 installment on Monday.

Click the image below for an interactive version of the forecast.

 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Democratic Rep. Anthony Brown to Run for Maryland Attorney General

The solidly blue 4th district is expected to remain that way after redistricting

Poll: Virginia Governor's Race a Dead Heat

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are tied at 46% with registered voters

New Hampshire Rockingham District 6 Special GOP Primary

Special general election is December 7. The vacancy occurred when Republican Anne Copp resigned in August.

Two Longtime Democratic House Members Won't Seek Reelection

David Price of North Carolina and Mike Doyle of Pennsylvania will retire at the end of this term

Kentucky Democrat Rep. John Yarmuth Won't Seek Reelection Next Year

He is the chairman of the House Budget Committee and the Only Democratic Rep from the state