Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Tennessee

Tennessee has a history of distinguishing itself from its southern neighbors. It resisted secession and the Civil War, was first to break the "Solid South" electoral block, and was home to the first southern city to desegregate.  This independent streak goes back to Tennessee's earliest days before it was a state. 

Statehood and Early Presidential Politics

Former South Bend Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg will suspend his campaign Sunday night.  Buttigieg earned delegates in the first three Democratic contests, but saw limited support from Latinos in Nevada, finishing third overall. In South Carolina, he finished fourth, receiving only 3% support from blacks, who make up a majority of the electorate there. 

The move comes two days before Super Tuesday and will free up his supporters to vote for other moderate candidates. During last week's debate, Buttigieg had said that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was too radical to beat President Trump.

This Tuesday, Democrats in 14 states will go to the polls.  Collectively, they will award over one-third of all 3,979 pledged delegates available this year.  Here are the latest polling averages in each of those states, as of late Sunday morning, March 1.  

For polling detail, click or tap the image below and select a state on the linked page.

The final Democratic primary before Super Tuesday will see South Carolina voters cast their ballots.  Live results and projected delegate allocations will be available here after the 7:00 PM Eastern poll closing time.

Most presidential election forecasts at this point - and thus the consensus electoral map - are based on a generic Democratic nominee against President Trump.  That means the forecasts are largely driven by history, with some consideration given to the incumbent's popularity and the state of the economy. It is also why there aren't that many forecasts yet and why those that have been released have not shifted very much.  

All of that will begin to change once we know who the Democratic nominee will be, as each has strengths and weaknesses that will impact their likelihood of prevailing in the battleground states. 

To that end, Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with a hypothetical preview of how its Electoral College ratings might shift if Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders becomes the presumptive nominee. They see the southern states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas being less attainable Democratic pickups in 2020. These 98 electoral votes could shift from Leans to Likely Republican. Virginia is seen as moving from Likely to Leans Democratic. Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd District - could move from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham said Wednesday that he will not seek reelection in 2020.  In his announcement, Abraham cited a commitment he made as a candidate in 2014 to only serve three terms in Congress.  The decision also comes after an unsuccessful run for governor in 2019.

Today, I am officially announcing my retirement from Congress following the completion of my current third term. I am forever grateful to the people of Louisiana for entrusting me with their representation in the US House of Representatives. pic.twitter.com/qbsx3yJrTx

— Rep. Ralph Abraham (@RepAbraham) February 26, 2020

Abraham represents Louisiana's fifth congressional district, its largest one by area. It covers much of the northeastern part of the state, including the entire border with Mississippi. It is a safely Republican district; Abraham won his 2018 election by 37%, while Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly 30%.

37 current members of the House have announced they are retiring or seeking another office in 2020.

As the vote count in Nevada nears completion, it looks like Bernie Sanders will win 24 of the state's 36 pledged delegates. Joe Biden will add nine to his total, with Pete Buttigieg earning three. Sanders takes the lead in delegates with 45.

In the interest of transparency, several vote counts were released by the Nevada Democratic Party.  The delegate allocation above is based on the number of county convention delegates earned.  However, it is not a direct relationship.  As in other states, Nevada's delegates to the national convention are divided up by geography.  In this case, 13 delegates were based on the statewide vote, with the other 23 split across the state's four congressional districts.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts has raised some of our most famous and powerful political figures. John Adams, Daniel Webster, Calvin Coolidge, John F. Kennedy and George H.W. Bush - to name just a few - all have roots in this small, New England commonwealth. In recent presidential elections Massachusetts has been one of the most Democratic states in the nation. It was the only one to vote for Democrat George McGovern in the Republican landslide of 1972.

It wasn’t always this way. In fact, Massachusetts wouldn’t vote for the Democratic Party until 1912, nearly a century after the party’s creation. Looking back at the state’s history helps to explain its flip from reliably Republican to staunchly Democratic.

Bernie Sanders was the clear winner in Saturday's Nevada Democratic caucuses. However, not all the results have been counted, and the Buttigieg campaign is questioning irregularities in the vote.  

The estimated delegate allocation for Nevada is below, as well as the total to date. You can also see the results for County Convention Delegates, which is the count that translates into national delegates. As of this writing, a majority of delegates remain to be allocated; the tables below will update as more information becomes available.

For more on the process, see our overview of the Nevada caucuses.

The Nevada Democratic Party holds its caucuses Saturday.  This was preceded, for the first time, by an early voting period that saw nearly as much voter participation as the entire caucus count in 2016. 

Saturday's caucuses begin at noon local time (3:00 PM ET).  Results will follow - at some point.  The Party plans to have results out today, and hopes to avoid the issues that caused extensive delays in Iowa.  However, this is structurally a similar event, so we'll have to see how it plays out. For its part, the State wants to make clear that it's not on them if there are problems.

As in Iowa, there will be three sets of numbers released. Live results will appear below. 

Round One - First Alignment:  This will be the initial preference of caucusgoers across the state. The percentage results here should be somewhat consistent with the statewide polling that has preceded the caucus (if that proves accurate - there hasn't been a lot of polling here). In the final average, Bernie Sanders had a sizable lead at 30% support, with Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren in the mid-teens.