Election News

Mississippi GOP Gubernatorial Runoff: Overview and Results

There's a Republican gubernatorial primary runoff Tuesday in Mississippi. Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and former Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. are on the ballot. The winner will face the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Jim Hood in November. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM Central Time (8:00 PM Eastern).  Results will appear below after that time.

Reeves was the most well-known and financed candidate heading into the August 6 three-way primary. He received the endorsement of the current governor, Phil Bryant, who is ineligible to run due to the state's two-term limit.

While he won the night, Reeves fell just short of a majority of the vote, necessitating Tuesday's top-two runoff.  The third place finisher, state Rep. Robert Foster has endorsed Waller.

Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin to Resign from Congress Next Month

Rep. Sean Duffy will resign from Congress effective September 23. He made the announcement in a Facebook posting Monday morning, citing family issues. The five-term Republican represents Wisconsin's 7th congressional district. It is the state's largest district by area, covering much of the northern half of the state.

Duffy was preceded in Congress by Democrat Dave Obey, who served over 40 years before retiring in 2010. Duffy won that year by 8 points over Democrat Julie Lassa. The district was made more Republican in 2011 post-Census redistricting, leading to fairly easy reelection races for the incumbent. He won his final term by about 22% in 2018, about the same winning margin as President Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.  

Wisconsin's Democratic Gov. Tony Evers will call a special election to fill the upcoming vacancy. 

Former Rep. Joe Walsh to Challenge Donald Trump in GOP Primary

Former Rep. Joe Walsh announced Sunday that he is running for president.  A Tea Party Republican, Walsh served one term in the House, winning the Illinois 8th district in 2010. The district became more favorable to Democrats after 2011 redistricting and Walsh lost to Tammy Duckworth in 2012. After leaving Congress, Walsh became a conservative talk radio personality.

Walsh is hoping a challenge from the right will appeal to both conservatives and the 'Never Trump' movement. However, he brings his own baggage to the race, which might make it difficult for him to credibly make the case to those looking for an alternativ. He has espoused birtherism and anti-Muslim rhetoric, as well as hate for his political opponents. He did express regret for those statements in a recent New York Times op-ed.

Walsh joins former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld in the primary; both face exceptionally steep odds in their quest for the GOP nomination. For his part, Weld said he welcomes others, telling Chuck Todd on Meet the Press that "we need to assemble rational people".

Rep. Seth Moulton Drops Presidential Bid; Will Run for 4th Term in Congress

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton ended his campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination on Friday.  He becomes the 3rd candidate to drop out of the race in the past eight days, following Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper.  None of these candidates were able to break through in a very crowded Democratic field.

Moulton will run for a 4th term in Congress. While the district is safely Democratic, his presidential ambitions have opened the door to at least two primary challengers in 2020.

 

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee Exits Presidential Race

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Wednesday that he was ending his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. He made the announcement on The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC.

Inslee's campaign was largely focused around the issue of climate change. However, he was unable to gain much traction in a crowded Democratic field and was not going to qualify for the upcoming September debate.

Inslee is in his 2nd term as governor of Washington. The state is in the minority in that it does not impose any term limits on its chief executive, allowing him to run again in 2020 if he so chooses. 

CNN Poll: Biden Gains; Castro Qualifies for Next Debate

Joe Biden is well out in front in a new national CNN poll. His 29% equals the combined total of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris are tied for fourth at 5%. These results are in line with the overall national polling averages for recent polls.

Comparing these results to the prior CNN poll - taken just after the first debate - shows that the bump Harris received from her performance has evaporated, with Biden regaining much of the share he lost. The support for Warren and Sanders is essentially unchanged.

September Debate

The CNN poll brought good news for Julian Castro, making him the 10th qualifier for the next Democratic debate. That will be held September 12th and 13th in Houston, broadcast by ABC and Univision.

To make the September stage, candidates must get at least 2% in four qualifying polls and have received a donation from a minimum of 130,000 unique donors. The deadline for qualifying is August 28, with a couple additions still possible. Tom Steyer is one poll short, while Tulsi Gabbard needs two more. Both have met the fundraising requirement.  No other candidate seems likely to make the cut.

Rep. Lujan, Number 4 House Democrat, Comes Out in Support of Impeachment Inquiry

New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Luján announced his support for an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. Luján, who is the Assistant Speaker and a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, becomes the highest-ranking Democrat to back impeachment thus far. He becomes the 125th member to support an inquiry. Click the map for a full list.

John Hickenlooper Drops Presidential Bid

John Hickenlooper announced Thursday that he is ending his campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination. The former Colorado governor had struggled to gain traction in a very crowded field.

Hickenlooper may pivot to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in 2020. He only briefly addressed that in today's announcement video, saying he would give the idea "some serious thought". The Colorado seat represents one of the better Democratic pick-up opportunities in the 2020 Senate election. A recent poll showed him with a 13 point lead over Gardner.

23 Democrats remain in the race for the party's nomination.

Democrats Not Currently Supporting an Impeachment Inquiry Against President Trump

Rep. Debra Haaland (NM-1) today became the 121st Democrat in the House to support an impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump.  114 members do not currently support that action.  Here's a map tracking those with the 2020 consensus rating for each district. Click or tap the map for more info, including the full list.

As might be expected, a significantly larger number of Democrats from swing districts are on this list, including 30 of the 31 districts that voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. 43 of the 114 Democrats are from seats seen as at least somewhat competitive next year.   Also on the list are most of the top leadership in the House, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

None of the 197 Republicans in the House have come out in favor of an impeachment inquiry.  Rep. Justin Amash (MI-03) was a member of the GOP when he made his support known; he has since become an independent.

Democratic Delegate Map Updated with Bonus Delegates

The Democratic Party awards bonus delegates as a reward to locations that wait until later in the calendar to hold their primary or caucus. With the 2020 election calendar mostly set, a pretty good estimate of those bonus delegates can be calculated. 

The following remains subject to change should any calendar dates change. 

24 locations (21 states, DC, Guam and Virgin Islands) will receive a total of 211 bonus delegates for holding their 2020 nominating contest after March 31.  These are pledged delegates, bringing that total to 3,979. As such, the 'magic number' for winning on the first ballot is increased from 1,885 to 1,990. The total number of delegates, including 766 automatic delegates^, is now 4,745.

From an overall calendar perspective, this slightly reduces the proportion of pledged delegates available before April.  The pre-bonus estimated distribution:

There are two types of bonus delegates: Calendar and Cluster. The calendar bonus is 10% for locations holding their contest in April; 20% for those in May and June. The cluster bonus is an additional 15%, and is basically for holding a nominating contest on the same date as adjacent locations. In 2020, the only cluster bonus will be for six east coast states that have scheduled their primaries on April 28.

April (10% calendar bonus):  Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Wyoming

April (25% calendar + cluster bonus):  Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York*, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May/June (20% calendar bonus): District of Columbia, Guam, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Oregon, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Virgin Islands, West Virginia

Note that the bonus is calculated off base delegates, which are approximately 85% of pledged delegates.

The Party's official term.  More commonly known as superdelegates.  With the addition of the bonus delegates, the proportion of automatic to total delegates is slightly reduced.

* Although likely to be April 28, New York's date remains tentative. As the largest recipient of bonus delegates (49), a change here would have a noticeable impact on the total bonus delegates.