Election News

California's independent redistricting commission approved a new congressional map earlier this week. While the map is not yet certified, it is all but certain to be in the near future. For the first time since statehood, California is losing a congressional district. It will have 52 for the next decade, still by far the most in the nation.

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D, CA-40) announced her retirement late Monday. She becomes the third Los Angeles area Democratic House member to announce they aren't running for reelection. Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) is retiring, while Karen Bass (CA-37) is running for mayor of Los Angeles. 

Roybal-Allard, 80 years old, won her 15th and final term by 45 points in 2020. 

Serving my constituents in Congress has been the single most distinguished honor of my life.

Over my many years of public service, I have always strived to do that which is best to help improve my community and my country. 1/3

— Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (@RepRoybalAllard) December 21, 2021

Her decision may have partially been driven by redistricting that is currently underway. For the first time in its history, California is losing a congressional district. In the approved final proposal from the independent commission, Roybal-Allard and Lowenthal would have been essentially merged together into the new 42nd district. Their joint departure creates a much easier path for Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia (D) to win a House seat in the 2022 midterms. Garcia announced his congressional run after Lowenthal's retirement announcement last week.

Retirement Map

23 Democrats and 13 Republicans are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Click/tap the map for a detailed list.

Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy (FL-7) and Albio Sires (NJ-8) will not seek reelection next year. This brings to 22 the number of current House Democrats retiring or seeking another office. 11 Republicans have made that decision.

Five-term California Rep. Alan Lowenthal announced Thursday that he won't run for reelection next year. He becomes the 20th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022.

The 2021 election calendar wraps up Tuesday with two general and two primary state legislative special elections. While all four of the states have completed legislative redistricting, these elections will be contested under the existing boundaries.

Special General Elections

Connecticut State House District 116

The 151 member Connecticut House of Representatives is comprised of 95 Democrats and 54 Republicans. Members serve two-year terms. The next scheduled elections are in in 2022. These will be conducted using redistricted boundaries.

There are vacancies in Districts 116 and 144. The special election for Stamford-area District 144 will take place on January 25.

The 2022 House Interactive Map is now available. Use it to create and share your own 2022 election forecast.

The interactive map will be updated as states complete the redistricting process and we are able to upload the new district shapes. In some cases, (e.g., Arkansas and Georgia at the moment), new district shapes may be added before they become law if they are all but certain to be enacted (e.g., just waiting on the governor's signature). 

Current House members are assigned to new districts as appropriate. In some cases, redistricting will force two incumbents seeking reelection into the same district. If they are of the same party (e.g., WV-2), the survivor will be determined in the party primary. Alternately, if there is one representative from each party (e.g., NC-11), and both win their respective primaries, they will meet in the general election.

At 400 members, the New Hampshire House is the largest in the country. There are currently 206 Republicans and 188 Democrats. 6 seats are vacant. Members serve two-year terms; the next scheduled elections are in 2022.

With 10 seats, Rockingham 6 is one of the state's largest multi-member districts. All nine incumbents are Republican. The vacancy in the remaining seat occurred in August when Republican Anne Copp resigned.

Jodi Nelson easily won the Republican primary on October 19, getting 78% of the vote in a three-person field. The Democratic nominee is Mary Eisner, who was unopposed. Eisner previously served one term in the House after being elected in 2018. In 2020, she finished first among 10 Democrats on the ballot, but 11th overall, denying her reelection.

Republican Rep. Devin Nunes announced Monday that he will resign from Congress in the coming weeks. He has been hired as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch a new social media platform called TRUTH Social.

Nunes represents California's 22nd district, situated in the San Joaquin Valley. He did not fare well in the first draft of maps released by California's bipartisan redistricting committee last month. If those boundaries were to hold, CA-22 would shift from a district Trump carried by 5% to one Biden carried by 9%. Overall, the state is losing a congressional district in Census apportionment for the first time ever.

Politico reports that former Sen. David Perdue will enter the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial race, challenging Gov. Brian Kemp for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump has urged Perdue to get in the race. The former president has repeatedly slammed Kemp for refusing to overturn Joe Biden's Georgia win in the 2020 presidential election. 

At one September rally, Trump even suggested 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams would be better for the state than Kemp. There's a chance that could play out - Abrams entered the race last week and will almost certainly be the party's nominee again next year.

Citing a sour political environment for Democrats, Cook Political on Friday shifted eight gubernatorial races toward the GOP.  A ninth race was rerated in favor of Democrats. After two other changes earlier in the week, the forecaster has now updated its outlook on 11 of the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022.

Jessica Taylor's analysis at Cook Political >> ($)

Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin were moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Of these races, Cook cited Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) as "probably the most endangered".