Election News

U.S. Senate

Republicans started the night with 51 seats and they'll have at least that many heading into 2019. Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly (Indiana), Claire McCaskill (Missouri) and Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota) went down to defeat. Democrats picked up Nevada.

On the map below, Florida is awarded to Republican Rick Scott, while California is not yet called. These are calls (or non-calls) made by our results partner, Decision Desk. Scott is ahead, but there remains the possibility of a recount. In California, there are two Democrats on the ballot. While a nominee call has not been made, Democrats will retain that seat.  On our interactive Senate map of actual results, we've awarded California, while keeping Florida undecided. 

The other two uncalled races are Arizona and the special election in Mississippi. In Arizona, Rep. Martha McSally (R) has a lead of just under 1% with over 99% of the vote in. Meanwhile, as expected, Mississippi's race is headed to a November 27th runoff.

Governor

Democrats have won six Republican-held seats, significantly cutting into the latter’s 33-16 edge heading into Election Day. Connecticut and Georgia remain undecided, although the Associated Press has called it for Democrat Ned Lamont. We show that on our interactive Governor map of actual results.

In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp has 50.6% of the vote, a lead of about 2 points. The question at this point is not whether Kemp will finish with more votes than Democrat Stacey Abrams, but rather whether Kemp will finish above the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff on December 4^th.

Florida (all but the panhandle)

Georgia

Indiana (remainder of state)

Kentucky (remainder of state)

South Carolina

Virginia

Vermont

Note that there's a lot of local variation in closing times. Your polling place may close earlier. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.

The first congressional districts close at 6:00 PM in Kentucky and Indiana. There are three districts to keep an eye on in this first hour. Kentucky's 6th district is a true toss-up race in a district Trump won by 15 points in 2016. Democrats have a high quality nominee in retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath; she has outraised the three-term incumbent Andy Barr. 

Meanwhile, in neighboring Indiana, keep an eye on the 2nd and 9th districts. If Republicans struggle or lose either of these, the party could be in for a long night.

A few notes:

• All the 'safe' seats still seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability. 
• The momentum of Michigan GOP nominee John James seems to have stalled. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has led by 9% or more in the three most recent polls. James did have one of the more amusing tweets this past week, however. 
• As a result, Michigan joins the other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) as looking pretty safe for the incumbents.  All are now in that FiveThirtyEight category, with a Democratic probability above 95%.
• The biggest discrepancy between FiveThirtyEight and the consensus seems to be in Montana, where FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Jon Tester an 87.6% chance of being re-elected.
• In Nevada, Jacky Rosen has led in the three most recent polls, putting her just slightly ahead of Sen Dean Heller in the average.

A few notes:

• All the 'safe' seats seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability. 
• New Mexico polling percentages impacted by Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polled at 22% in a recent survey
• The last couple polls in 'likely Democratic' Michigan have been somewhat closer than the polling average and ratings would indicate. May just be a blip, but will be interesting to see if that trend persists in any subsequent polling
• The other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) seem more 'safe' than not for the Democratic incumbents as Election Day nears.
• The Cook Political Report reclassified New Jersey as a 'toss-up' this past week. The other qualitative forecasters have it as likely Democratic' and FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Menendez a 91% chance of being re-elected. 
• The biggest discrepancy between polling and the 'pros' seems to be in North Dakota where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is trailing by double-digits in recent polls.
• Indiana is tied based on the five polls out this month. However, the most recent two polls, including one out today, give Republican challenger Mike Braun a small lead. 

52% of those polled had an unfavorable view of Heitkamp, a large increase from 41% who felt that way three weeks ago. According to the pollster: "“Senator Heitkamp appears to have been hurt by her vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court as well as by subsequent campaign missteps widely covered in the media.” 

Impact on Senate Control

Heitkamp's fading prospects for a 2nd term will make it that much more difficult for Democrats to retake control of the Senate. If she loses, her party must win 3 GOP-held seats from a list that includes Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee and Mississippi (special election). That's assuming they win their other 25 seats up this year - which will be no easy task.

Heading into the elections, Republicans hold 33 of the 50 governorships, near an all-time high. 16 are held by Democrats, with an independent in Alaska. As with other forecasters, the FiveThirtyEight model sees a drop in seats held by the GOP. Their model stands out a bit in the small number of toss-up races - three as of this writing vs. eight on the consensus map. 

While there's no overall "battle for control" with gubernatorial races, many of the governors elected this year will have an important role in determining the composition of the U.S. House in the next decade. These governors will still be in office when redistricting comes around after the 2020 Census.

Related: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

A loss in any of the 28 seats above obviously means Democrats need to pick one up elsewhere. The only three realistic options are Tennessee, Texas and the Mississippi special election.  The other four Republican-held seats are not competitive. 

At this point, North Dakota looks to be the most at-risk seat for Democrats. Recent polling there has turned in favor of Republican Kevin Cramer. Polling has also looked better for the GOP in Texas and Tennessee; these are both now rated Likely Republican in the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast.

Totally Unopposed: There are 16 incumbents that have the ballot all to themselves. One of them, Michael Doyle (PA-18) is running unopposed in a district partially modified in redistricting. A 17th seat on this list is currently held Michael Capuano (MA-7), who was defeated by Ayanna Pressley in his bid for renomination. 

Same Party Opposition: California and Washington hold top-two primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot. The two largest vote-getters advance to the general election. In five districts, the two moving on are both from the same party. In 2016, Nanette Barragan won her first term vs. a fellow Democrat; this explains the narrow margin of victory in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 71%.

3rd Party Opposition: These 20 incumbents have one or more opponents on the ballot - all are 3rd party or independent candidates. None are expected to pose a major challenge. 

In the above tables, the 2016 margin of victory for both the House race and the presidential election (within that congressional district) is displayed. As you might expect, given the lack of competition, these districts lean heavily toward one party. An asterisk indicates the incumbent was unopposed. 

More than 130,000 simulations have been run since we launched this back on September 22nd. Below the map, you can view the results of the most recent 5,000. Currently, Democrats are winning just over 75% of the time. Individual simulation results will vary widely, as there remains a wide distribution of plausible outcomes.