Election News

Last in, First Out? Gabbard Threatens Debate Boycott

October 10, 2019

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii is considering a boycott of next Tuesday's Democratic debate. In a video posted to her Facebook page, she says that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the media are trying to rig the 2020 nominating process. She says it is a repeat of 2016, when these same parties favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.

After not qualifying for the September debate, Gabbard was the 12th and final Democrat to meet the criteria for October. She is polling at just under 1% nationally.  While this threat will gain her some publicity, it is hard to see how an actual boycott will help her candidacy.

Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey of New York Will Not Seek Reelection in 2020

October 10, 2019

Long-time Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey (NY-17) announced Thursday that she will not seek reelection in 2020. Lowey, 82, is in her 16th term and is the first woman to chair the powerful House Appropriations Committee.

Her affluent 17th congressional district covers is just north of New York City, covering all of Rockland and parts of Westchester County. Hillary Clinton won here* by about 20 points over Donald Trump in 2016. While not as overwhelmingly blue as most NYC-area districts, the seat is considered safely Democratic in 2020.

Lowey is the 23rd current House member to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. Two of the six Democrats on the list (Lowey and Jose Serrano) are from New York. The retirement map^ has been updated.  

* The Clinton's Chappaqua home is in the 17th district. There has been speculation in the past that Chelsea Clinton would run for the seat when Lowey retired. That talk will likely pick up again until she makes an announcement one way or the other.

^ This link will take you to the retirement map in the redesigned version of 270toWin.  For those that haven't tried it yet, we'd welcome feedback. There are links at the top of most pages to take you back to the 'old' design if you so choose.

November Democratic Debate to be Held in Georgia; 8 Have Qualified

October 8, 2019

MSNBC and the Washington Post will co-host the fifth Democratic debate.  It will take place on November 20, somewhere in Georgia. 

This means candidates will have until the end of the day on November 13 to qualify. Eight candidates have so far met the tougher requirements for this debate, including Andrew Yang, who made the cut by virtue of a Quinnipiac poll released earlier Tuesday.

 

12 Qualify for October Debate; Most Crowded Presidential Stage Ever

October 2, 2019

The Democratic National Committee announced that 12 candidates have qualified for the next debate, scheduled for October 15 in Ohio. All 12 will take part in a single night, making it the most crowded presidential debate stage in history.  The debate will be moderated by CNN and The New York Times.

Since the September debate, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer have met the minimum requirements of 2% in four qualifying polls and 130,000 unique donors.

The fifth Democratic debate will take place in November, date and location TBA. As previously noted, the DNC is raising the bar to winnow the field.  The 2% polling threshold will go to 3%, while the unique donor requirement goes to 165,000. There is also a new, alternative polling qualifier: 5% or more in two polls from among the four early states.  Five candidates have qualified to this point: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. 

GOP Rep. Chris Collins Resigns; Expected to Plead Guilty to Insider Trading

September 30, 2019

Republican Rep. Chris Collins has resigned from Congress.  He was indicted last summer on insider trading and is expected to plead guilty to those charges this week.

The Western New York 27th district is quite conservative. Despite the legal issues, Collins narrowly won a 4th term last November.  Looking back to 2016, Collins won by 34%, while Donald Trump prevailed by 25% over Hillary Clinton. While the retirement of an incumbent often makes House races more competitive, this vacancy will have the opposite effect. Republicans will be heavily favored to win the special election (date TBA) and hold the seat in 2020.

There are now two vacancies in Congress; Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin resigned last week.  The U.S. House currently has 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, with one independent.

Rep. Mac Thornberry Not Running in 2020; 6th Texas GOP Departure this Cycle

September 30, 2019

Long-time GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry announced Monday he will not seek reelection in 2020.  He represents the 13th congressional district of Texas; the most Republican district in the country per The Cook Political Report. Thornberry won a 13th term by nearly 65% in 2018 while Donald Trump won by 63% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Thornberry is the 22nd current member of the House to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. The list includes 17 Republicans, of which 6 are from Texas.

First Look: A Redesigned 270toWin

September 26, 2019

We're refreshing our layout for the 2020 election cycle.  This includes making the site much more responsive to different display sizes.

Try it out at https://www.270towin.com/redesign. There are a few issues to work out, and some pages still to convert, but almost everything should work as it does on the 'old' layout.

Feedback welcome. If you have an issue getting to the redesign, please enable Cookies on your web browser.

 

 

 

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard Qualifies for October Democratic Debate

September 24, 2019

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii has qualified for the October Democratic debate.  She received 2% support in a Monmouth University New Hampshire survey released Tuesday, giving her the required minimum of four from DNC-approved pollsters. Gabbard had previously met the fundraising requirement of at least 130,000 unique donors.

Gabbard becomes the 12th - and likely final - candidate to make the stage for the October 15 debate. With this many qualifiers, the debate may be split across two nights, although that determination has not yet been made by the DNC.  

Special Election Date Set for Wisconsin 7th District

September 23, 2019

Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has set January 27, 2020 as the date for a special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 7th congressional district. The seat became vacant when GOP Rep. Sean Duffy resigned, effective September 23.

The U.S. House now has 235 Democrats, 198 Republicans and 1 independent, in addition to the aforementioned vacancy.

 

DNC Sets Tighter Rules for November Debate Qualification

September 23, 2019

The Democratic National Committee is raising the bar for candidates to qualify for the fifth candidate debate, to be held in November. These criteria only apply to this one debate.

Polling: 3% in four different qualifying polls (can be a combination of national polls or those from among the four early states) OR 5% in two polls from among the four early states. The 5% option is new; the threshold in the the four-poll rule is increasing from the 2% in place for the September and October debates. 

The early states are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, which are all scheduled to hold their primary or caucus in February, 2020. Polls must be released from September 13 through seven calendar days prior to the November debate (date is TBA). For more detailed rules on what polls qualify, see the DNC press release.

The threshold for the upcoming October debate is 2% in four different qualifying polls.

Fundraising: Contributions from at least 165,000 unique donors, including a minimum of 600 per state in at least 20 states. The September/October requirements are 130,000 nationally and 400 in 20 states.