Election News

Citing a sour political environment for Democrats, Cook Political on Friday shifted eight gubernatorial races toward the GOP.  A ninth race was rerated in favor of Democrats. After two other changes earlier in the week, the forecaster has now updated its outlook on 11 of the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022.

Jessica Taylor's analysis at Cook Political >> ($)

Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin were moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Of these races, Cook cited Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) as "probably the most endangered".

Democrat Stacey Abrams announced Wednesday that she is running for Georgia governor, setting up a possible rematch with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who narrowly defeated her in 2018. 

I’m running for Governor because opportunity in our state shouldn’t be determined by zip code, background or access to power. #gapol

Be a founding donor to my campaign:https://t.co/gk2lmBINfW pic.twitter.com/z14wUlo8ls

— Stacey Abrams (@staceyabrams) December 1, 2021

Kemp defeated Abrams by 1.4% in 2018. It was the third closest gubernatorial race that year. 

Abrams' entry into the race has long been expected. She should have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination. Kemp, on the other hand, has alienated Donald Trump for refusing to help overturn Joe Biden's victory in Georgia last November. Former Sen. David Perdue is considering a primary challenge that would likely come with an endorsement from the former president.

If Abrams were to win next November, she would become the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history.

Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio has become the 19th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Now in his 18th term, DeFazio is the longest-serving House member from Oregon.

With humility and gratitude I am announcing that I will not seek re-election next year. Read my full statement here: https://t.co/r690H0vRgu pic.twitter.com/btuTMrBHvL

— Rep Peter DeFazio (@RepPeterDeFazio) December 1, 2021

DeFazio was reelected by about 5% in 2020. It was the closest race of his entire House career. The only other time he won by less than double digits was when first elected in 1986. That year, he won by 8%.

While the seat is back in play for 2022, the Democrat that attempts to succeed DeFazio will have the benefit of a more favorable district. According to FiveThirtyEight, the partisan lean of the 4th district moved from R+1 to D+9 in the state's recently completed redistricting.

2022 House Retirements

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a popular Republican governor in a deep blue state, said Wednesday that he will not seek a third term in 2022. 

?@MassGovernor? is NOT running for a third term. Here’s the letter to supporters that just went out. #wcvb pic.twitter.com/Qql3yQQ1O4

— Karen Anderson (@karenreports) December 1, 2021

More popular with Democrats and Independents than his own party, Baker was facing a primary challenge from the right by Donald Trump-endorsed former state Rep. Geoff Diehl.

Democrats in the race already include State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former State Sen. Ben Downing. Popular Attorney General Martha Healey, a moderate, has considered running. That candidacy may now be more likely given the incumbent's departure.

The race was seen as Likely Republican with Baker running; we expect forecasters to dramatically shift those ratings towards Democrats in the days ahead. Thus far, Cook Political has moved its rating from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic.

Atlanta Mayor

No candidate received a majority of the vote in the November 3 election, necessitating Tuesday's top two runoff. As expected, City Council President Felicia Moore finished first. She received 41% of the votes across the 14-person field. 

In a bit of a surprise, City Councilman Andre Dickens edged out former two-term mayor Kasim Reed by 600 votes to claim the second spot. Dickens received 23% of the overall vote. Dickens has been endorsed by outgoing mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

The runoff looks competitive. There have been two polls, which offset each other. A University of Georgia survey showed Dickens with a six-point lead over Moore, while a SurveyUSA poll found just the opposite. Both polls had a significant number of undecided voters.

Rep. Tom Suozzi (NY-3) has entered the 2022 race for governor of New York. He made his announcement Monday morning.

This will be Suozzi's 2nd run for governor. In 2006, he lost the Democratic Primary to Eliot Spitzer by 82% to 18%. 

Rep. Louie Gohmert is giving up his safe seat in Congress to run for Texas Attorney General. Gohmert joins a crowded field looking to unseat incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. His entry comes relatively late, as Texas kicks off the 2022 election calendar with primaries on March 1.

Gohmert is a strong supporter of former President Donald Trump. However, Trump is already spoken for in this election. He endorsed Paxton for a third term last summer, choosing to back the incumbent over Land Commissioner George P. Bush. 

There are 52 seats in the Mississippi State Senate. The chamber is overwhelmingly Republican; that party holds 36 seats, Democrats 15.

District 32 includes much of Meridian and points north. It reaches the Alabama border to the east. It has been vacant since Democrat Sampson Jackson retired June 30, less than two years through the current four-year term.  He had been in the Senate since 1992.

Nine candidates, including Jackson's son Keith, met in a nonpartisan special election on November 2. Keith Jackson finished third with 13%. No candidate received a majority of the vote, necessitating a runoff.

Democratic Rep. Peter Welch, Vermont's at-large U.S. House representative since 2007, is seeking a promotion. On Monday, he announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by the retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D).

I'm running for the United States Senate to work for you, for Vermont, for our country, and for our imperiled democracy.

Join us: https://t.co/ReVLvWEM4T pic.twitter.com/lGKX7ZJJgP

— Rep. Peter Welch (@WelchForVT) November 22, 2021

Welch was elected in 2006, after then Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) retired to run for the Senate seat he now holds. In a bit of historical alignment, Sanders served eight terms in the House and replaced a retiring Senator, Jim Jeffords (R). Welch is now completing his 8th term, and starts out as a strong favorite to replace the retiring Leahy.

Sanders endorsed Welch shortly after he officially entered the race. 

Vermont is the only state that has never sent a woman to Congress. Several have publicly expressed interest in the House seat, pending Welch's decision.

Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson won't seek reelection in 2022. Johnson, who will be 86 in early December, had said in 2019 that she was planning to serve one more term. However, until Saturday, no official retirement announcement had been made.  According to the Dallas Morning News, "Johnson said people had been urging her to run for another term in Congress and she went back and forth about the decision but eventually decided to retire."

Johnson represents the safely Democratic 30th district, which includes much of the city of Dallas, and nearby areas to the south. She won her 15th and final term by 59% in 2020; Joe Biden carried the district by 61 points. Congressional redistricting in Texas has changed the current district boundaries (shown below) only slightly for 2022.