Election News

The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner in New Hampshire, bringing her total to 232 electoral votes. President-elect Donald Trump has 290 electoral votes, with Michigan still not called.

As of late Monday, Trump led Michigan by 0.3%. That's about 12,000 votes out of 4.8 million cast in the state. We believe the AP is waiting to declare a winner in Michigan pending the possibility of a recount.

Trump is likely to win the state, which would bring his final total to 306, pending the official vote of Electors on December 19th. To that end, we show Michigan in a lighter red in our election results map:

Thank you for visiting 270toWin this election week. We had some intermittent site performance issues overnight Tuesday as a result of unprecedented levels of traffic. While we planned for the spike, there were still some impacts on both the user experience and our ability to keep the site updated on election night. We apologize for any inconvenience.

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Defying almost all predictions, Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States on Tuesday. Trump, who has never held political office, expanded the electoral map into states Republicans have not won for a generation or more. 

Donald Trump won Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning, bringing his total to 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the 270 needed to win the presidential election.

Here's the electoral map as of about 1:00AM Eastern Time

If you'd like a summary of what to watch for tonight, see this excellent hour-by-hour election guide.

Here's where we'll be updating results on 270toWin tonight:

President: As states are called, they'll appear in the table in the bottom half of the page.  The electoral vote count will change, along with an updated probability of victory for Clinton and Trump and other stats. The electoral map on the top half of the page will also fill in.

In our final look at the electoral projections, there remains quite a bit of variability in opinion across the experts we've been following. Aside from CNN, all have Clinton across 270 electoral votes, although most have her well short of that total when totaling the states that are the most secure (safe + likely ratings). Most of the forecasts have Clinton leading in states with either 274 or 322 electoral votes.  The main difference seems to be expectations for Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire: some have those lean Clinton, others still see them as toss-ups. 

You can review the forecasts, and associated maps on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

The final projection from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is a Clinton victory with 322 electoral votes vs. 216 for Donald Trump. This is an increase of 29 over their prior forecast - as Florida moved to lean Clinton from toss-up. At the same time, however, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire were moved to the lean category from likely. As a result, Clinton's favored total (safe + likely) has dropped below 270. Texas was returned to safe Republican.

The accompanying Senate forecast projects a 50-50 tie in that body. If the prediction for a Clinton presidency is correct, that would give Democrats control of the Senate in January. In the House, Democrats are projected to gain 13 seats, well short of the 30 the party would need to gain control.

The NBC Political Unit's final battleground map projects Hillary Clinton at 274 electoral votes, four more than the 270 required to be elected president. Their forecast is little changed from the prior week. Utah was moved from toss-up to lean Trump and Georgia from lean Trump back to toss-up. Recent polling supports these changes. McMullin's momentum seems to have slowed in Utah, while the latest Georgia poll conducted for NBC showed just a one-point Trump lead.

We've updated our poll closing times page for 2016. This is not meant to be a guide for when any specific polling place is open, but rather to indicate the expected latest closing times for each state. This is important in that it should be the earliest time that the AP and/or broadcast networks will announce the winner of that state's electoral votes.  Other statewide contests, such as Senator and governor, if applicable, should also hold to these timeframes.  We'll be updating an electoral map on Tuesday night. In addition, we'll have Congressional pages, that include a map and a table that will let you track who is going to control the House and Senate in the 115th Congress. Links to follow on these.

Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has continued to decrease since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 31st. One theme in recent days is forecasters moving some states that had previously been considered toss-ups into the leaning Trump category. Most notable are Ohio and Iowa, states that voted twice for Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton now averages 288 electoral votes, down about five from the 31st. Donald Trump is at 193, a gain of ten. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.