November 3, 2016
Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has continued to decrease since our last review of electoral forecasts on October 31st. One theme in recent days is forecasters moving some states that had previously been considered toss-ups into the leaning Trump category. Most notable are Ohio and Iowa, states that voted twice for Barack Obama.
Hillary Clinton now averages 288 electoral votes, down about five from the 31st. Donald Trump is at 193, a gain of ten. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.
Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.