Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial 2025-26 Gubernatorial Ratings

The forecast team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their initial governor forecast for the 2025-2026 cycle. New Jersey and Virginia will hold elections this year, with 36 states to follow coinciding with next year's midterm elections.

Incumbent governors and New Jersey and Virginia are termed-out. These open races start at Leans Democratic. In Virginia, this would represent a party flip, but one quite consistent with the state's modern voting history: "Since 1977, Virginia has elected a governor from the non-White House party, with the sole exception coming in 2013." 

The Virginia general election will feature Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-07). There hasn't been any recent polling, but several surveys in the first quarter had Spanberger with a modest lead.

In New Jersey, primaries on June 10 will determine the nominees. Both fields are crowded. 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli has been leading in limited independent polling. The Democratic race looks much tighter, with Sabato noting that Rep. Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) is a "tenuous favorite".

Turning to 2026, Arizona and Michigan start out as toss-up, with another six states in the Leans category. This includes Kansas, where a Lean Republican rating reflects the only projected party change. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

The forecast notes that at least 16 of next year's 36 elections will not feature an incumbent, perhaps opening the door for an upset or two in unexpected places. The full analysis for 2026 can be found here.  

The full ratings are on the map below. Click for an interactive version.