Election News

Mike Huckabee received about 2% of the vote, and suspended his campaign.

Democrats: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both received about half the vote in an exceptionally tight race. Clinton's campaign has claimed victory, but the race has not been called by the Associated Press as of this writing. Regardless of who ultimately wins, the delegate account is proportional here as well so it doesn't make much practical difference, beyond bragging rights. The exact delegate numbers are a little sketchy, but it looks like Sanders will have 21, with Clinton having between 23 and 29, depending on whether so-called 'super delegates' are included. Click or tap the above graphic to see the full Democratic results.

Martin O'Malley received less than 1% and also withdrew from the race.

Up next: New Hampshire primary on February 9. Trump has a huge lead in Republican polling, with Sanders also well ahead in the Democratic polls.

This Republican map, for example, is based on allocation methods, and shows how the 689 delegates up on Super Tuesday will be allocated.

Within the time dimension, there's also an option for 'Up Next', which will highlight the next date one or more contests are being held. It's not particularly exciting with only one, but here's the Democratic map using that filter:

Democrats: Polls have varied widely in this race, although many of the most recent ones have shown a slight lead for Hillary Clinton. It appears that turnout for the Sanders campaign will be crucial in determining whether the Vermont Senator can score an important early win. Either way, it is looking good for Sanders in next week's New Hampshire primary. A new poll out this AM has him up by 31 points over Clinton.

Seven members of each party are leaving to run for the U.S. Senate; a single Democrat is running for governor with another running for local office. The remaining six Democrats and 15 Republicans are retiring (or have not announced plans to run for another public office).

The full list of departures, as of February 1, follows:

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 45% to 42%. Both Clinton and Sanders made small gains over the last poll, with the net margin not changing much.

The poll is conducted by Selzer & Company, the best pollster in politics, and sponsored by the Des Moines Register.

As might be expected, the paper was not as glowing about the Republican field, finding businessman Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz "equally objectionable for different reasons." In a lesser-of-evils pick, the times gives the nod to Kasich: "...though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race."

Iowa Poll

The pre-caucus Des Moines Register Poll, conducted by the well-respected pollster Selzer & Company, will be released this evening at 6:45PM ET. This should be our final look at how Iowa is shaping up before the actual caucuses take place. Their last poll showed Ted Cruz with a three point lead over Donald Trump, down from ten points before Christmas.

More recent Iowa polls have shown Trump ahead, averaging a 6 point average lead over Cruz. Marco Rubio has been showing signs of strength as well, possibly helped by the Register's recent endorsement of him.

Trump leads by 7 in Iowa, the poll found. This is consistent with most recent polls, as is his much larger 19 point lead in New Hampshire. There's been less polling in South Carolina, although here too there's not much new with Trump's 16 point lead.

Marco Rubio has made nice gains in Iowa; this latest poll has him at 18%, his highest number there yet. The top 3 candidates in Iowa now have support from 75% of likely caucus goers. In New Hampshire, it continues to lok like a tight battle for 2nd, with Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich basically tied, with Bush and Christie within the margin of error. 

For the Democrats, the real battle seems to be for Iowa. Sanders has pulled well ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, while Clinton continues to dominate the polling in South Carolina.

 It will be interesting to see how the polls from New Hampshire and South Carolina change after Iowa has had its say.

Overall, Trump holds about a five point leader in the 270toWin Iowa average, with much higher volatility across pollsters, ranging from a two point lead for Cruz to an eleven point lead for Trump. Rubio has been consistent in the low teens, and looks likely to finish third.

Weather

Part of the reason the Iowa polls are so varied is that the caucus format is difficult for pollsters to model; much depends on which organization does the best job at getting its supporters to the caucus sessions.  One area that impacts turnout is the weather. At this point, the National Weather Service is showing pretty benign weather for next Monday. Des Moines shows mostly cloudy, with a high of 34, while the Cedar Rapids forecast is for a slight chance of snow with a high of 33. These highs are close to the average for early February.