Election News

Minnesota Primary Results

By 270toWin Staff - August 13, 2014

The Minnesota nominating primaries for the November election were held on August 12.

US Senate:    Democratic incumbent Al Franken fought off nominal opposition and will face businessman Mike McFadden in November.   McFadden, the Republican party's preferred choice,  easily defeated Jim Abeler.  Franken is favored for re-election, although the race is somewhat competitive.

Governor:   As expected, incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton was easily renominated.   The Republican primary was quite competitive, with four candidates earning over 20% of the vote.  State Representative Jeff Johnson emerged victorious here.   Governor Dayton is favored for re-election, with most polls to this point giving him a 10% or greater advantage.  

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.    Minnesota's Congressional delegation is currently comprised of 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.   All but Michele Bachmann (MN-06) are running for re-election, and all won renomination.   Two Democratic-held Districts (MN-07, MN-08) as well as one Republican District (MN-02) are expected to be competitive this November.    

To see the current roster of Minnesota elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.

Connecticut Primary Results

By 270toWin Staff - August 13, 2014

The Connecticut nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on Tuesday, August 12.   

Governor:   Incumbent Democratic Governor Dan Malloy ran uncontested and will face former Ambassador to Ireland Thomas Foley in November.   Foley defeated State Senator John McKinney to secure the Republican nomination.  While Connecticut is deep blue at the Federal level, this race is very competitive.   Polling shows the race to be tied and the professional pundits generally show the race to be a toss-up.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   There were no contested primaries; all incumbents will likely win re-election in November.  The only marginally competitive race this fall is in the 5th District, where incumbent Democrat Elizabeth Etsy is likely to defeat businesman Mark Greenberg.   

To see the current roster of Connecticut elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.

Wisconsin Primary Results

By 270toWin Staff - August 13, 2014

** UPDATE:  August 14 -   The AP has withdrawn its declaration of Glenn Grothman as winner in the 6th District.   Grothman leads by just 214 votes as of Thursday AM.   

The Wisconsin nominating primaries for the 2014 election were held on Tuesday, August 12.   There were no major surprises in the gubernatorial or House primaries.

Governor:   Governor Scott Walker ran uncontested and will face businesswoman Mary Burke in November. Although Walker is seen as a potential contender for the 2016 Republican nomination, getting re-elected is not going to be a cakewalk.   Polling shows the race to be tied and the professional pundits generally show the race to be a toss-up.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   The only marginally competitive race is in the 6th District, where incumbent Republican Thomas Petri is retiring.   State Senator Glenn Grothman narrowly defeated fellow Senateor Joe Leibham for the nomination.   On the Democratic side, Winnebago County Excecutive Mark Harris ran unopposed.    The District will likely stay in Republican hands.  All other incumbents are expected to win re-election in November.

To see the current roster of Wisconsin elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.

Hawaii Primary Results

By 270toWin Staff - August 11, 2014

The Hawaii primary was held on Saturday August 9   

US Senate:    The battle between incumbent Brian Schatz and Representative Colleen Hanabusa remains undecided as of Monday morning, with Schatz holding a small lead of less than 2,000 votes.    The ultimate winner will be a heavy favorite against Republican Cam Cavasso in November.   The winner of that November election will complete the final two years of the term that began in 2010.   Incumbent Daniel Inouye died in late 2012 and Governor Abercromie appointed Schatz as interim Senator until this upcoming special election.   Abercrombie's appointment of Schatz was counter to a request by Inouye prior to his death.   In the gubernatorial result below, you can see how well that worked out for him.

Governor:   Incumbent Neil Abercrombie was obliterated 67% to 31% by State Senator David Ige in one of the worst showings by an incumbent in history.   Ige will take on Republican Duke Aiona, a former Lt. Governor, and Independent Mufi Hannemann, the former mayor of Honolulu.   This race is expected to be close in November, with Ige slightly favored at this point.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   Both of Hawaii's Congressional Districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Hawaii elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.

Tennessee Primary Results

By 270toWin Staff - August 8, 2014

The Tennessee primary was held on Thursday August 7.   

US Senate:    Second term incumbent Lamar Alexander held off tea party challenger Joe Carr and several other candidates.  On the Democratic side, Attorney Gordon Ball narrowly edged attorney Terry Adams to win the nomination.   Senator Alexander is heavily favored to win re-election in November.  

Governor:   As expected, incumbent Bill Haslam (R) cruised to a primary victory, while Charles Brown held off three challengers on the Democratic side.   Haslam is a prohibitive favorite to be re-elected.

US House:   All vote totals can be seen here.   The composition of Tennessee's congressional House delegation is not expected to change in November.  All 9 seats (7 Republicans and 2 Democrats) are rated as safe for the incumbent party.    As of this writing, TN-04 incumbent Scott DesJarlais holds an exceptionally narrow 33 vote lead over State Senator Jim Tracy for the Republican nomination.   No winner has been declared as of yet.

Senate Simulator Launched

By 270toWin Staff - August 5, 2014

The new 270toWin Senate election simulator assesses the likelihood of Senate control based on the probabilities in each race.    As guidance for users, we start with the average of the probabilities calculated by the respective New York Times and Washington Post Senate forecast models.    

The real value-add here is that users can adjust those probabilities as they see fit, with each adjustment recalculating the overall probability.     There is also an option to run single simulations, similar to a popular presidential feature we have on the site.

Like other 270toWin features, the goal here is to actively engage users by providing tools to enable them to make their own election forecasts.   

Follow the 2014 Mid Term Election Polls

By 270toWin Staff - August 3, 2014

We've recently added poll pages for Senate, House & Governor 2014 elections.

Fun Facts About Adjacent Congressional Districts

By 270toWin Staff - February 8, 2014

Mike Bostock of the New York Times has created an interactive map that allows one to visualize all the Congressional Districts adjacent to the one selected. We decided to dig into the data behind this map to see what interesting nuggets of information there might be.   Those are presented below.   The next time any of our readers appears on Jeopardy, and the category Adjacent Congressional Districts is used, he or she will be well prepared...

  • Four Congressional Districts in the Continental US are adjacent to every other District in their state, but none outside the state.   These are:  AR-02, CT-03, NM-01 and OR-05. Considering all 50 states, both Hawaii Districts qualify as well.

adj_full_state_lg

  • An additional 190 Districts are adjacent to one or more, but not all Districts in their state and none outside the state.
  • No Districts, excluding the seven states with one At-Large District, are only adjacent to districts outside their state.   (Alaska's District is not adjacent to any others).
  • The remaining 232 Districts are adjacent to Districts both inside and outside their state.

Districts adjacent to the fewest Districts:

  • In the continental US, the only District adjacent to a single other District is NY-26.   This District, which includes Buffalo, is surrounded by NY-27 and Canada.

  • 18 Districts are linked to two others:  FL-13, FL-16, FL-19, FL-21, FL-26, LA-02, ME-01, NE-02, NM-01, NV-01, NY-20, NY-25, OH-03, PA-14, SC-01, TX-16, TX-34 and UT-04.
    • Of these, all are linked to two districts in the same state except for ME-01, NE-02 and TX-16, which are each linked to one in-state and one in an adjacent state.

Districts adjacent to the most Districts and states:

  • Four Districts are adjacent to 11 others:
    • AZ-04:          Five Districts in AZ, three in CA, two in NV and one in UT.
    • CA-04:          Ten in CA and one in NV.  (Note that CA-08, with the green dot, is adjacent to both AZ-04 and CA-04).
    • MO-06:         Three in MO , two in IA, two in IL, two in KS and two in NE.
    • OH-06:         Five in OH, three in WV, two in PA and one in KY. large_district_adj
    • Eight districts are adjacent to ten others:   AZ-01, CA-08, CO-04, FL-17, IL-16, KY-04, MD-01 and TX-04.
    • NE-03 is the only District adjacent to Districts in seven states (CO, IA, KS, MO, NE, SD and WY).
    • CO-04, SD-AL and WY-AL are adjacent to those in six states.

 Love thy Neighbor?

  • 23 Democratic seats are surrounded by only Republican-held Districts, led by AL-7 with seven.
  • Only two Republicans are surrounded by all Democrats, both in New York.   NY-11 has eight adjacent Democrats, while NY-02 has three.
  • 45 Democrats are surrounded by blue, led by MA-02 with nine.
  • 48 Republicans are surrounded by red, led by TX-04 with ten.

Final 2012 Presidential Election Electoral and Popular Vote

By 270toWin Staff - January 4, 2013

While it may come as a surprise since Election Day was about two months ago, Barack Obama and Joe Biden were not officially re-elected until today (January 4), when the electoral vote results of each state (certified by the Electors) were read and tabulated in Congress.    There were no surprises:  The final tally was Obama 332, Romney 206 for President;  Biden 332, Ryan 206 for Vice-President.     For those interested in the process of getting from the vote on Election Day to today, this article from the National Archives website provides a high-level summary.     That narrative specifies January 6th as the date for the count in Congress; we're assuming it was changed to today because the 6th is a Sunday.

The final popular vote totals were 65,899,660 for Obama-Biden (51.1%) and 60,932,152 (47.2%) for Romney-Ryan.   Visit our states area to see the 2012 popular vote percentages, and compare those to the prior 4 elections.  (Note that the very bottom part of these pages are not yet updated for 2012.) **  

In the weeks ahead, we'll be updating the site (and our iPad App) to let you start creating and sharing 2016 electoral maps.    Since both parties will have new nominees, the updates will allow you to create specific Democratic and Republican match-ups. **

Contest Recap, 2012 Election Results

By 270toWin Staff - November 13, 2012

America's Electoral Map Contest:  There were 34,342 valid entries to the contest,  15,856 entrants (one entry per day was allowed) and 5,534 unique map configurations uploaded.   The most commonly submitted map was the correct map, and was submitted 2,307 times.    The first three of these perfect entries came within an hour of the start of the contest.   In the end, this election didn't deliver any major surprises, so we expected to have quite a few perfect guesses.    In addition to the first perfect map winner, we'll be randomly selecting 3 entries this week from the remaining group of perfect entries, as per the official rules.     If any of these selections are deemed not eligible to receive a prize, a substitute winner will be selected and notified.   For those that don't win, please see the official rules for how to request a list of winners.

 

 

 

2012 Results:    We'll be updating the site over the next couple months to reflect the final 2012 presidential election results.  These are not technically official until the Electors vote and the states submit their popular vote totals in December.  We'll also begin to set the map and site up for those of you that want to begin to look ahead to 2016.

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