Election News

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Dates displayed are those when campaign launched or when an announcement is scheduled. The MAP link, where available, goes to an electoral map of that candidate vs. Hillary Clinton based on state-level polling conducted so far.

Announced

Pending Decision

No Announcement Date Set 

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270toWin continues to roll out a series of historical interactive presidential election maps. Modify results, winners and election participants to change the course of history. 

Interactive electoral maps for 46 out of 57 historical elections are now available, representing the period 1828-2012*.

*Excludes 1872. That maps as well as elections prior to 1828 should be available at a later date.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton received 57%, well ahead of Bernie Sanders who was 2nd at 15%.

Quinnipiac also surveyed general election match-ups between Clinton and eight Republicans.  The former Secretary of State leads all challengers, with Paul and Rubio closest. Each trails Clinton by 4%.  

2016 Republican Field: Running or Actively Considering

Announced

Pending Decision (Date of Announcement)

All are expected to run

No Announcement Date Set

Bush & Walker all but certain to run; at or near the top of

many early polls. 

To qualify, candidates must have filed and declared their candidacy and place in the top ten of an average of the five most recent national polls as of early August. The specific qualifying polls will be determined by Fox News.

270toWin is following the Republican primary polls and, as it happens, we also have a polling average based on the five most recent polls. While the debate is obviously a ways off, the top ten currently are:

1. Bush  
2. Walker
3. Rubio*
4. Paul*
5. Carson*
6. Huckabee*
7. Cruz*
8. Christie
9. Trump
10. Kasich

Asterisked names have declared their candidacy. Trump and Kasich were not included in all five recent surveys. Perry just missed the cut-off, with Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina* and Graham also not currently in the top ten. 

**Use the comments to let us know if you would find this feature useful and what year(s) you'd like to see first.**

One of the more popular feature requests we get is to have interactive maps for historical presidential elections. There are a lot of fans of alternate history scenarios as well as those that would like to change past electoral maps in a 'what if' kind of way.

Starting with the actual historical election result, you'll be able to modify the winner in each state and the distribution of electoral votes. You'll also be able to make some changes to the names in the race to create alternate scenarios (e.g., what if Robert Kennedy had lived and become the 1968 Democratic nominee)?

In the sample below, we have taken the 1960 election and set Illinois and Texas to undecided, putting Kennedy below the 269 electoral votes needed to win that year*. These two states' results were among many decided by 2% or less that year and were among the more controversial.

* There were 537 electoral votes in 1960, reflecting the addition of Alaska and Hawaii with 3 electoral votes each. These additions temporarily increased the size of The House from 435 to 437 Members (+100 Senators = 537). The Census reapportionment after 1960 reset the House to the required 435, while the 23rd Amendment gave Washington D.C. electoral representation with 3 electoral votes. As a result, there have been 538 electoral votes available since 1964 (435+100+3), with 270 required to win.

May 28: Former New York Governor George Pataki (R) may or may not run

May 30: Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley (D) is expected to run

June 1: South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (R) is expected to run

June 4: Former Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) is expected to run 

Declared Candidates

Democrat: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders

Republican: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio 

Exploratory Committee

Democrat: Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb

Republican: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Scott Walker

Update May 18: Bobby Jindal announces the launch of his exploratory committee

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina joins the race Monday AM. Fiorina is expected to be the only woman in the Republican field and further distinguishes herself from the field with a strong business background. Of the three announcing this week, she is likely to be seen as the most moderate. Fiorina previously ran for Senate in California in 2010, losing to incumbent Barbara Boxer. Fiorina has received minimal support in early polling; it will be interesting to see if that shifts as she becomes more well-known.

Retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson made his 2016 announcement Sunday night. The only African-American likely to run for the 2016 Republican nomination, Carson became a star in conservative circles after a well-received speech at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast. Carson has not previously run for political office. Carson has been receiving about 5% support in early polls and will be competing with Huckabee for many of the same voters.

Barack Obama won Vermont by over 35% in 2012. (As an aside, while deep blue today, Vermont voted Republican in every election from the founding of the modern party in 1854 through 1988, except for 1964).

Full results, as well as other national and state polls can be found on our 2016 polls page.

Turning to the Republican nomination, Marco Rubio led in both polls, showing 15% support in the Quinnipiac poll, 13% in the Fox News survey. Overall the field remains tightly bunched.

It is possible that some of these poll results are a bit distorted by current news: Rubio's recent 2016 announcement and enhanced scrutiny of Clinton since her official announcement. Time will tell.