Maine Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that she will forego a run for governor of her state in 2018, and (presumably) run for reelection in 2020. The four-term moderate Republican had been considering this decision for many months. Current governor Paul LePage cannot run again due to term limits.
If Collins had run, she could have remained in the Senate during the campaign. However, winning the race would have required her to step down. A replacement would have been named by LePage.
Republican Roy Moore continues to hold an 8 point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate special election race, according to a new poll by Cygnal, an Alabama-based firm. Moore leads 49% to 41%. The 8 point margin matches that of a poll released earlier this month.
Carol Shea-Porter, a Democrat representing New Hampshire's very competitive first congressional district, announced she will not seek reelection in 2018. The move was unexpected. According to the Boston Globe:
"Her decision is a political bombshell with national implications. At a time when Democrats are looking to win back a majority in the House, Shea-Porter is one of [only 12] Democrats holding office in a district that Republican Donald Trump won last year."
This is one one of the most competitive House districts in New England, which can be seen by looking at the results here since 2006, when Shea-Porter first ran:
Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn announced her bid for U.S. Senate, becoming the front-runner to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee. The move came just after termed-out incumbent Gov. Bill Haslam passed on a run for the office.
Blackburn is in her 8th term. She represents a safe Republican district in west-central Tennessee, winning reelection by nearly 49 points this past November. She (or whomever emerges as the Republican nominee) will start out as a large favorite in the 2018 Senate race. The Volunteer State last elected a Democratic Senator in 1990 (former VP Al Gore).
10/5 UPDATE: Murphy has resigned from Congress effective October 21st.
Republican Tim Murphy, in his 8th term representing southwestern Pennsylvania in the U.S. House, will not seek reelection in 2018. The pro-life congressman ran into trouble earlier this week when text messages surfaced of him urging a woman with whom he was having an affair to seek an abortion.
Murphy met with Republican leadership who apparently told him that he either had to resign or announce his retirement at the end of the current term.
Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by 8 points in Alabama's upcoming U.S. Senate special election, a new poll finds. The vote, to be held December 12th, is to elect a replacement for former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who vacated the seat earlier this year to become U.S. Attorney General. Moore became the Republican nominee by defeating incumbent Sen. Luther Strange in a party runoff last Tuesday.
This topline result is similar to the first post-runoff poll released late last week. That survey gave Moore a 5 point margin over Jones.
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09) announced she will run for U.S. Senate in 2018. This gives the party a high-profile candidate in their efforts to unseat incumbent Republican Jeff Flake. While Arizona hasn't had a Democratic Senator in over 20 years, next year's race is expected to be highly competitive. The Democratic nominee may even be favored if Flake loses a primary to former State Senator Kelli Ward. A recent poll by GBA Strategies showed him losing to Ward by a 58-31% margin.
Flake's national visibility was raised earlier this summer with the publication of his book "Conscience of a Conservative", which harshly critiqued President Trump and his own party. Needless to say, this hasn't helped his standing with Arizona Republicans. The GBA Strategies poll gave Flake just a 25% approval rating among Republican primary voters in the state.
Roy Moore has defeated Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican Senate runoff. With 53% of the vote in, Moore leads by about 13.5%, and has been declared the winner by the Associated Press.
The vote as of this writing (about 9:45 Eastern Time on Tuesday night) is below; click or tap the image to see the latest vote:
Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee will not seek reelection to a third term next year, he announced Tuesday afternoon. Corker is the first incumbent in the 2018 Senate election cycle to announce his retirement.
Looking ahead to 2018, most of the action may be in the Republican primary, as the seat is likely to stay in Republican hands. Trump won here by 26 points last November. While we don't know who will run yet, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball made an interesting point about the race on the Republican side:
Four polls released Sunday/Monday give Roy Moore a double-digit lead over Sen. Luther Strange in Tuesday's runoff for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Alabama.
Alabama-based Cygnal, in conjunction with L2, gives Moore a 52 to 41 lead over Strange. Emerson college has it 50-40 Moore. Data analytics firm Optimus has Moore at 55%, with Strange at 45%. Finally, Trafalgar Group, who did an especially good job predicting Donald Trump's win last November, gives Moore a 16 point lead, 57% to 41%. Despite Mr. Trump's support of the appointed Senator, these margins indicate a Moore victory is likely on Tuesday.
