Election News

Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn announced her bid for U.S. Senate, becoming the front-runner to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee. The move came just after termed-out incumbent Gov. Bill Haslam passed on a run for the office.  

Blackburn is in her 8th term. She represents a safe Republican district in west-central Tennessee, winning reelection by nearly 49 points this past November. She (or whomever emerges as the Republican nominee) will start out as a large favorite in the 2018 Senate race. The Volunteer State last elected a Democratic Senator in 1990 (former VP Al Gore).

10/5 UPDATE: Murphy has resigned from Congress effective October 21st.

Republican Tim Murphy, in his 8th term representing southwestern Pennsylvania in the U.S. House, will not seek reelection in 2018. The pro-life congressman ran into trouble earlier this week when text messages surfaced of him urging a woman with whom he was having an affair to seek an abortion. 

Murphy met with Republican leadership who apparently told him that he either had to resign or announce his retirement at the end of the current term.

Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by 8 points in Alabama's upcoming U.S. Senate special election, a new poll finds. The vote, to be held December 12th, is to elect a replacement for former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who vacated the seat earlier this year to become U.S. Attorney General. Moore became the Republican nominee by defeating incumbent Sen. Luther Strange in a party runoff last Tuesday.

This topline result is similar to the first post-runoff poll released late last week. That survey gave Moore a 5 point margin over Jones.

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09) announced she will run for U.S. Senate in 2018. This gives the party a high-profile candidate in their efforts to unseat incumbent Republican Jeff Flake. While Arizona hasn't had a Democratic Senator in over 20 years, next year's race is expected to be highly competitive. The Democratic nominee may even be favored if Flake loses a primary to former State Senator Kelli Ward. A recent poll by GBA Strategies showed him losing to Ward by a 58-31% margin.  

Flake's national visibility was raised earlier this summer with the publication of his book "Conscience of a Conservative", which harshly critiqued President Trump and his own party. Needless to say, this hasn't helped his standing with Arizona Republicans. The GBA Strategies poll gave Flake just a 25% approval rating among Republican primary voters in the state.

Roy Moore has defeated Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican Senate runoff.  With 53% of the vote in, Moore leads by about 13.5%, and has been declared the winner by the Associated Press.

The vote as of this writing (about 9:45 Eastern Time on Tuesday night) is below; click or tap the image to see the latest vote:

Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee will not seek reelection to a third term next year, he announced Tuesday afternoon. Corker is the first incumbent in the 2018 Senate election cycle to announce his retirement.

Looking ahead to 2018, most of the action may be in the Republican primary, as the seat is likely to stay in Republican hands. Trump won here by 26 points last November. While we don't know who will run yet, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball made an interesting point about the race on the Republican side:

Four polls released Sunday/Monday give Roy Moore a double-digit lead over Sen. Luther Strange in Tuesday's runoff for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate race in Alabama. 

Alabama-based Cygnal, in conjunction with L2, gives Moore a 52 to 41 lead over Strange. Emerson college has it 50-40 Moore. Data analytics firm Optimus has Moore at 55%, with Strange at 45%. Finally, Trafalgar Group, who did an especially good job predicting Donald Trump's win last November, gives Moore a 16 point lead, 57% to 41%. Despite Mr. Trump's support of the appointed Senator, these margins indicate a Moore victory is likely on Tuesday.

While 2017 is an off-year in the political cycle, there are still a few seats being contested this fall.

(9/26) Alabama U.S. Senate Republican Runoff:  With no candidate achieving a majority, the top two vote getters from last month's Republican primary will meet next Tuesday, with the winner moving on to the special election in December. Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of Alabama's Supreme Court won that primary, with the incumbent Senator, Luther Strange finishing 6 points back.  Moore has led in the polling conducted since the primary, sometimes by double-digits, although some polls have been much closer.  The most recent poll has him up by a 50-42% margin. Strange has the endorsement of President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell; both Trump and Vice President Pence will campaign for the incumbent prior to the runoff.

Seeking a more active role for the state in choosing the next Democratic presidential nominee, The California Legislature has approved a bill to move the presidential primary from June 2nd to March 3rd in 2020. The bill has been sent to Gov. Jerry Brown for his signature. 

The state controlled over 11% of Democratic delegates in 2016, but Hillary Clinton was already the presumptive nominee by the time the state voted that year. If the move becomes law and assuming the same roster of Super Tuesday states - and delegate distribution - in 2020, approximately 1/3 of all delegates will be awarded that day, up from about 20% in 2016. 

2nd term GOP congressman Dave Trott (MI-11) has announced he won't seek reelection to the House in 2018. Politico reports that "Trott is the third Republican to vacate a potential battleground district ahead of the 2018 midterm elections."  The 11th district sits* to the north and west of Detroit. Trott won reelection last year by almost 13%, while Trump bested Clinton by 4.5%. 

Last week saw similar decisions announced by Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08). All three districts are now potentially in play for 2018, with the Michigan and Washington races seen as toss-up; Pennsylvania as leans Republican. Of course, the quality of the nominees from each party, as well as the overall political enviroment at this time next year will determine if these districts are actually competitive.

With Trott's decision, 25 House members, including 17 Republicans and 8 Democrats, have decided to retire or run for another office.