270toWin Redesign

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

2,383 Delegates Needed to Win

The Democratic Party will nominate a 2016 presidential candidate at its convention in Philadelphia the week of July 25, 2016. Primary and caucus events will go through mid June.

Estimated Delegates Earned

2,383 delegates needed to win. Superdelegates are Party officials who can support whichever candidate they like. The total number includes superdelegates that have committed to Clinton or Sanders. It is worth noting that ‘commit’ is not the same as ‘bound’; these superdelegates are free to switch until they vote at the Democratic Convention. Delegate Counts: New York Times

The map below shows the number of delegates each state will send to the Democratic convention. Use the filters below the map to view it in different ways. Click a state to see polling detail and an overview of its primary or caucus.

February Super Tues March 2-31 April May June
186 1,015 1,470 868 275 933
% of Total
Map excludes 18 delegates separately allocated. Democratic contests allocate delegates in some manner proportional to popular vote, subject to a 15% minimum to receive any delegates. Select a radio button to display the map along the chosen dimension. Use the drop-down boxes to limit the display to specific time or type. The number of delegates and percentage of all 4,765 Democratic delegates associated with your options will display. Information is estimated and subject to change. Some states have an extended process for choosing delegates; the time used on the map is generally the start of the process. Select a state on the map for more detail. Special thanks to Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.

National Polls

The results of national polling for a preferred Democratic nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.

Source Date Sample Clinton Sanders Other
Poll Averages* 52.4% 41.4% -
IBD/TIPP 6/06/2016 351 RV ±5.3% 51% 37% 12%
Quinnipiac 6/01/2016 678 RV ±3.8% 53% 39% 8%
NBC News / WSJ 5/23/2016 342 LV ±5.3% 53% 45% 2%
CBS News/NY Times 5/19/2016 371 LV ±6% 51% 44% 5%
Pew Research 5/05/2016 738 RV 54% 42% 4%
CNN | ORC 5/02/2016 405 RV ±5% 51% 43% 6%
IBD/TIPP 4/29/2016 355 RV ±5.3% 49% 43% 8%
Suffolk University 4/25/2016 363 LV ±5.1% 50% 45% 5%
NBC News / WSJ 4/18/2016 339 LV ±5.3% 50% 48% 2%
Fox News 4/14/2016 450 LV ±4.5% 48% 46% 6%

* The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included.