Election News

Hillary Clinton has won California, according to the Associated Press (AP) and other media outlets. This gave Clinton four victories out of the six states where Democrats voted Tuesday night. More importantly, it avoided the prospect, based on tightening polls, that the presumptive Democratic nominee would lose the nation's most populous state to Bernie Sanders.

Clinton, with an estimated 2,755 delegates, is now almost 400 delegates clear of the 2,383 required to win the nomination. She's less than 200 short of achieving that number based on pledged delegates alone. 

With 82% of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by about 14 points in California. The race remains uncalled by the Associated Press at this hour.

Elsewhere Tuesday, Clinton easily won New Jersey, the other large delegate prize of night. She has also been declared the winner in New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders won in Montana and North Dakota.

Hillary Clinton has secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, according to the Associated Press. Clinton becomes the first woman in U.S. history to lead a major party in the race for the White House.

She has reached 2,383 delegates, the exact number needed to win, as an additional block of superdelegates has apparently committed to vote for her at the Democratic convention in July. 

After strong showings in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands, Hillary Clinton is poised to become the presumptive Democratic nominee Tuesday night, easily surpassing the 2,383 delegates required to win. As of Monday morning, Clinton is just 26 delegates short of the magic number.

Nearly 700 pledged delegates are available in the six contests Tuesday, which includes five primaries and the North Dakota caucus. The first polls close in New Jersey at 8PM ET. Clinton leads the polls by 21 points over Bernie Sanders there, and she will likely cross the delegate threshold before voting ends in any of the other states. 

Hillary Clinton easily defeated Bernie Sanders in Saturday's Virgin Islands caucuses, winning at least six of the U.S. territory's seven delegates. This gives Clinton 2,322 delegates, just 61 from the required 2,383.

This article indicates Clinton won all seven delegates by virtue of Sanders only receiving 12% of the vote territory-wide, below the 15% required threshold. However, the island is divided into two 'districts, and Sanders exceeded 15% in one of them. It is possible that he may have won that 7th delegate. 

For now, we are showing the totals excluding that final delegate:

Democrats in two U.S. territories vote this weekend as Hillary Clinton closes in on her party's nomination. On Saturday, 7 delegates are available in the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses. On Sunday, 60 more are available in the Puerto Rico primary.

Caucus hours in the Virgin Islands are 10AM to 6PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Saturday. Polls are open 8AM to 3PM AST in Puerto Rico on Sunday. Neither country is on Daylight Savings Time so these times are the same as Eastern Time.

The final survey from the highly-regarded Field Poll in advance of next Tuesday's California primary gives Hillary Clinton a two-point lead over Bernie Sanders. This is the third poll in the last five to show Clinton with a two-point lead. The other two polls showed her with a double-digit lead. 

Clinton lead by six in Field's last poll, conducted in early April.

Six days out, polls say the California Democratic primary is either tied or Hillary Clinton leads by double-digits. Not much in-between. 

An NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll out Tuesday has Clinton up by just two on Bernie Sanders, well within the polls margin of error. This is consistent with a PPIC poll from last week, also showing Clinton up two. However, two other polls in recent days show Clinton up from 13 to 18 points.

The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state.

The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. For now, a combination of polling, 2012 actual and pundit projections are considered.

New for 2016: The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.

Libertarians have selected former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as their party's 2016 presidential nominee. He won on the 2nd ballot at this weekend's party convention in Orlando. 

Johnson has selected former Massachusetts governor William Weld as his running mate. As of this writing, Weld has not been nominated, and there is some possibility his candidacy will be rejected.  UPDATE: Weld was nominated as Johnson's running mate.

Johnson was also the party's 2012 nominee, when he received almost 1.3 million votes, about 1% of the general election total. That marked the highest vote count for a Libertarian in any presidential election. Percentage-wise, it was slightly less than the 1.06% total that Ed Clark (VP David Koch) received in 1980. In neither case did the party win any electoral votes.