Republican Lamar Smith of Texas, head of the House Science Committee, announced his retirement Thursday afternoon. He is in his 16th term, and is the 2nd longest-serving member of the Texas House delegation. Only Rep. Joe Barton has served longer. Smith will serve out the remainder of his term.
Smith represents Texas' 21st district, a somewhat oddly-shaped area that sits primarily west of Austin and San Antonio, although it also runs north-south near I-35 between those two cities.
We've launched the 2018 Senate Race Ratings page, which summarizes how each race is viewed by three pundits. Those ratings form the basis for the 'Battle for Control' table, which shows where each party stands in its efforts to hold or regain majority status.
While the Senate is narrowly divided by party, the Battle for Control highlights the uphill battle Democrats have to take the majority in 2019. The party needs to reach 51, a net gain of 3 seats. However, Democrats currently hold 25 of the 34 Senate seats to be contested in 2018*. Once we back those out and add back in the seats the pundits all see as safe for the incumbent party, Republicans are at 48, just two shy of the 50 needed for control. After adding back in the seats that are unlikely to be competitive, Republicans have a 49 to 38 advantage.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection in 2018. The Dallas-area Republican, now in his 8th term, is chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee. He will serve out the remainder of his term.
In this deep red district, Hensarling easily won reelection last November with nearly 81% of the vote. The Democratic Party did not field a candidate; Libertarian Ken Ashby took the other 19%. Donald Trump won here by about 29 points.
Hensarling is the 20th Republican, and 30th member overall, planning to retire or run for another office in 2018.
Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona announced Tuesday that he will not seek reeelection to a 2nd term in 2018. Flake made his announcement on the Senate floor, in a speech that bemoaned the direction politics is taking in the United States.
Flake, who has had a difficult relationship with President Trump, made waves in his party earlier in the summer with his book "Conscience of a Conservative". Two polls from late summer had him trailing the much more conservative Kelli Ward by over 25% in the Republican primary. Ward is very much in the Trump/Bannon wing of the party. As Flake told The Arizona Republic "here's the bottom line: The path that I would have to travel to get the Republican nomination is a path I'm not willing to take, and that I can't in good conscience take."
The various pundits we track all had the 2018 Arizona Senate race as a toss-up, and they all reconfirmed that rating today. Interestingly, Flake's announcement might actually improve the Republican chances of holding this seat, as there are many who doubt Ward can win statewide should she take the Republican nomination. Flake's exit opens the door for other Republicans to run in 2018.
Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has set March 13, 2018, as the date for a special election to fill the vacant 18th Congressional District seat. That seat was previously held by Republican Tim Murphy, who resigned earlier this month after text messages surfaced of him urging a woman with whom he was having an affair to seek an abortion.
There are now two vacancies in the U.S. House. The other is in UT-03, vacated earlier this year by Republican Jason Chaffetz. That seat will be filled in a special election on November 7th. The current U.S. House has 239 Republicans and 194 Democrats, along with the two vacancies.
At this point, those two seats are expected to remain in Republican hands. That said, Pennsylvania Democratic governor Wolf's scheduling of the vote on a different date than the state's general 2018 primary (May 15) could benefit his party as turnout is often much lower in one-off special elections.
Updating an earlier story, nine term Republican Pat Tiberi of Ohio announced he would not seek reelection in 2018 and would resign Congress no later than January 31, 2018.
STATEMENT: It has been the most remarkable honor of my life to serve the people of #OH12. https://t.co/RUD4uQRqVv
— Rep. Pat Tiberi (@PatTiberi) October 19, 2017
Tiberi represents Ohio's 12th Congressional District, which includes areas to the north and east of Columbus. The interestingly shaped district is drawn favorably for Republicans and Tiberi easily won a 9th term last November by nearly 40 points. That said, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the seat from 'safe' to 'likely' Republican. This is due to the overall political environment coupled with the uncertainties (e.g., low turnout) often associated with special elections.
Governor John Kasich will set the date for a special election to fill the seat for the remainder of Tiberi's term. The seat, as with all 435 House Districts, will be contested again in the midterms on November 6, 2018.
The New York Times reports that nine-term Republican Pat Tiberi (OH-12) may resign from Congress to take a position with a business consortium in Ohio. Tiberi is an influential member of the House Ways and Means Committee and was a close ally of former House speaker John Boehner.
An announcement is possible as soon as this week.
A new poll from Fox News finds the Alabama Senate race a dead heat. Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones are both at 42%, with 11% unsure. The special election is about seven weeks out, on December 12th. The poll surveyed 801 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.5%. The full topline for the poll can be found here.
This is the first poll to show the race this competitive; the last two polls have had Moore up 8% in a state that Donald Trump won by about 28%. Whether the poll marks a shift in voter sentiment or is an outlier remains to be seen.
Maine Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that she will forego a run for governor of her state in 2018, and (presumably) run for reelection in 2020. The four-term moderate Republican had been considering this decision for many months. Current governor Paul LePage cannot run again due to term limits.
If Collins had run, she could have remained in the Senate during the campaign. However, winning the race would have required her to step down. A replacement would have been named by LePage.
Republican Roy Moore continues to hold an 8 point lead over Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate special election race, according to a new poll by Cygnal, an Alabama-based firm. Moore leads 49% to 41%. The 8 point margin matches that of a poll released earlier this month.
