Election News

Once Grimm leaves office, the seat will be vacant until a special election is held.   By New York law, the governor (Andrew Cuomo (D)) will announce a date for a special election, which will be 70 to 80 days after the date he makes the announcement, but no later than next November's general election.  (This time period was extended from 30 to 40 days in 2011, to provide ample time for overseas military personnel to cast their ballots).

Grimm won a third term in Congress in November, defeating Democrat Domenic Recchia by 13%, a surprisingly large margin in this competitive district.  Absent the incumbent, the special election will likely be hard-fought by both parties.

• Senate: Republicans gained 9 seats, giving them 54 in the new Senate. To view the new Senate, see our 2015 Senate map.

• House: Republicans gained 13 seats, giving them 247 in the new House. The last time Republicans had this kind of majority was in the 80th Congress (1947-49), when they held 246 seats. Interestingly, that was the 'Do Nothing' Congress, so-named by Democratic president Harry S. Truman. Republicans lost 75 seats in the subsequent election.
  

• Governor: Republicans will control 31 governorships next year, up from 29 this year. Democrats lost 3 seats, with one of those going to an independent in Alaska.

The map is colored to reflect the party composition of Senators in each state. Hover over (or tap) a state to see its Senators. The table under the map divides the Senate by class  / next election date. For those Senators up in 2016, we list the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball. 

A party breakdown of those classes can be seen to the right of the map.  Interestingly, each class is currently heavily stacked toward one party or the other. There's no historical reason for this distribution. In fact, with no state's two Senators in the same class, it seems like an unlikely evolution.  Yet that is where we are, and 2016 will have 24 Republican seats up for grabs vs. just 10 currently held by Democrats.

The first image below shows the projected winner in each race; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer races in the polls (AK, CO, GA, IA) trended more Republican in recent days. Kansas was the closest race, with Greg Orman remaining slightly ahead in the end.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

The first image below shows the projected winner by state; the 2nd the percentage distribution. The closer states (AK, CO, GA, IA) have been trending Republican in recent days. Kansas continues to be pretty consistent at around 60% for Greg Orman.

While this forecast says Georgia and Louisiana will ultimately go Republican, it is worth noting where we'll be after Election Day. If there are runoffs in both Georgia (possible) and Louisiana (very likely), and no decision by Greg Orman on party affiliation, Republicans would have 50 seats heading into the Louisiana runoff, one short of the number needed to officially control the Senate.     

• Uncontested: 32 seats (16 Democrat, 16 Republican) are completely uncontested. This includes 7 of Georgia's 14 Districts and 6 of the 9 in Massachusetts. The incumbent is running in 30 of these races: Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11 opted to run for Senate, while Ralph Hall (R) TX-4 was defeated in his party's primary.

• No Major Party Opposition: 37 seats (20 Democrat, 17 Republican) pit one major party against one or more 3rd party or independent candidates. While acknowledging that the election hasn't yet occurred, none of these appear to be competitive races. (Two of these districts, LA-2 and LA-3 have multiple candidates from the major party as well as 3rd party/independent opposition, owing to the open primary that will take place on Election Day). 

• Both Candidates From Same Party: 8 seats (5 Democrat, 3 Republican). 7 of these are from California, 1 from Washington. These states hold 'top two' primaries, where the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. 

Data for this review was gathered from and is courtesy of The Green Papers and Wikipedia. If we've missed anything, please let us know.

Senate:  Incumbent Jack Reed (D) will meet Marketing Consultant Mark Zaccaria in November; both won uncontested primaries.   Reed is a heavy favorite to be reelected; our Senate simulator currently shows a a <99% probability.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both Congressional districts are safely Democratic.

To see the current roster of Rhode Island elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.

Senate:  As expected, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown won the Republican nomination, getting approximately 50% of the vote in the primary.   Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen was unopposed on the Democratic side.   Shaheen has led Brown in most polling to date and our Senate simulator currently gives her a 95% chance of being reelected.

US House: All vote totals can be seen here.    Both of New Hampshire's congressional districts, held by Democrats in their first term, are seen as competitive this November

NH-01: Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter ran unopposed.  She will meet former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who held off Dan Innis for the Republican nomination.  The district includes the southeastern part of the state.

NH-02:  Incumbent Ann Kuster also ran unopposed.   State Representative Marilinda Garcia won her primary fairly easily.

To see the current roster of New Hampshire elected officials, or look up those from any address in the country, use our Who Represents Me feature.