Election News

As in prior dates, the candidates will be ordered by polling averages. CNN is using the average of national polls from November and December. Donald Trump will again hold center stage, flanked on his left by a surgng Ted Cruz and on his right by a fading Ben Carson. Marco Rubio, will be to Carson's right. Given the direction of the race today, these two probably should be switched, but they didn't ask our opinion. Jeb Bush will be to Cruz's left, with Chris Christie and Rand Paul on that end. On the other end, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich will be to the right of Rubio. 

Turning to the polls, we've compiled the national 270toWin polling average for these nine, as well as that average for the first two voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. These averages include the five most recent polls, which is different than the CNN criteria.

While the top 3 are the same in all three locations, note that the recent ascendency of Ted Cruz in Iowa has not yet translated into New Hampshire. 

NPR has put together a nice summary of what each candidate needs to accomplish and avoid in the debate. 

As a result, there will be 8, perhaps 9 participants in the main Republican debate. The final determination will come after this weekend.

The Democrats will debate next Saturday in Manchester, Vermont. ABC will host the debate beginning at 8PM ET. Co-sponsor WMUR, an ABC affiliate and New Hampshire's most influential television station was dumped from the event today because of a labor dispute with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. This prevented a possible scenario where the participants would have to cross a picket line to attend the debate.

Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley, the three remaining Democrats in the race, are expected to participate.

The CNN poll was conducted from November 28 to December 6, while Monmouth did their survey from December 3 to December 6. The San Bernardino terrorist attack took place on December 2nd, so Monmouth's poll was conducted entirely after that. One would think Trump's numbers would improve or at least be steady after that incident, so the sampling dates don't seem to explain what is a huge difference between these two polls. 

The poll also looked at how each candidate would do against Clinton with a subset of Latino voters. No great surprise here, as Clinton beats Bush, Cruz and Carson by about 25%, and Trump by 42% with that segment. Rubio performs best, with a 19 point deficit. 

Rubio gained 11 points, after trailing with Latinos by 30 points in the prior MSNBC survey, conducted in September. In fact, where comparisions are available, each Republican's relative support with Latinos is up, and Republicans are generally outperforming 2012 actual results. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 44 points, 71% to 27% in that year's presidential election. Even Trump, vilified by Latinos for his stance on immigration, is running no worse than that at this point. 

Less than two months from the Iowa Republican caucus, Trump remains the undisputed national frontrunner in the still-crowded Republican field. 

New: 3rd Party / Independent Electoral Map

It's pure speculation at this point, but if Trump were to continue dominating the Republican field, it's possible we could see one or more high-profile candidates jump into the race as independents or with a 3rd party. Perhaps a defeated Republican or former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. On the other hand, if Trump is pushed aside 'unfairly', he might choose to take his considerable base and run as an independent himself. While unlikely, this could lead to electoral votes being won outside the two major parties.

Our new electoral map lets you game out such scenarios. Try it out!

The Democrats will debate on December 19th from Manchester, New Hampshire.

Two Months

We're exactly two months out from the start of the 2016 election calendar. On February 1, 2016, the Republican and Democratic caucuses in Iowa will take place. On the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a small lead over Ben Carson in the 270toWin polling average, although the most recent polls have Ted Cruz overtaking Carson. Marco Rubio is also seeing double-digit support. Interest drops off quickly after that, with the two most recent Iowa winners (Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee) not apparently making much of an impact.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is averaging 53%, with Bernie Sanders at 37% and Martin O'Malley at 5%. It is worth noting, however, that two polls out just before Thanksgiving had Clinton ahead by less than 10%. It is also worth noting that the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus has gone on to be the Democratic nominee for the last five cycles, including three competitive elections (i.e., no Democratic presidential incumbent). Those were Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008.

There will also be an undercard debate. Any candidate not making the main stage who saw at least 1% support in four separate national, Iowa or New Hampshire polls will make the cut. At this point, that list includes Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. 

If the above holds, Christie will return to the main stage after being relegated to the undercard in the Fox Business debate earlier this month. He has mainly outperformed the criteria in New Hamsphire. Graham and Pataki will get back on stage after also being excluded in the last debate. Jim Gilmore, who has only participated in one debate, will continue to be on the sidelines.

CORRECTION: The original version of this story said that Jim Gilmore had not been invited to any of the Republican debates. He was invited, and did particpate, in the undercard debate hosted by Fox News on 8/6/15.

National: Two polls out today, one from Washington Post/ABC News (WP/ABC) and one from Fox News give Donald Trump a 10 point lead over Ben Carson. Trump's 32% number in the WP/ABC poll matches the highest level of support he has received in any poll thus far. However, it is worth noting that this prior 32% was in last month's WP/ABC survey. The Fox poll saw less combined support for Trump and Carson (54% WP/ABC vs. 46% Fox) and more (28% Fox vs. 19% WP/ABC) for Rubio/Cruz. Cruz reached 14% in the Fox poll, tying Rubio and also tying his best performance to date. Most recent polls have these four candidates taking nearly 75% of voter support.

Early Voting States: CBS and YouGov released their latest Battleground Tracker series today, individually polling the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina.

Notable here is Ted Cruz at 21% in Iowa; he was at 12% in the October CBS/YouGov poll. Much of that gain came at the expense of Ben Carson, who fell from 27% to 19%.

Finally, there was a separate New Hampshire poll from Suffolk University and Boston Globe. Trump led with 22%, double that of Marco Rubio, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz who were around 10%. This is in line with other recent live polls from that state. What was notable, however, was that the pollsters asked about preference if Mitt Romney were in the race. The 2012 Republican nominee dominated that survey, with 31% double that of second place Donald Trump, at 15%. Romney has repeatedly said he's not interested in running.

Democrats: Hillary Clinton maintains a dominant lead over Bernie Sanders, up by over 20% in both of today's polls.

Looking past the top four, Jeb Bush seems to be in his own grouping, well back of Rubio and Cruz, but well ahead of the five candidates averaging around 3%.

With the holiday season upon us, the race for the nomination may quiet down for a few weeks with fewer polls and only one debate scheduled (December 15 in Las Vegas). As a result, absent any major gaffes, the relative position of the candidates may not change much until the race really kicks into high gear in early January, preceding the first primary/caucus events in early February.