Election News

The next Republican debate is scheduled for December 15 in Las Vegas. It will be hosted by CNN.

==

Preliminary Results

More than 50% of those participating in our overnight snap poll thought Donald Trump won the Fox Business main stage debate last night. Marco Rubio was a distant second with 16%. Trump and Rubio were also 1-2 in the recent CNBC debate, although a much closer 39% to 22%. Rand Paul had a better night according to our respondents, coming in 3rd at 10%; he had a lackluster 3% in the prior debate.

Only 4% thought Ben Carson, roughly tied with Trump in the national Republican polls, won the debate. Coming in dead last out of the eight participants was Jeb Bush.

Thanks to everyone that participated in our overnight snap poll. While we eliminated obvious duplicate votes from the results, we do want to note that this is just a response by those that chose to participate, and not a random sample.

Eight candidates qualified for this debate, with Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee not qualifying based on the 2.5% polling support cut-off set by the sponsors. Relegated to the earlier forum, these two will square off against Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum. Not invited at all were Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. As with previous debates, there has been no shortage of controvsery about the qualifying criteria. It is probably more justified in this case due to the limited number of polls included in the average as well as the polls chosen for inclusion. (One could argue Fox Business chose polls to get the results they wanted). In any case, as we've noted before (see last couple paragraphs), choosing participants based on national polls and miniscule differences in polling is illogical.

For those unfamiliar, Fox Business Network can be found in HD on Dish Network channel 206, DIRECTV channel 359, FiOS channel 617 and U-verse channel 1211. For other providers, including cable, use this Fox Business search tool.

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio continue to make up the 2nd tier in Iowa, and are essentially tied for 3rd. Taken together, the four candidates at the head of the Republican field are now receiving over 70% share.

On the Democratic side, CNN | ORC found Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders 55% to 37%, slightly tighter than other recent Iowa Democratic polls.

The Iowa Caucuses are 87 days out on February 1, 2016. 

The next Republican debate, hosted by Fox Business Network and the Wall Street Journal, will take place next Tuesday, November 10th in Milwaukee. As with prior events, there will be a main event (8PM ET) and an earlier debate for those that don't make the cut. Fox Business has previously said that candidates must have a 2.5% average in the four most recent polls through today to make the main stage. 

We don't know which polls Fox will use, but it looks like Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee's 4% will be enough to keep them in the main debate; Chris Christie may fall just short. The official lineup is expected to be announced tomorrow evening.

Louisiana will conduct a runoff for governor on November 21st. Unlike the above races won by Republicans, Democrat Jon Bel Edwards seems to be taking the lead against Senator David Vitter. 

A number of mayoral races took place today. Democrat Jennifer Roberts won in Charlotte as did James Kenney in Philadelphia. Democrat Joe Hogsett was victorious in Indianapolis. Houston and San Francisco, among many other cities, will also elect a mayor tonight.

• Thirteen Republicans, Eleven Democrats
• Nine (6 R, 3 D) are in competitive districts; rated toss-up or lean in 2016 per Sabato's Crystal Ball
• Ten are retiring (8 R, 2 D) while twelve are seeking a Senate seat (7 D, 5 R)

This list excludes anyone who has already departed the Congress, most recently former Speaker John Boehner whose seat (OH-8) will remain vacant until a special election next June.

To look up your elected officials, or those of any location in the country, use our Who Represents Me lookup. We also have a 2016 House Election Interactive Map.

Lessig was receiving minimal support in national polls and may not have even qualified on the prior rules. However, he was starting to see small support (about 1%) in some recent New Hampshire and Iowa polls.  

The next Democratic forum will be this Friday, November 6th, at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. It will start at 8PM ET and be hosted by MSNBC. This event is not technically a debate; it is expected to feature moderator Rachel Maddow speaking conversationally with each of the three remaining Democrats (Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley) 

Three states have gubernatorial elections this year, with two of them taking place on Election Day. Mississippi governor Phil Bryant is expected to easily win reelection to a second term. A much more competitive race is on tap in Kentucky to replace term-limited Democrat Steve Beshear. Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway is up against Republican businessman Matt Bevin. Both Conway and Bevin have previously lost races for the U.S. Senate. Recent polling has shown a consistent but small lead for Conway, although one poll out over the weekend showed a tie. Independent Drew Curtis is also in the race. That's noteworthy for two reasons. First, while he's not expected to win, he is polling around 5%; some of those votes could find their way to one of the party candidates which could be significant in a very tight election. Second, Curtis is the founder of Fark.com, an irreverent stream of user-generated takes on the day's headlines which can be pretty amusing.

Louisiana will also elect a new governor this month to replace term-limited Bobby Jindal. The state held its 'jungle primary' on October 24th, where candidates from all parties competed. Since no candidate acheived 50%, the top two will compete in a runoff on November 21st. Sitting Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter will face off against Democratic state legislator John Bel Edwards. The race, which was once seen as safe Republican, has been trending closer, with Edwards leading Vitter in some polls. Most pundits still give a slight edge to Vitter. If Vitter does win, he will get to appoint his replacement in the Senate. Depending on when Vitter resigns his Senate seat, there may or may not be a special election for that seat in 2016. Regardless of which way that goes, the seat currently held by Vitter is one of 34 Senate seats to be contested in 2016. 

Ted Cruz was third with about 10% support. Ben Carson, who had been gaining on Trump in several recent polls, even taking the lead in Iowa, was seen as the winner by 8.5%, about the same as John Kasich. Considering their relative position coming into the debate, this could be interpreted as a very good showing by the Ohio governor. We shall see if this translates into improved polling in the weeks ahead.

The remaining 5 participants had less than 5% support. Interestingly, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush both received about 3% in the poll, even though pundits have widely praised the New Jersey governor's performance while panning that of the former Florida governor. 

Thanks to everyone that participated in our overnight snap poll. While we eliminated obvious duplicate votes from the results, we do want to note that this is just a response by those that chose to participate, and not a random sample.