March 10, 2019
A new poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers finds Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders well ahead in a large Democratic field. The former vice-president receives 27% support, essentially tied with the 25% garnered by the Vermont Senator. While eleven others had measurable support, none received more than 10%.
It is not surprising to see Biden and Sanders as frontrunners. This far out - the caucus is February 3, 2020 - name recognition goes a long way in a poll. That these two are running neck-and-neck is also interesting, as the two represent different wings of the Democratic party that will eventually need to settle on a single nominee that can effectively take on President Trump. Sanders, who challenged eventual nominee Hillary Clinton from the left in 2016, has seen the party move in his direction during the Trump administration. Biden is seen as more centrist - 70% of poll respondents said his political views are "about right", not too conservative or liberal.
Biden has still not announced if he will pursue the presidency in 2020. We should know his decision in the next few weeks. The race takes on a whole new dynamic if he passes, as it is unclear if a single candidate would pick up the bulk of that centrist support, or if it would fragment among others, including former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (if he runs) and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
Georgia will fill two vacancies in its state house, including a battleground district in suburban Atlanta. There's also a special primary in Wisconsin.
Adams, Garcia, Wiley and Yang all see double-digit support, with Adams reaching majority support in the ranked choice simulation
The former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned after being elected to Congress in an April special election.
She joins what will be a crowded field hoping to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt
This move was widely expected and is now official. The Florida senate seat is one of 34 to be contested in 2022.