Election News

This article is the first written for us by Seth Moskowitz, who will be contributing to 270toWin during the 2020 election.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will elect the state legislature responsible for drawing state and congressional district lines following the 2020 Census, a task that will define the state’s political landscape for a decade.  If Democrats can flip both chambers of Virginia’s General Assembly, the party will have unilateral power over this crucial process. The election has attracted unusual attention for a state legislative contest, bringing in over $52 million in campaign donations and attracting national political figures including Vice President Mike Pence, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders to headline campaign events.

The Virginia election kicks off Democrats' 2019 and 2020 plan to claw back from the 958 state legislative seat deficit the party incurred during the Obama presidency. These down-ballot net losses gave Republicans the power to draw 193 congressional districts following the 2010 Census; Democrats had control over just 44. This cemented a Republican bias in the House of Representatives as well as in many state legislatures. Democrats are determined to take this power back from the GOP. Virginia presents their first chance at flipping a closely-divided state legislative body that will be in power following the 2020 Census. Given that Democrats already hold the Governorship, which is not up for election until 2021, if the party can win majorities in both legislative chambers, it will have control over redistricting.

Sunday marks one year until the 59th presidential election on November 3, 2020. That's 366 days, including an extra day due to the leap year. 

If you'd like to make your first 2020 forecast, the map below might be a good starting point. It shows all states decided by 10 points or less in 2016. Those states decided by less than 5 points are shown as toss up, while those over 5 but less than 10 are shown as leaning toward the winning party.

If you haven't yet tried our redesigned format, and would like to view the map there, use this link.  

Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke ended his presidential campaign Friday.  He posted a statement with the announcement. O'Rourke said, in part:

"Though it is difficult to accept, it is clear to me now that this campaign does not have the means to move forward successfully. My service to the country will not be as a candidate or as the nominee. Acknowledging this now is in the best interests of those in the campaign; it is in the best interests of this party as we seek to unify around a nominee; and it is in the best interests of the country."

Rep. Katie Hill resigned her seat as of Friday. The House now has 233 Democrats, 197 Republican, one independent and four vacancies. 

The four vacancies will be filled by special election in 2020. Ratings are subject to change. 

Longtime Oregon Rep. Greg Walden said Monday that he will not seek a 12th term in 2020. Walden, the only Republican among his state's congressional delegation, represents a conservative constituency covering the eastern 2/3 of the state.  Oregon's 2nd district is the 6th largest congressional district by land area in the United States, trailing only New Mexico's 2nd in size among states with more than one at-large district.

Walden's 17 point margin of victory in 2018 was the smallest of his career. After winning his first term by about 27 points in 1998, he never had a re-election margin lower than 35 points. Donald Trump won here by about 20 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and the district will continue to be rated 'Safe Republican' for 2020.

Politico reports that California Democratic Rep. Katie Hill is expected to resign this week. She has been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over an improper relationship with a member of her staff.  News emerged over the weekend that she gave the staffer the highest "2018 election bonus" of those in her office. This follows earlier news of an affair that predated her time in Congress, although this was not part of the ethics probe.

Hill is in her first term representing California's 25th district, north of Los Angeles. She defeated GOP incumbent Steve Knight by about 9% in 2018, becoming the first Democrat to win an election in the 25th district this decade*.  This was one of 7 districts in the Golden State to flip to the Democrats in that year's midterm elections. 

Amy Klobuchar has qualified for the November Democratic debate. Separately, details have been announced for the Party's December debate, the final one of 2019.

5th Debate - November 20 - Atlanta, GA

Sen. Klobuchar of Minnesota received 3% in a national Quinnipiac survey this past Thursday, giving her enough qualifying polls to make the November debate stage. She is the 9th candidate to meet both the polling and fundraising requirements. 

Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings of Maryland (MD-7) died October 17.  His passing brings to 3 the number of vacancies in the U.S. House.  The other two openings were held by Republicans. Chris Collins (NY-27) resigned earlier this month, while Sean Duffy (WI-7) resigned in September. 

Democrats control the chamber 234-197, with one independent.

Tuesday's debate, in Westerville, Ohio, will feature 12 candidates. It will be broadcast from 8:00 PM to 11:00 PM ET on several CNN networks as well as online at nytimes.com and cnn.com.  No opening statements. Candidates will have 75 seconds to answer questions and 45 seconds for rebuttals.

Here's the stage, from left to right:

Louisiana will have a gubernatorial runoff election on November 16, after Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards failed to win a majority of the vote in Saturday's all-party primary. Edwards will meet Republican businessman Eddie Rispone, who edged Rep. Ralph Abraham.

Although the 50 U.S. governorships are currently pretty evenly split (27 R, 23 D), Edwards is one of the only Democrats holding the office in the South. That position is a bit more precarious heading into the November runoff, as the two primary GOP challengers combined for about 51% of the vote. Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the race from Leans Democratic to Toss Up.