October 27, 2019
Politico reports that California Democratic Rep. Katie Hill is expected to resign this week. She has been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over an improper relationship with a member of her staff. News emerged over the weekend that she gave the staffer the highest "2018 election bonus" of those in her office. This follows earlier news of an affair that predated her time in Congress, although this was not part of the ethics probe.
Hill is in her first term representing California's 25th district, north of Los Angeles. She defeated GOP incumbent Steve Knight by about 9% in 2018, becoming the first Democrat to win an election in the 25th district this decade*. This was one of 7 districts in the Golden State to flip to the Democrats in that year's midterm elections.
The district had been rated 'Likely Democrat' for 2020. With this expected resignation, Cook Political is changing that to 'Leans Democrat'. Other forecasters may do that in the days ahead.
* No Democrat has won in the 25th district since 1990. However, the boundaries were different prior to redistricting after the 2010 Census.
He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.