November 1, 2019
Rep. Katie Hill resigned her seat as of Friday. The House now has 233 Democrats, 197 Republican, one independent and four vacancies.
The four vacancies will be filled by special election in 2020. Ratings are subject to change.
CA-25 (Date TBA): As noted above, Democrat Katie Hill resigned November 1. A possible date for the special primary election is March 3, the same date as the state's scheduled 2020 primary. Assuming that is the case, that date will also see 25th District voters nominating candidates for the November 3 general election on a separate ballot. In both cases, all candidates from all parties will appear together. For the regular primary election, the top-two finishers, regardless of party, will advance to the November election. In the special election, the top-two will advance to a May runoff, unless one candidate gets a majority of the vote on March 3. Leans Democratic.
MD-7 (April 28, 2020): Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings died October 17. The April special election date is the same as the state's scheduled 2020 primary election. Safe Democratic.
NY-27 (Date TBA): Republican Rep. Chris Collins resigned October 1, the same day he plead guilty to insider trading charges. Under indictment during the 2018 midterms, Collins was re-elected by less than 1% despite the conservative lean of his district; Donald Trump won here by about 25% in 2016; that margin is a better reflection of how the special election is likely to go. Safe Republican.
WI-7 (May 12, 2020): Republican Rep. Sean Duffy resigned September 23 to address a family health issue. The special election was originally scheduled for January 27, 2020, but had to be moved to a later date due to a conflict between federal and state election laws. Likely to Safe Republican.
He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.